The attack on Moscow’s Crocus City concert hall was the deadliest attack claimed by the Islamic State on European soil, with 137 confirmed dead.
Attackers armed with assault rifles entered a concert hall in a Moscow suburb on Friday night and fired for nearly an hour as panicked concertgoers scrambled to escape. The attackers then set fire to the venue.
The death toll is slightly higher than the devastating Paris attacks in 2015, which occurred at the height of the Islamic State’s power.
Things have moved quickly since Friday, with four suspects, identified by Russian news agencies as Tajik citizens, appearing in court on Sunday to admit their involvement.
However, questions remain: How President Vladimir Putin responded is unclear, while experts are seeking to explain the precise motive for the attack.
Why did IS attack Russia?
There are practical, historical and ideological reasons why ISIS attacks Russia.
Islamic State leaders have long viewed attacks on distant targets as an integral part of their extremist agenda. Such operations, when successful, can not only intimidate enemies but also mobilize existing supporters and attract new ones.
Typically, goals are determined based on available resources. Nine years ago, a group of French and Belgian recruits in Syria sparked a wave of attacks from both countries. Over the past 18 months, the Islamic State has made a concerted effort to recruit Central Asian fighters through its Afghan affiliate, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). As Russian speakers, or even Russian nationals, these recruits can easily reach targets in Moscow, providing a variety of new attack opportunities.
Russia has been a target of Islamic State for years. Like many Islamist militants, ISIS leaders have taken note of Russia’s support for the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. A key point in Islamic State propaganda from Pakistan to Nigeria is that Moscow is part of a broader alliance of Christian or Western powers involved in a 1,400-year-old existential struggle against Islam.
The Islamic State’s statement claiming responsibility for the attack boasted of “killing Christians”.
ISKP leaders may also believe that Russia supports the continued rule of the Taliban, who have suppressed them. They will also remember the brutal Soviet military campaign in Afghanistan in the 1980s and their father or grandfather’s “holy war” against Moscow’s forces. Russia’s bloody war in Chechnya in 1999 may also be a factor.
How will Russia react?
Many terrorist attacks attempt to provoke a strong repressive response from authorities, with the goal of further escalating violence. If this is part of the Islamic State’s plan to target Moscow, they are unlikely to be disappointed.
Russian authorities appear to have been particularly brutal in their interrogations of suspects.
Circulating interrogation videos show the men were tortured. One of the videos appears to show members of the security forces cutting off a suspect’s ear and stuffing it into his mouth.
In court, all suspects showed severe bruising and swollen faces. One of them was taken directly from the hospital to court in a wheelchair. Paramedics treated him and discovered he had multiple cuts.
Russia’s Muslim minority could face a wave of repression as Putin vows to punish those behind “savage terror attacks”.
In the Russian ruler’s only public speech on the massacre, he made no mention of Islamic State’s claim of responsibility.
Instead, despite Islamic State claiming responsibility for the attack and releasing videos to substantiate those claims, Russia has sought to pin some of the blame on Ukraine.
On Saturday, Putin claimed without evidence that the four captured gunmen planned to flee to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Putin and others close to him were seeking to deflect accusations of Russian intelligence failures.
The United States says it has received intelligence that ISKP is acting alone.
Will the death toll rise?
As of Monday after the attack, emergency responders said they were continuing to search for people who may have been injured or dead inside the heavily damaged concert hall. The death toll rose several times over the weekend as more bodies were discovered.
Many families don’t know if relatives who were at the concert hall on Friday night are still alive. Igor Bogadaev told The Associated Press that he was desperately seeking any details about his wife’s whereabouts after she went to a concert and stopped responding to his messages.
Bogodaev said he visited hospitals in the Russian capital and the Moscow region to find information on newly admitted patients. But he said his wife was not among those reported injured or on the list of victims identified so far.
Moscow’s health department said on Sunday it had begun using DNA testing to identify the victims’ bodies, a process that would take at least two weeks.
Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report
