Welcome back to Bracket Busters! We know you miss us, and we can’t wait to wow you with the unique look at NCAA Tournament upsets provided by our proprietary statistical model, Slingshot. We hope you will follow our work over the years. But if you’re new to Bracket Breakers, here’s the latest explanation of who we are, what we do, and the status of Slingshot.
Over the next few days, we’ll be providing in-depth regional previews of every first-round matchup that qualifies for the Bracket Breaker tournament (meaning there must be at least a 5-seed difference). We’ll also provide upset odds for each potential second-round game on Wednesday. You won’t want to fill in your brackets or place a moneyline bet if you don’t check this section!
But while you’re starting to digest this bracket, we wanted to provide a quick list of the 10 most likely first-round upsets. We swear we have nothing against the Palmetto State—after all, Furman professors Liz Bouzarth, John Harris, and Kevin Hutson provide the insights behind Slingshot ’s math — but our model definitely doesn’t favor two power conference teams from South Carolina.
deeper
March Madness bracket prep: Capsule previews of all 68 teams, including strengths, weaknesses, prospects and more
As usual, Slingshot looks at teams that are at least 5 seeds apart, estimates their base strengths, adjusts those strength ratings based on how closely each team matches the statistics of past Davids or Goliaths, and then Modify them again to account for matchups. This year, we upgraded our cluster analysis. Closer to home, the most important result.
For more losers, listen to Peter and Jordan’s podcast.
10 teams most likely to get upset in the first round
1. No. 6 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 11 New Mexico Lobos
Chance of losing control: 57.8%
2. No. 6 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 11 Oregon Ducks
Chance of losing control: 43.2%
3. No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 North Carolina Wolfpack
Chance of losing control: 38.2%
4. No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys
Chance of losing control: 30.8%
5. No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon Lopez
Chance of losing control: 30.4%
6. No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 Sanford Bulldogs
Chance of losing control: 30.1%
7. No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 UAB Trail Blazers
Chance of losing control: 27.8%
8. No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 Duquesne Dukes
Chance of losing control: 24.8%
9. No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 12 James Madison Dukes
Chance of losing control: 24.4%
10. No. 3 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 14 Akron Zips
Chance of losing control: 20.4%
We thank John Harris, Kevin Hutson, and Liz Bouzarth of Furman University for research assistance.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb/ Competitor; Jaelen House, New Mexico Photo: Ian Maule/Getty Images; Grand Canyon Gabe McGlothan Photo: Ian Maule/AP)
