phosphorusPicture this: The main left-of-centre party returns to power after more than a decade of being dominated by the right. A technocratic leader in his 60s who was naturally cautious suddenly found himself leading a country that seemed to have lost its way. The economy is faltering, growing sluggishly, and in urgent need of public investment. But he has maintained strict fiscal discipline, downplaying key policies including the climate crisis to meet strict spending rules. In the more than two years since he took office, the government has been erratic and widely seen as lacking a vision for the future. A resurgence of the radical right has filled the void, and immigrants are dominating national politics. The center-left is doing poorly in the polls and is expected to lose the next election.
This is not a vision of the future for Keir Starmer and his Labor Party, but a description of Germany’s current situation. Olaf Scholz unexpectedly leads the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) in 2021 for the first time since Gerhard Schröder lost to Angela Merkel in 2005 Returning to the highest government office for the first time. After winning power, he largely promised continuity but didn’t seem to know what to do with it. He has struggled to articulate a vision for his country because of his commitment to fiscal discipline. His Social Democrats have had few major achievements and rank third in the polls, behind the resurgent Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right party whose politicians were recently caught openly discussing bringing as many as 2 million Germans Plans to deport immigrants to Africa.
We fear that the similarities between Labor and the Social Democrats may continue after the UK general election, which seems almost certain to bring Starmer to power. Labor has been extremely cautious, abandoning any policies it believes could threaten its leadership. Its ambitious £28bn plan to invest in a green transition is just the latest in a series of once bold policies that have now run into snags. Its manifesto appears to offer, at best, incremental change in a country desperate for fundamental reforms to its policies and governance.
The problem, as Scholz discovered, is that modern voters tend to be fickle and impatient. Promises of more competent governance can win electoral battles but are not enough to preside over post-election peace. Voters are frustrated by the disconnect between the government’s limited ambitions and the country’s need for change. Polls show that British people are deeply dissatisfied with the current situation in the country. They realize public services are underfunded, local councils are in crisis and government agencies are not fit for purpose. With trust in politics and politicians at historic lows, they may be as quick as German voters to attack a government that appears unable to meet today’s challenges. A major danger is that the ensuing discontent will be exploited by the far-right, as is the case with the Alternative for Germany party. In the UK, this could come from a resurgent Conservative Party led by the right, or from a resurgent Reform Party.
Labour’s strategy may be the easiest path to victory, but it complicates what happens next. Some hope Starmer will switch from cautious managerialism to ambitious reformism after the election. But Scholz’s predicament shows how difficult it is to achieve this goal.Lacking an electoral mandate for bold change, those pushing for change within the party Will find it difficult to win arguments. After winning the election, the advocates of caution prevailed. The dominant narrative became “we won the election because we failed to commit to bold change, and this turn threatens that position.”
Despite evidence to the contrary, center-left politicians seem convinced that centrism and incrementalism are necessary to win elections. On issues such as fiscal policy and welfare, Labor and other European center-left parties are trying to defeat the center-right parties on their own turf. As a result, voters are also shifting to the right. ‘Swabian housewife’, ‘maxed credit card’ and ‘beggar’ have become important ways of thinking about these policy areas. The dominance of these center-right narratives limits the transformative power of the left.
Not just in Britain but across Europe, the center left is at a crossroads. Intellectuals seem to have little vision for progressive governance in the 21st century. How can an underfunded public sector be revitalized in an economy struggling to grow? In an aging society, where so much expenditure must be spent on the elderly, how can we achieve social democracy? How do we address fundamental wealth inequality, generational equity, and the lack of adequate housing? What does a just transition to a green economy look like from a social and environmental perspective? Neither Starmer nor Labour, nor Scholz nor the Social Democrats, have attempted to provide comprehensive answers to these questions. There is still time for the former to learn from the latter’s mistakes. Otherwise, Starmer risks emulating not just Shortz’s electoral success but his subsequent defeat.
