They entered the NFL with much fanfare and lofty expectations, hoping to one day be among the best talent the NFL has ever seen. But just three years later, the 2021 quarterback draft class largely looks like a giant bust.
While NFL teams continue to evaluate another group of highly regarded quarterbacks ahead of the April draft, two of the five quarterbacks selected in the 2021 first round (Justin Fields and Mac Jones) Just got traded for a pittance. The third guy (Trey Lance) is set to enter year two as a backup on the second team. The fourth (Zach Wilson) faces an uncertain future in the NFL.
No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence is the only 2021 first-round quarterback still considered a draft pick, the Jacksonville Jaguars. But even Lawrence had yet to blossom into a transformative star. Wilson, meanwhile, is clearly in his final days with the New York Jets, who will trade or cut him. Lance was a backup with the Cowboys and was traded to Dallas after Brock Purdy took over as San Francisco’s offensive leader. Fields had just been shipped to Pittsburgh from Chicago. The Patriots essentially handed Jones over to the Jaguars, who will use him as Lawrence’s backup.
Instead of competing with Hall of Famers John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino from the 1983 draft class, the 2021 QB class will serve as a cautionary example of where teams are at in talent evaluation, projection and Mistakes often occur in development plans.
But what went wrong? Why are these once-heralded quarterbacks still stuck in development and/or on the verge of bankruptcy?
An examination of each case revealed some common themes and answers.
Trevor Lawrence is still with the Jaguars but has had three seasons of ups and downs. (Steve Roberts/USA Today)
Lawrence and the Jaguars
Lawrence isn’t close to elite status yet, but he’s the closest thing to a franchise quarterback of the bunch. As a starter, he had a 20-30 record, throwing 58 touchdown passes, 39 interceptions and a completion rate of 63.8%. His only winning season (9-8 in 2022) put him in the playoffs (Jacksonville went 1-1 in the playoffs) and finished with 4,113 yards passing, 25 touchdowns, and eight interceptions Later selected to the Pro Bowl. However, Lawrence and the Jaguars took a slight step back in 2023, falling to 1-5 and missing the playoffs after an up-and-down year.
Although Lawrence has struggled for consistency, most NFL talent evaluators still consider him a prospect. They believe Urban Meyer was fired after a 2-11 start in his rookie season that was marked by dysfunction and toxicity that hindered his development. The Jaguars replaced him with Doug Pederson, who performed well against Lawrence despite some accuracy issues the quarterback showed against top backs in college (especially It was the LSU-Alabama game) that also followed him into the NFL. Lawrence has also dealt with some injuries in 2023. Health and another season in Pederson’s system should help further his development, but the Jaguars must also find a quality No. 1 receiver to replace Calvin Ridley to further help the 24-year-old Lawrence.
If the Jets can’t get a deal done for Zach Wilson, he’ll likely be waived. (Jason Wenlove/USA Today)
wilson and the jets
Wilson’s pre-draft workouts and college game tape showcased his escapism and improvisational wizardry that reminded talent evaluators of Aaron Rodgers. But BYU isn’t facing elite talent in 2020, instead competing with schools from Conference USA, the American Athletic Conference, the Sun Belt and the Mountain West Conference, and the No. 2 overall pick’s path to promotion has proven to be better than the Jets’ Much steeper than expected.
Wilson’s three seasons with the Jets were a disaster. As a starter, he had a 12-21 record with 23 touchdown passes, 25 interceptions, a 57.0 completion percentage, and multiple backups. In retrospect, Wilson never should have come out of the draft as early as he did and needed to sit behind a veteran starter and learn and develop over time, both mentally and physically.
Wilson now faces an uncertain future. The Jets are trying to trade him because Rodgers suffered an Achilles injury in Week 1 that has put him in trouble again as a starter. While there’s been quite a bit of quarterback movement in the first week of free agency, Wilson’s name hasn’t even been linked to teams with potential trade rumors. If Wilson is cut, some rival talent evaluators believe someone will consider him a backup/recycling item.
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Lance and the 49ers
San Francisco knew Lance would be a project: The quarterback out of North Dakota State had just one full season of experience (2019) after COVID-19 robbed him of the opportunity to play a full junior program. However, the 49ers believe Lance is worth trading up from No. 12 to No. 3.
Lance enters 2022 as San Francisco’s starter after a season behind Jimmy Garoppolo, thanks in large part to Garoppolo still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. But in two games, Lance completed just 15 of 31 passes (48.4%) for 194 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions before breaking his ankle and missing the rest of the season. Purdy’s emergence later that same season, coupled with Lance’s continued developmental struggles in the 2023 offseason and training camp, caused the 49ers to lose patience. They traded Lance to Dallas for a fourth-round pick, and Lance served as the Cowboys’ third quarterback all season and never let up.
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An awkward and necessary end to the Trey Lance era with the 49ers
The 49ers made serious mistakes in their evaluation of Lance, who ultimately turned out to be more raw, less dynamic as an athlete and not as much of a natural pitcher as they thought. That’s not to say Lance can’t develop into a quality NFL quarterback one day. But the 49ers find themselves in a tight spot as they try to take advantage of the window of opportunity they have to get ready for a championship. Team officials ultimately decided they didn’t have time to wait for Lance to grow and selected Sam Darnold as their No. 2 quarterback, viewing Lance as expendable.
Purdy, the final pick in the 2022 draft, far exceeded expectations, neutralizing any possible misjudgments on Lance caused by San Francisco general manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan. Meanwhile, being able to learn from Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott without expectations and a tight schedule may be the best option for Lance’s development in the long run.
fields and bears
Fields spent one season under Matt Nagy, who was fired after a 6-11 season, and then had to replace Matt Eberflus and the offensive coordinator A fresh start under the leadership of player Luke Getsy. Eberfus and Gacy turned Fields (the No. 11 overall pick) into an even better running quarterback than he was at Ohio State, and Fields has really proven to be dynamic as a rusher. He finished the 2022 season with 1,143 yards, joining Michael Vick and Lamar Jackson as the only quarterbacks to rush for 1,000 yards in a season. However, Fields was far less dynamic as a passer, throwing for just 2,242 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions to go along with sacks (55) and fumble recovery (16 times) leads the NFL. The chronic poor form of Chicago’s offensive line also played a factor in Fields’ struggles.
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Fields showed some improvement in his third year, but still lacks consistency as a passer. Fields seemed to have trouble seeing the field, and rival scouts and coaches questioned whether he would truly fit in Chicago’s system. Ultimately, Fields was the product of a poor development program, and he never enjoyed the benefits of playing for a coach who truly believed in him or had a good understanding of how to tailor the offense to his strengths. Eberflus did fire Gacy after the 2023 season, but the move came too late for Fields, who the Bears traded to the Steelers on Saturday. Chicago is expected to select USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the first overall pick.
For Fields, a reset might be the best option. He will begin his Steelers chapter as the backup to former Super Bowl champion Russell Wilson, who can help Fields further understand NFL defensive concepts and how to use his mobility as a tool to extend games while further Perfecting his passing game.
Jones helped Alabama win a national championship but was never viewed as a dynamic NFL prospect. Playing for Nick Saban might better prepare him for the pro game, but Jones is considered by many talent evaluators to have the lowest ceiling among his fellow first-round quarterbacks because of his average physical gifts.
Jones was drafted 15th overall by New England and had a stellar rookie season. He beat out Cam Newton as the starter and threw for 3,801 yards, 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, helping the Patriots reach the playoffs with a 10-7 record. But he regressed in year two after Josh McDaniels resigned as New England’s offensive coordinator to coach the Raiders. Bill Belichick then appointed former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia and former special teams coordinator Joe Judge to run the offense instead of giving Jones a true offensive coordinator. The legendary head coach/roster designer also failed to adequately bolster the Patriots’ skill set. Although Jones hired Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator heading into his third season, the quarterback was never able to bounce back, going 2-9 as a starter. , he has been placed on the bench.
Jones’ situation is a perfect example of team mismanagement. Despite his limitations (average arm strength and athleticism), he excelled in college and was surrounded by quality talent that helped take the pressure off him. He succeeded as an NFL rookie because the creative McDaniels knew how best to mask his flaws and set him up for success. Belichick foolishly thought Patricia and Judge could do the same thing. Without the offensive wizardry of McDaniels and a talented supporting cast, Jones fell off the ground. Now, he serves as Lawrence’s backup in Jacksonville — a role that best suits his skills.
In five weeks, the next crop of star college quarterbacks will enter the NFL with much fanfare and expectations that they will change the fortunes of teams that will invest lucrative draft picks to acquire them. The Bears and Patriots hold the No. 1 and No. 3 picks in the draft, respectively, and are expected to once again swing by in search of a franchise quarterback. The Commanders, Vikings, Raiders and Broncos could also draft a quarterback.
Their success will depend in large part on avoiding the mistakes the Jets, 49ers, Bears, Patriots and many other teams have made: poor talent projection, overrated prospects and a failure to The quarterback provides adequate coaching or lineup support.
(Top photo of Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones: Christian Peterson, Michael Reeves and Chris Unger/Getty Images)
