A majority of European countries now believe a negotiated outcome with Russia, rather than an outright military victory in Ukraine, is the most likely outcome, according to a major 15-country poll.
Despite the reversal of battlefield conditions, support for the Ukrainian cause across Europe remains strong, but European voters increasingly believe that arming Ukraine is necessary, not to achieve a comprehensive victory on the Ukrainian battlefield, but to enhance Ukraine’s strength in future negotiations with Russia. .
The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank conducted a poll of 19,566 people in 15 countries in the first half of May 2024. , but support for war and victory remains strong.
A total of 34% of Ukrainians currently say they have “a lot of trust” in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, while another 31% have “a lot of trust” in him – meaning the number of people who maintain confidence in the leader More than those who don’t trust their leaders.
When asked about the most likely outcome of the war, 58% of Ukrainians expected Ukraine to win, 30% said the war would end in reconciliation, and only 1% expected Russia to win. But most would rather give up territory than give up sovereignty, which is defined by the right to join NATO and the European Union.
Of the 14 European countries surveyed, only Estonia generally believes that Ukraine will win the war outright (38%). Still, most people in Sweden and Poland want Europe to help Ukraine fight until all its territory is regained. Majorities in Italy, Greece and Bulgaria oppose this, arguing that increasing arms supplies to Ukraine is a bad idea. Overall, Italy has become the major European power least supportive of Ukraine. But in most European countries, strong majorities still support providing more weapons to Ukraine, even if it is to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating leverage.
There is a lack of national consensus among the middle countries of the Czech Republic, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Switzerland on the war and the EU’s role.
A total of 69% of Ukrainians said they needed more weapons to defend themselves, but this view did not translate into disillusionment with the EU. 75% of Ukrainians view the EU’s role as positive and believe that Ukraine’s membership is necessary to win the war.
When asked to list 10 countries based on the reliability of their support for their home country, Ukrainians ranked the UK first with 88%, calling the UK “very or mostly reliable”, followed by Lithuania with 77% %, although most countries on the list are considered reliable.
But some Ukrainians (one-third) admit they have strong fears that the United States will reach a peace deal with Russia that does not involve Kyiv.
French President Emmanuel Macron has failed to persuade French people to follow his lead and adopt a tougher pro-Ukrainian stance, polls show. One-third of French people favor supporting Ukraine in regaining lost territory, another third would rather push Ukraine to negotiate a peace deal with Russia, and the final third are taking a wait-and-see approach.
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“What’s striking about the state of public opinion relative to Ukraine is its remarkable stability — while the conflict continues,” said Ivan Krastev, co-author of the survey and president of the Center for Liberal Strategies. Upgrade.” Public attitudes are not frozen in many ways. “
Mark Leonard, ECFR director and co-author of the report, said: “Our new poll shows that one of the main challenges for Western leaders will be reconciling differences between Europeans and Ukrainians over how to end the war. Conflicting positions. While both organizations recognize the need for continued military assistance to help Ukraine repel Russian aggression, there are wide gaps over what constitutes victory and the actual purpose of European support.
The poll was conducted by Datapraxis in partnership with YouGov, Norstat and Alpha Research and Rating Group in 15 countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, France, Germany, UK, Greece, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland). ) and Ukraine).
