Yesterday, I was primarily focused on charting out the updated NBA pre-playoff player tiers before revealing Tier 3 (players between 24th and 42nd) and Tier 4 (43rd-80th).
Today, I’ll take a closer look at some of the more interesting and/or challenging positions and point out some general trends.
First, the consistent feedback I’ve gotten from multiple sources since the release of Tiers 3 and 4 is that it’s difficult to evaluate which player is more valuable between elite role players and good but passable role players. -Great primary or secondary creator. One senior analyst within the league even claimed that they prefer essentially the entire 4A class, consisting mostly of elite role players or contact players, to a 3B class made up of fringe All-Star primaries.
I don’t think there’s a solid way to resolve this debate, and to the extent that choosing between Mikal Bridges and Jaylen Brown has more to do with the rest of their respective rosters than with individual players. In that particular comparison, I think it’s entirely possible, if unlikely, that both would be better off if the Celtics and Nets swapped the two!
NBA player level: ’20 | ’21 | ’22 | ‘twenty three: T5| T4| T3 | T2 | T1 | ‘twenty four: Terminal T3&4
In some ways, this is really an extension of the long-standing problem of how to evaluate the level of sub-elite but still very good ball-handling players. At least in my opinion, nothing in the league is more valuable than elite shot creation, and nothing is more overrated than mediocre shot creation, but the importance and desirability of finding players in between is. It’s hard.
In part, this is also the reason for doing this exercise in the first place, as it’s established that there’s a sizable gap between Brown and Jayson Tatum, and between Luka Doncic and Donovan Mitchell. The difference between them is huge and this is an important part of the list evaluation. In other words, avoid the disparaging term “franchisor.”
Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are another set of teammates who embody this dichotomy. I don’t think Banchero is a particularly deserving All-Star this year. According to Basketball Reference, only eight players had scored at least 100 fewer points than the league average in the same number of scoring attempts through April 10, and Bengaluru ranked seventh on that list. In part, however, this is a result of Orlando’s lack of other creators. In my simple shot quality model, his expected eFG% is 50.2%, which ranks 24th among 162 players with at least 500 tracked shot attempts this season.
But conversely, the players ranked 21st, 22nd, and 23rd in field goal percentage were Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Tatum, who shot 209 (SGA, third of 162), 73 (Edwards), respectively. , 45th) and 151 points (Tatum, 13th), while Bangalore’s shooting was essentially at his level of shot quality (-3 points, 124th of 162). Should he be credited with at least being able to absorb possession and help keep Orlando’s offense stable? How will he perform when he has more creative defenders around him? I’m not so sure, which is why Bangalore is a difficult player to rate.
Wagner, meanwhile, doesn’t possess the same self-creation ability as Bangalore, but he excels in most other areas — more efficient scoring, better, more complete defense, off-ball movement — which makes He became a very plug-and-play player. – Complement any team that already has key creative roles filled.
Next, if I were to do a mid-season rating update, there are some notable players who might be higher. Tyrese Haliburton is one of them. He’s been outstanding this year, is a worthy All-Star, and is the driving force behind Indiana’s potent offense. But the second half of the year hasn’t been as good as the first half, whether because injuries have slowed him down or because defenses are starting to find him, or most likely both. That, coupled with my uncertainty about how well his style will translate in the playoffs, has him falling down in the third tier after I had him slotted into the second tier for most of the season. Bottom of the echelon.
Damian Lillard is another player who was demoted this season. At the beginning of the year, with the adjustment to a new team and roles, as well as the coaching turmoil that plagued the Bucks during the first part of the season, it was easy to make some concessions. But while he’s shown some of his old dominance in fits and starts, like Wednesday’s 29 points (19 shots) and nine assists to lead the Celtics without Giannis Antetokounmpo, The Deer defeated the Magic, but these performances were still commendable. The exception rather than the rule. In his final four seasons in Portland, Lillard’s true shooting percentage totaled 62.1 and his usage rate was 31.4. In Milwaukee, his efficiency dropped to 59.3 TS with a 28.4 usage rate, his least efficient full season relative to league average since his rookie year. For a player who has always had huge question marks defensively, the decline at age 33 is concerning.
Sure, he can knock down shots in the playoffs, help the Bucks reach the Eastern Conference Finals or even the NBA Finals and prove that he still belongs in the top-20 conversation.
Speaking of the playoffs, I mentioned yesterday that there are some players who cannot easily improve their level until the playoffs. Tatum, Doncic and Joel Embiid are the best examples. All three have a good chance of making the playoffs this year, and Doncic in particular seems ready to move on. The mid-season addition of Daniel Gafford and the Mavericks’ newfound ability to match Doncic’s creativity and having a strong diving-dunk pick-and-roll partner with shooting around seemed to unlock something special.
At the same time, based on past experience, I’ve more or less assumed that some players will perform well in the playoffs. Jimmy Butler and Jamal Murray didn’t have stellar regular seasons, but both have a track record of dominating in the postseason.
Going back and forth, I don’t know what to do with Ja Morant, so I’m basically treating this year as a gap year while acknowledging that he’s already getting extra scrutiny next year.
Finally, we come to the French boss in the room. Victor Wembanyama is in Tier 2B and is one of the top 14 players in the league. I don’t think he made the All-NBA team all season, but he was already very good as a rookie and showed improvement over the course of the year, which indicates to me that he’s going to be strong to start next season. A chance to earn all-conference honors.
If you compare him moving from power forward to starting center in early December or inserting Tre Jones into the starting lineup and pairing Wembanyama with a capable point guard in early January. This growth is particularly evident when compared.
In the case of the former, he’s been a top-five rim protector in the league ever since, with a similar profile to Brook Lopez during that period. Meanwhile, Wembunyama’s true shooting percentage was just 53.3% (29.9% usage rate) before Jones was added to the starting lineup, but since then, that number has jumped to 58.5% (33.7% usage rate), while his assists The rate has also increased by nearly 50%. All of this and his 3-point shooting are still a work in progress.
Of course, these numbers don’t even fully reflect Winby’s full story, as evidenced by the near-nightly parade of “Wait, what did he do?!” emphasize. While he won’t get a chance to prove himself in this year’s playoffs, it seems almost inevitable that if he can avoid injury, he’ll soon be knocking on the doorstep of Division I basketball once he delivers on everything he’s hyped to be. The gate is, wait.
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(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb/ Competitor; Photo: Michael Gonzales, Garrett Ellwood, Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty)
