Could Ichiro Suzuki become just the second player ever to be unanimously inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum? Can Billy Wagner get the five votes he missed last year heading into his final year of eligibility? Will CC Sabathia reach Cooperstown on his first try?
All three scenarios will arise before the Hall of Fame voting results are announced on Jan. 21.
Voting was conducted by the Baseball Writers Association of America’s nearly 400 voting-eligible members; as of Tuesday afternoon, all 151 votes recorded on Ryan Thibodaux’s Baseball Hall of Fame tracker had the box next to Suzuki’s name checked.
So far, only famed Yankees closer Mariano Rivera has been unanimously elected to the Hall of Fame – not Babe Ruth, not Hank Aaron, not Ken Griffey Jr., and not Derry G. Jeter, only Rivera. Will Suzuki be second?
Thibodeau said he doesn’t expect to have an answer until official results are announced.
“We haven’t seen him leave any votes, and my guess is we won’t see any until the results are in,” Thibodeau said in a Bluesky direct message earlier this week. “If someone had left him, we probably wouldn’t have found out until after the fact, if at all.”
Jeter lost one vote in 2020 and Griffey lost three votes in 2016.
Voters are not required to release their votes, but the Hall of Fame does allow voters to check a box on the ballot to release their choice after the vote is announced. Last year, a total of 385 ballots were returned, with 306 voters choosing to make their ballots public. Neither the voters who passed on Jeter in 2020 nor the three voters who passed on Griffey in 2016 have been revealed.
Suzuki isn’t the only candidate leaning toward entry. Sabathia’s approval rating was 140, or 92.7 percent, which bodes well for a first-year nominee.
“I’ll admit, I’m a little surprised by the strength of CC’s support so far. I thought he was probably a 75% bubble candidate, but he’s going well so far and has been in the mid-90s for much of the voting season. ,” Thibodeau wrote. “Unless late public and private voters have drastically different assessments of Sabathia’s credentials, it appears he will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.”
FanGraphs’ Jay Jaffe, author of “The Cooperstown Casebook,” said he was surprised by Sabathia’s performance on the first-year ballot.
“I thought he was going to creak like (Joe) Mauer did last year,” said Jaffe, who created the Jaffe War Scoring System (JAWS) that Hall of Fame voters often cite to help put candidates into historical perspective. “I don’t expect him to stay at 92 percent or even 90 percent, but I think there’s a good chance he’ll be above 80 percent.”
Wagner is on the ballot for the tenth and final time. A year ago, his score was just below 75%, but now he is steadily on his way to being hired. As of Tuesday afternoon, he had an approval rating of 84.1% among public ballots.
It wasn’t just the raw numbers that worked in Wagner’s favor; The trend is also behind him. After just missing out, he was added to eight ballots that did not include him last year, and of the 141 public ballots submitted, no one who checked his name last year chose him this year. Eight other first-time voters also voted for Wagner.
“There are many more first-time voters, and he needs to maintain the solid support of that group,” Thibodeau wrote. “Dozens of older voters are also likely to drop out of the rolls this year. If he happens to have extremely strong support among them, there may be a lot of work to do to get him across the finish line.
As of Tuesday afternoon, Carlos Beltrán had 79.5% of the vote and Andruw Jones had 74.2%, just below the threshold. According to Thibodaux, those who released their ballots before the announcement last year received an average of 7.55 votes per ballot. Voters who waited until the announcement to vote averaged 6.77 votes per ballot, and private ballots averaged 5.8 votes. Thibodeau, who started tracking voting in 2012, said the trends have been stable over the years.
The current vote totals are not encouraging for Beltran or Jones’ 2025 hopes, but they are positive for eventual inauguration. There are no players in next year’s first-year qualifying class with career bWAR of 60 or higher, such as Suzuki (60) and Sabathia (62.3). The top first-year players in next year’s voting are Cole Hamels (59 bWAR) and Ryan Braun (47.1 bWAR).
Jaffe said Sabathia’s strong support is not only good for Sabathia’s future, but also for the future of Andy Pettit, Felix Hernandez, Mark Buehrle and Hamels of.
“Andy Pettitte and Felix Hernandez are almost polar opposites in terms of how they got to this point, and Pettitte has had a very skilled career and a lot of playoff work, which is great for helping this team get to this point. Winning the World Series is very important,” Jaffe said. “Felix was at a very high peak, but he didn’t last long enough, burned out early, and had no playoff experience.”
Pettit is on the ballot for the seventh time, with an approval rating of 31.8% as of Tuesday afternoon. Last year, Pettit received 52 votes (13.5%), and this year he has received 48 votes, indicating a significant increase in his support. Hernandez, in his first year on the ballot, received 25.2 percent of the votes released Tuesday afternoon.
While the focus of voting has always been on the 75% line needed to take office, another metric worth watching is the 5% needed to stay on the ballot.
As of Tuesday morning, seven of the 14 names on the first ballot had not yet been put to a public vote. Of the seven remaining first-year eligible players, only Suzuki, Sabathia, Hernandez and Dustin Pedroia (12.6%) received the 5% of votes needed to remain on the ballot. number.
That means 10 players are in danger of being eliminated, including two receivers, Russell Martin (4.6%) and Brian McCann (4%), who were drafted at No. Was eliminated in a year. Torii Hunter, who is on the ballot for the fifth time (1.3%), and Francisco Rodríguez, who is on the ballot for the third year (7.9%), also face less than 5%. possibility. As of Tuesday morning, Mark Buehrle was on his fifth ballot and had received 19 votes, enough to keep him on the ballot for another year as long as no more than 380 votes were returned. One more vote from Buehler between Tuesday afternoon and next week’s announcement will guarantee the longtime Chicago White Sox starter a spot on next year’s ballot.
(Photo: Stephen Chambers/Getty Images)
