After starting the second round with a three-game losing streak, the Carolina Hurricanes pulled off thrilling back-to-back wins in Games 4 and 5 to officially reach the series.
This was more akin to what many were expecting before this series began – a close, hard-fought battle between the two titans of the Metropolitan Division. While on the ice, the opening three possessions of the game were all one-goal, the scoring in the series clearly told a different story.
The Hurricanes have a very real chance to turn that around in Game 6 on Thursday night, as they’ll be the relative favorite at home to push the series to a Game 7 with three straight wins.
This may be a sickening thought for Rangers fans, but for hockey fans in general, it’s a rare treat. It will be the first time since 2014 that a team has forced its way into Game 7 after trailing 3-0 to start the series, when the Los Angeles Kings came back to knock out the San Jose Sharks in the first round.
It’s been a full decade since the last such example, which is crazier than it seems at first glance.
Perhaps nothing in sports is more exciting than a comeback, when a down-and-out team rises against all odds. Over the past few seasons, hockey fans have been blessed in this regard at every game. “The most dangerous leads in hockey” still exist, but that also extends to three- and four-goal cushions, which have evaporated much faster in recent years. In this sport, really no lead is safe.
However, this heightened comeback mentality did not carry over into the playoff series. Over the past decade, a 3-0 series lead might have been a sure thing. This is a guarantee of zero hope for the oppressed.
That’s not even to say there haven’t been any comebacks. The problem is, in this situation, no team even comes close, with zero points in Game 7.
To some, this may seem like an unusual story considering its rarity throughout hockey history. A 3-0 series lead is an impossibility to let go, a feat only the greatest choke artists can accomplish.
Still, as parity continues to improve in the salary-cap era, we should see more pure chance over the past decade. Even the most unexpected things always have the potential to happen, and the fact that those opportunities don’t materialize is fascinating.
Since 2015, there have been 30 times when teams have fallen behind 0-3, and 60 percent of those times have ended in sweeps. Only four (13%) made it to Game 6 where the Hurricanes are now — last year’s Dallas Stars were the first in eight (!) seasons to do so.
While the odds are never in favor of a team trailing 0-3, the odds aren’t zero either. At least they shouldn’t be. There’s a misconception that going down 3-0 only happens to the worst teams who are unlikely to get out of it in the first place, but it can happen to even the best teams.
Before the series began, the 30 teams’ rankings ranged from 17% underdogs to 77% favorites (hello, 2019 Tampa Bay Lightning) according to SportsLine History’s series odds. Of the 30 teams, 13 were expected to win from the start. Based on that — and given the team’s low rating after three straight losses — the chance of at least forcing a Game 7 is between 4 and 20 percent. The chances of coming back range from 1% to 13%.
On average, we’re talking about a 1 in 10 chance of forcing a Game 7 from a 3-0 deficit and a 1 in 10 chance of winning the series. These odds are obviously small, but over 30 series these tiny odds add up.
Based on each team’s odds after falling behind 3-0, we should see three Game 7s with one or two comprehensive comebacks. We have zero. In short – we were robbed.
Some people will be quick to point out the human element of it all, and that’s a very fair point. After taking a 3-0 lead, many teams displayed the killer instinct necessary to end the series. Trailing 0-3, many teams are daunted by the mountain ahead. Sometimes, a team that’s down 3-0 isn’t as good as they thought it would be. Or 3-0 teamwork would be much better.
As valid as these points seem, the odds of a team down 3-0 not seeing a Game 7, let alone coming back, are still extremely low — so low that even a truly qualitative counter can’t account for it. a little. Assuming there are 30 instances and an average of 10.6% chance of seeing a Game 7, there’s a 97% chance that we should see at least one. If there’s a 5.2% chance of seeing more than 30 comebacks, then we have an 80% chance of seeing at least one in this regard.
The potential for chaos has been high enough over the past decade. They just haven’t shown it yet. This may happen with small samples; the 30 Series definitely fits the bill.
In larger samples, though, the odds do tend to even out, and that’s best illustrated by the beginning of the salary cap era. There, the odds perfectly reflect reality.
From 2006 to 2014, there were 38 series in which teams trailed 3-0 — but those teams clearly had more fight. A higher percentage of teams won at least one game (57%), two teams forced a Game 7 and lost (Detroit and Chicago in 2011), and two of those teams won (2014 Los Angeles and Philadelphia in 2010).
Their average odds? Same as the past decade: 11% will force a Game 7, 5% will reverse it.
Add up all the odds, and that nine-year span has been as dramatic as expected: 4.1 Game 7s and 2.1 comebacks. This is in stark contrast to what we have received over the past decade. Hockey fans are long overdue.
Just because it’s overdue doesn’t mean it will happen. It’s a fallacy to assume there will be more Game 7s and comebacks after a team falls behind 3-0 just because something like this hasn’t happened in a while. But that doesn’t mean it’s more likely to happen in the near future. On average, Game 7 odds are still around 1 in 10 and a comeback is around 1 in 20 odds.
But we were as close as we could get to a hurricane.
For Carolina specifically, the odds changed after winning Games 4 and 5. Complete the comeback. For the first time in ten years, we have the opportunity to witness history.
The Rangers’ odds remain at 3-2, with no one expecting the Presidents Cup champion to earn a necessary fourth victory. But the Hurricanes also have a good team that has a real chance to live up to their mantra: “Cause chaos.”
(Photo: Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
