Will the Bears trade the No. 1 pick?
What the Bears do with the No. 1 pick in the draft is a key point in the offseason. They have three options:
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They could take Caleb Williams, the best quarterback in the class, and trade for Justin Fields
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They could trade picks with Fields and hold on
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They could draft Williams and Keep field
The third option makes sense from a team-building perspective. That leaves the Bears with two throws on the quarterback dartboard, or at least letting Williams work in the background until he’s ready to replace Fields as the starter. But once you include relationships, contracts and agents, things get tricky. If Chicago selects Williams, they will be operating on a new schedule and will be looking to get the most value out of Fields for an available quarterback in a down year. If they bet on Williams with a slew of draft picks, they’d be firmly entrenched in winning mode now, with Fields’ extension imminent.
The decision will come soon. We’re approaching the anniversary of Chicago exchanging last year’s No. 1 pick for a series of draft picks, including what ended up being the No. 1 pick in this year’s class. There are reports that if the Bears choose to go the Williams route, they will seek to make a deal early and trade Fields before free agency opens on March 13.
It’s hard to imagine the Bears losing their top spot two years in a row. Fields has shown subtle signs of improvement, but not enough to surpass Williams.
Where will the big-name free agent running back land?
We’ve been a year away from sky-falling discussions about running backs and their contracts. But we’re also just coming off a season in which running the ball is as valuable as it has been in recent seasons — and Christian McCaffrey beats the backside drum for a championship-caliber offense Cornerstone.
This year’s free agent class is filled with the biggest stars at the position. Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard and Derrick Henry will play. Further down the list are DeAndre Swift, Austin Ekeler and Gus Edwards.
Running back is the most interchangeable position in the league. Given the injury rate, teams don’t want to focus a high percentage of their salary cap on one guy, preferring to spread the cost or invest money into the offensive line, a.k.a. the unit that lets the running game sing.
This is logical. But with the salary cap soaring, teams may be willing to spend extra money to acquire top players. Who wouldn’t want to see Henry or Jacobs in the backfield with Lamar Jackson in Baltimore? How about Barkley with the Chiefs?
Last year’s free agency period represented a crisis point for the position.but if this A group of runners unable to get multi-year contracts would be a new low if they were offered decent compensation.
Will Kirk Cousins leave Minnesota in free agency?
Despite tearing his Achilles last year, Cousins is still the best quarterback on the market this offseason. When Justin Jefferson missed time last season, he kept the Vikings offense above water and ranked between the fifth and eighth most effective quarterbacks in the league’s dumbest metric.
The top eight quarterbacks rarely, if ever, become free agents. If they do, it’s usually because they’re coming off an injury (Peyton Manning, Drew Brees) or they’re retiring and tired of their coach (Tom Brady).
Cousins is only 35 years old, which makes him a baby compared to some of the quarterbacks who have transformed franchises in recent seasons. You can scoff at Cousins’ place on the quarterback charts or his performance in big games, but the market will still be rich this offseason. Cousins would be an immediate upgrade for a playoff-hungry Falcons, Steelers, Raiders or Broncos team.
When Cousins last hit free agency, he reluctantly signed an unprecedented, fully guaranteed three-year deal. Somehow, despite the injury, he might be more impactful this time around. With teams in high demand and the quarterback market thin, his contract could end up reaching $60 per year.
Any trade for Cousins would likely be too expensive for Minnesota. Even with Cousins, the Vikings might be in the league’s wasteland of mediocrity: not good enough to edge past the San Francisco 49ers in the playoffs, but good enough to throw in the towel and tank. Their cleanest option would be to re-recruit Cousins and return to action in the NFL’s youth varsity conference, but they have already indicated they are unwilling to sign another fully guaranteed contract. If one or two other bidders raise the price, he may play elsewhere next season.
Does Russell Wilson have any juice left?
Wilson’s time in Denver was a disaster. What started as a game to catch up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs ended in embarrassment. The relationship between Sean Payton and Wilson sparked a series of problems on and off the field last season that worsened enough for the players association to investigate.
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However, if Cousins returns to Minnesota, Wilson will be the top veteran quarterback available. And there will be a market. Short of trading Fields or grabbing gold in the draft, there are few avenues for teams to upgrade their quarterback. Teams that take their last chance on a young quarterback — the Steelers, Raiders, and maybe the Patriots — will likely view Wilson as a steady hand who still has that arm. some life.
Can the Chiefs keep the core of their defense?
Kansas City enters the offseason in better shape than ever: They’re trying to maintain a decade of dynasty dominance while closing in on the first three-peat in league history.
This raises some tough questions. How will they rebuild the spacious receiving room? Is their offensive line good enough? Can they keep much of their star-studded defense intact while maintaining salary cap flexibility?
The Chiefs’ defense helped them get through a rough patch last season. At the heart of it are all-world defensive lineman Chris Jones and All-Pro cornerback LaJarius Snead. Both are set to become free agents in a few weeks. The cost of retaining this duo is high, and with the team only able to franchise tag one of them, all signs point to that being Snead.
No team in the league is better at bringing in backup-level players and getting them to perform above their career averages than the Chiefs. But Jones and Snead represent different things. They are two punchers at two of the most valuable positions in the defense.
Considering the investment the Chiefs have made at cornerback in recent years, they may Life without Snead long-term, although not lowering the 2024 cap hit. From a cold financial perspective, the Chiefs should let a player go and reinvest their money into the roster. Emotionally, they have a responsibility to bring back two Division I stars for a three-game winning streak, even if they have to pay taxes in the coming years.
Who will be the most traded star?
The past few offseasons have been dominated by trades: Aaron Rodgers to Jets; AJ Brown to Eagles; Davante Adams to Raiders Team; Tyreek Hill to Dolphins. All of these are transformative, although some are more effective than others.
There will be a lot of big-name players up for grabs this offseason. The Vikings have turned their noses up at a potential trade for Jefferson. But that could change things if Cousins leaves in free agency. Tag and trade rumors continue to hang over Snead (Chiefs), Tee Higgins (Bengals), Barkley (Giants) and a host of potential free agents.
There will be other names available. The Bills could help their salary cap position by trading away Stefon Diggs. The Saints (as always) need to cut some payroll, which could lead to Alvin Kamara taking the field. The Chargers face cap hell and need to cut or trade a number of stars, including Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack and Mike Williams. The Broncos will likely move Jerry Jeudy up in the draft in any discussion to try and grab a top quarterback. With Antonio Pierce as full-time head coach, Adams appears to be settling in in Vegas, but that could change if Rodgers and the Jets come calling.
However, the most impactful trade target may be Brandon Aiyuk. The Niners have yet to come to an agreement with the receiver on a long-term extension. “Brandon is a guy we want to keep long-term,” Niners general manager John Lynch said at the combine. But San Francisco is paying the price for multiple deep playoff runs. Over the past two seasons, they’ve tipped Trent Williams, Arik Armstead, Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel, Fred Warner and George Kittle Handed out lucrative contracts while absorbing McCaffrey’s contract. Someone has to be the oddball player.
A salary boom could help the Niners retain Aiyuk. But if the receiver wants a top-tier salary in the league ($25 million per year), San Francisco will have a hard time accepting it.
