The Denver Broncos’ decision to release star safety Justin Simmons could easily be viewed as collateral damage and a regrettable but necessary step in realigning the salary cap.
But digging deeper, a trend seems to be forming at Simmons’ position, as a bevy of safeties have hit the free agent market and teams appear to be prioritizing other areas on the roster. Kevin Byard, Jordan Poyer, Jamal Adams, Eddie Jackson, Quandre Diggs , Rayshawn Jenkins and Marcus Maye were all waived (or designated for post-June 1 cut in Maye’s case), while Antoine Winfield Jr. (Antoine Winfield Jr. was tagged for the franchise by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Kyle Dugger was tagged for transition by the New England Patriots, and Xavier McKinney (Xavier McKinney) was not tagged with any status by the New York Giants.
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For a brief moment on Tuesday, McKinney appeared to be in prime position to corner the top tier of the free-agent safety market. But within 48 hours, he was fighting alongside more of his peers than he expected.
Supply exceeds demand, which may depress the value of the position. Seven NFL personnel executives and coaches say this is unlikely to be as dramatic as the downturn in the running back market Competitor Some things are always evolving, even if it only becomes a short-term trend.
“(It’s part of) a larger financial trend,” one executive said. “The market is too high for the overall impact of this position.”
To be fair, we can’t separate Simmons’ release from quarterback Russell Wilson, whose release will result in $85 million in cap space against the Broncos. At 30 years old, Simmons may no longer be at the top of his game, but opposing teams still view him as one of the best safeties in the game and his leadership skills are beyond reproach. But for a team that was in serious financial disarray after Wilson was released, the $14.5 million in salary cap savings is significant. The Broncos will have a series of tough contract decisions to make until Wilson’s money goes over the cap.
“(Simmons) is too expensive considering what else they need to do,” one coach said. “Russell Wilson’s Divorce Is Expensive.”
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Simmons’ release is unique in that respect.
But that’s not the whole story. Despite all of Simmons’ positive qualities, some executives recognize why he’s not necessarily worthy of the cap hit, and the debate is more about the position as a whole.
As the league becomes more pass-focused, teams are more likely to overspend on quarterbacks, wide receivers, offensive tackles, edge rushers, cornerbacks and defensive tackles.
So they had to cut other positions, whether it was running back, inside linebacker or safety. Of course, there are always exceptions, but this has become the general pattern. Nick Korte of Over The Cap said more than $100 million in cash salaries for 2024 had been moved to safety positions as of Thursday morning. This is the largest of all positions at nearly $40 million.
This is fucking crazy! No loyalty to anything or anyone in the league!
This guy has been an All-Pro and Pro Bowler and a staple in Denver! ! What’s going on with this loss of security? https://t.co/JeqMkGiEgG— Nino (@qdiggs6) March 7, 2024
As one executive pointed out, the number of safeties on the 2023 free-agent market is slim, and Jesse Bates (four years, $64 million with Atlanta) is the only player to get a big deal. Carolina’s Vaughn Bell, Cleveland’s Juan Thornhill and Dallas’ Donovan Wilson are the only other players to sign contracts worth a total of at least $20 million. The four are among nine safeties signed to make at least $6 million per year.
“While the market is nowhere near as strong (in 2023), you will see teams not willing to pay,” one executive said. “I think we’re going to see a trend of teams not wanting to overpay for the position.”
Philosophically, what’s going on is probably more similar to what’s going on at linebacker than what’s going on at running back. To some extent, smart defensive coordinators have figured out ways to make safeties and linebackers interchangeable in specific packages. Some of the better cornerbacks have taken on safety responsibilities, whether in a game plan role or full-time.
At the same time, running backs are becoming easier to find in the draft, and younger players with less mileage are becoming valuable commodities at positions where injuries have taken their toll, especially when there’s often only one guy on the field.
This actually creates an antithesis. There are relatively few situations where a rookie safety can make an impact, so in that sense the veteran market should be more attractive. It may not feel obvious, but it’s usually not hard to figure out which cornerbacks are affected, for better or worse, by the play of the safeties around them.
“You’re often looking for defensive coordinators who can move (players) to safety because there aren’t enough,” one executive said. “You’d think that would make (veterans) more valuable in the NFL, but it doesn’t.”
Some of what happened this week may be largely coincidental — or at least not indicative of a larger trend with this position. Of the eight recently released safeties mentioned above, seven are out of the 30 games played. The exception is Adams, who has a lengthy injury history and has played in just 10 games over the past two seasons.
Meanwhile, Minnesota’s Harrison Smith is the only one of 10 safeties with multi-year deals worth at least $10 million per year who is older than 30 years old. As with any other position, teams prefer to give their young players market-defining contracts. When Winfield and Dugger turn their tags into extensions, they will almost certainly tip those numbers further in the youngster’s favor. McKinney is also a candidate to join the $10 million club.
So while there certainly seems to be a trend, there are many reasons why so many security products have been flooding the market lately. The team prioritizes the more impactful positions, but age and cap casualties don’t discriminate anywhere on the depth chart.
“With so many (safeties) going to be released, teams don’t feel the need to pay more,” one coach said. “But I don’t think there’s any safety trend that’s going to reduce payouts in the long term like what’s happening in the running back market.”
(Photo by Justin Simmons: Grant Halvorson/Getty Images)
