SecondWhenever Vladimir Putin screws up, people ask the same question: Will there be any repercussions? Last week’s terrorist attack at the Saffron City concert hall near Moscow, which killed 137 people, is one of the bigger crises facing Putin during his 25-year rule. There is no doubt that as Russia’s head of state and commander-in-chief of its security forces, he bears ultimate responsibility for what was by any means a catastrophic failure. In any normal political system, his resignation would be expected.
The fact that this is more or less unimaginable is not necessarily a sign of Putin’s strength. His dictatorship weakened checks and balances within Russian society and eliminated the means for independent review. Any calls for him to take personal responsibility are almost never heard, let alone acted upon. However, the Russian people, although long and continuously misled, are not stupid.
With blood flowing in the streets and a nation in mourning, there is no doubt that Putin’s Superman myth has just suffered a serious blow from the bursting of the bubble.
It is estimated that the Kremlin spent more than £1 billion on “information management” (i.e. lies and propaganda) to ensure Putin’s “victory” in the recent presidential election. In addition, state spending on the Internet and media has reportedly increased 20-fold. It all serves a purpose: to portray Putin as an invincible, indispensable modern tsar, bravely protecting Mother Russia from her enemies.
But on Friday, four gunmen destroyed that myth with ruthless anarchic violence. The attackers met with no resistance, the victims received no warning, and Putin’s vast security apparatus—all the horses and men of the usurping king—could not prevent the massacre of defenseless citizens.
Even in a society as constrained as Russia’s, this fatal failure of neglect will not be forgotten or forgiven.
This is Putin’s business. It also points to another fundamental weakness in his personal and political position: He is so disconnected and isolated from the day-to-day reality of Russia that he believes his own false narrative. Putin has insisted on blaming Ukraine as “Nazis” despite the Islamic State posting explicit videos online acknowledging the attack. This is just too cynical. This is borderline psychotic.
There is no evidence to support this wild slander, which Kiev strongly denies. But that’s not surprising. Unsubstantiated conspiracy theories are Putin’s modus operandi. It is expected that the Kremlin, not satisfied with the recent murder of key regime critic Alexei Navalny, will use the attack to further suppress domestic dissent, expand political control, escalate the war in Ukraine, or even order mass mobilization.
If Putin cannot distinguish, or at least accept, the difference between reality and fiction, it is because he himself is perched atop an edifice of lies. His power and presidency are built on systemic lies that are fed to a captive nation on a massive scale every day. The basic contract between Putin and the people, as it is sometimes called, is that he provides security and they provide support. But this is the biggest lie.
Putin does not care at all about the safety and well-being of ordinary Russians. In Saffron City, the big lie was brutally exposed. While innocent people died or writhed in agony, Putin quietly hid, sulked, and plotted for 19 hours about how best to evade responsibility and reverse the consequences.
His selfishness, coldness, and insouciance have been witnessed time and again. Remember his callous attempt to ignore the Kursk submarine disaster in 2000 and the carnage he witnessed during the second siege of Grozny? Most recently, it resulted in the stupidest geostrategic mistake of modern times—his incompetent invasion of Ukraine—and led to mass casualties in Russia. He just doesn’t care.
For Putin, it is all about him, his own insecurities, his need for absolute power and his illusions about a glorious revival of the Russian Empire. This has nothing to do with anyone else, let alone “the people”.
The damage to lives, wealth, and reputation that Putin’s war and confrontation with the West will do to Russia is immeasurable. But it was his enduring obsession. Everything he thinks and does seems to relate to it. Speaking after this month’s election, he again vowed to make it a major focus. Why? Because, deep down in his withered, dry heart, he knew it was a terrible mistake.
Understandably, most Russians are not as fascinated as Putin. Instead, they saw increasingly clearly the damage the war was doing to their families, their standards of living, their freedoms, and their personal security. Regime-rigged polls are misleading. Many Russians want it to end. Their silence does not mean agreement, nor does it mean approval. It’s rooted in fear.
Putin is vulnerable. He should have foreseen the terrorist attack coming. But arrogance and complacency blinded him. When the United States generously shares clear warnings of impending conspiracies, he dismisses it as a disinformation strategy. When security services should be tracking Islamist militants, they are instead following his orders to harass opponents, journalists and gays.
Putin remade the Russian state in his own image: brutal, incompetent, ignorant, paranoid, delusional and isolated. It’s inherently weak, and so is he. As one disaster follows another, his control weakens, his authority weakens, and the fear of him disappears. The atrocities in Saffron City will accelerate this process. It does make a difference.
By helping to shatter the mythical altar barrier of omniscience, which he cowered behind like a defrocked priest, he forced Putin to take another step on the road to final reckoning. What is coming will come, don’t doubt it. It’s coming.
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