This is Connecting the Dots, a series in which writer José Criales-Unzueta looks at how fashion, pop culture, the internet and society are all interconnected.
The genesis of runway trends is somewhat of an urban myth.
Last month, as I reported and ranted on the Spring/Summer 2025 collections on Instagram, I spotted a breakout trend in the way designers combined tactical outerwear with going out styles. Anoraks and sequins at Burberry, windbreakers and sparkles at Prada, and clubby tops and cargo pants at The Attico.
The more I posted, the more DMs I received asking the same question: “How does this even happen? Do designers talk to each other to show similar things, or do fashion editors whisper in their ears and tell them what to do?” read a particularly tantalising one.
Because there is no straightforward process like one would like to imagine, trends can indeed feel like a conspiracy: a sort of backend deal or a culmination of ‘the right people’ whispering in each others’ ears. But are they? How, pray-tell, are trends born? In an effort to find out, here we identified and spoke to the key players: designers, stylists, forecasters and buyers.
Business beginnings
Before a collection comes to life, there’s the zeitgeist: culture, music, film, politics. Designers pick up on these clues and, like all of us, ruminate on them and what they mean for our future. There’s also business agendas: what sells, what doesn’t, what could. And while much of fashion is about feeling, that artistic side goes hand-in-hand with the business end. There’s merchandising, business analytics, customer profiles; data that allows designers, editors and buyers to understand what customers are prioritising based on demographics.
Something we all tend to agree on: three’s a trend. “We always say that trends emerge in threes,” explains Yumi Shin, chief merchandising officer of Bergdorf Goodman. “When we see an idea at least three times, we know it will make it into our trend forecast, whether it’s a major or micro-trend, either on or off the runway.”
But before trends are reported on or bought into, they’re predicted by trend forecasters like WGSN, Peclers Paris, McKinsey & Company, and more. “We use a quantitative and qualitative process at WGSN. We leverage AI data modelling but we also include our creative forecasting team of product experts to contextualise the data and to ensure we’re looking in the right places,” explains Francesca Muston, VP of fashion at trend forecaster WGSN. The key word is “contextualising”. Muston details how WGSN’s forecasting methodology looks at society, technology, the environment, politics, industry and creative culture. Looking at fashion from all of these angles allows for a proper examination of what is actually trending past repetition or coincidence. This kind of forecasting helps brands market and design products in advance.
