I’m not one to let good players pass.
I know from experience that even with the best-laid plans, talent is difficult to replace if you don’t take a step back. So I understand that, at least sometimes, proven teams need to pay a little more for continuity.
But recent NFL wide receiver contracts have forced me to at least question my philosophy. What this tells me is that NFL general managers and team builders are definitely thinking about this as well.
It’s not because these receivers lack talent. They are all very good players. But the number of contracts makes team building more complex than ever.
The dilemma is twofold. First, if you’re going to pay a wide receiver over $30 million a year, are you sure he’s a difference-maker and not just a guy who fits your system? Second, is it feasible to pay more than one wide receiver on the roster a high salary?
The Football General Manager Podcast is back, time-travelled #NFLDraft & more… @RandyMueller_ &I combine WR evaluation in the draft with WR evaluation in the veteran market&What? #bill For example, trying.
There are also some lesser-known players worth keeping an eye on#NFL…
— Mike Sando (@SandoNFL) May 11, 2024
Ten years ago, the NFL’s highest-paid wide receiver made about $16 million a year, or about 12 percent of the $133 million cap. Today, AJ Brown’s annual income is $32 million, with a cap hit of $255 million. That’s still only 12.5% of the cap. But let’s take a closer look.
In 2014, the two receivers making $16 million a year were Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, who were the clear standard-bearers at the position. There aren’t enough top receivers, and every new contract resets the market. Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones and AJ Green signed new contracts in 2015, but none made more than $15 million per year. Until Antonio Brown reached $17 million per year in 2017 (a year after Johnson retired), the Fitzgerald and Johnson deals were eclipsed and accounted for just 10.2% of the $167 million cap.
The wide receiver market has reset twice in the past month, and we’re on the verge of jumping again, with Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase and Brandon Aiyuk all gearing up for new transaction. All four could reasonably reset the market, so we’re probably looking at $35 million per year — which would be 13.7% of the cap — or more. That leaves the Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers facing big decisions affecting their rosters.
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The team must seriously consider where the money will come from. How much is too much for a non-quarterback? Does it make sense for a position group other than QB to exceed 20% of the team’s cap? How will this impact decisions elsewhere on the roster?
Jefferson is arguably the best receiver in the league, and Minnesota should certainly re-sign him. But costs will tighten money spent elsewhere, such as last year’s first-round pick, 22-year-old Jordan Addison, when his rookie deal ends. Of course, if the Vikings’ assessment of JJ McCarthy proves to be accurate, signing a quality quarterback to a five-year rookie deal might be just what the doctor ordered. If I were running the Vikings, I would pay Jefferson and keep churning out the WR2 after Addison’s trade ends.
Jerry Jones and the Cowboys may need to be more creative when dealing with Lamb. Jones already has a quarterback dilemma worth more than $50 million on his hands, and Dak Prescott has all the leverage in this never-ending game. As long as Prescott is at quarterback, the Cowboys’ ability to evaluate will likely be challenged more than most as they seek the value of other receivers to pair with Lamb.
If I were the Bengals, I’d probably sign Chase — who has two years left on his deal — as soon as possible to avoid resetting the market once the Lamb and Jefferson trades arrive. With Higgins out at the end of this season, another big NFL Draft investment may be needed at the position next year.
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The 49ers’ situation is more complicated than that of the Bengals, who have already paid Deebo Samuel ($23.8 million per year, $28.6 million against the 2024 salary cap) and Aiyuk into the final year of his contract (with a 2024 salary cap hit). $14.1 million). Both players’ names have been popular in trade rumors this offseason. The Niners hedged their bets by selecting Florida State receiver Ricky Pearsall in the first round last month, giving themselves an option at the position.
My crystal ball tells me this team will be renovated after the 2024 season. Aiyuk and Samuel are expected to have a salary cap hit of $42.7 million this season. Add Pearsall and tight end George Kittle, and the four receivers (22 percent) have a salary cap hit of more than $56 million. Samuel is the eighth-highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL and likely ranks third in the 49ers’ position space in terms of route running and ball skills. Something has to give.
Will Deebo Samuel (left) or Brandon Aiyuk be elsewhere in 2025? (Ciaran Henderson/Getty Images)
Players deserve everything they can get — I’m not going to argue that point here — but even NFL teams with the most creative rosters will eventually be forced to pay for their extended credits, as far as Like you and me.
When players become too expensive, nothing says it better than cheaper options.
The team selected 35 receivers in the 2024 draft. That’s not unusual, but a total of seven players selected in the first round caught my attention. Of course, this might just be a year where some special talent is available. But it could also be related to some other factors:
1. As experienced receivers become more expensive, teams need more cheap talent.
2. In this era of seven-on-seven competition and wide-open college passing offenses, receivers have more advanced skills at a younger age.
3. Good talent evaluators can correctly identify and rank receivers, leading to smoother NFL projections.
If you can identify characteristics beyond statistics, height, weight and speed that improve a prospect’s hit rate, then you can find value. These are my top three characteristics that I consider a good receiver for any scheme, and if you watch enough tape you’ll find these characteristics:
• Establish gaps and/or gear changes at breakpoints while driving a route.
• Use your thoughts and reactions (or instincts) to examine and differentiate between pre-snapshot and post-snapshot coverage.
• Continuously extend your hands to get closer to the defender to catch the ball, allowing the smaller guy to hit bigger and the bigger guy to make a bigger impact.
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Recent draft classes have been rich in receiving talent. Even in this year’s free agent pool, there’s some good value. In short, you don’t have to pay a high price to get value at wide receiver.
Some teams, including the Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, have already chosen lanes. (Of course, having a talented quarterback makes it easier for them to consider that path.)
The Packers and Chiefs traded Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill before the 2022 season rather than pay them. Adams gets $28 million per year from the Las Vegas Raiders and Hill gets $30 million per year from the Miami Dolphins. The Bills traded Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans this offseason, two years after he signed a two-year contract extension worth $24 million per year.
While the Adams trade didn’t exactly work out for the Raiders, Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst has revamped Green Bay’s receivers through the developmental route.
Christian Watson, a second-round pick in 2022, is a straight-line long-striker who can eat up the cushion, drive past defenses and catch the ball when covered. His playing style is similar to Jameson Williams, whom the Detroit Lions drafted earlier with the 22nd overall pick. In the 4th round that year, the Packers selected Romeo Doubs, who will make $1.1 million this year after catching 59 passes in 2023. The soft spot and ability to differentiate defenses are similar to those of the Lions’ Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Last year, the Packers took Jaden Reed (64 catches as a rookie) in the 2nd round and Dontavion Weeks (39 catches, 14.9 yards per catch) in the 5th round.
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Of course, that requires convincing in your assessment, but Green Bay deserves credit for overhauling this team almost entirely with draft picks (no picks in the first round), as those four receivers in 2024 A total of $6.3 million will be spent against the salary cap.
I’m not saying the Lions are wrong, but it’s a useful comparison. They reset the market by paying St. Brown $30 million per year, even though he ranked 71st in the NFL in air yards per target (7.75) and 39th in yards per catch (12.7) last season. . I understand the importance of keeping peace in the locker room and rewarding hard workers and leaders. He fits their system. But the signing may have angered some outside of the Lions’ front office and fans, who felt it was money well spent. The Lions did let 29-year-old wide receiver Josh Reynolds go, so they showed they’re willing to make tough choices as well.
There’s no doubt that with the help of Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have thrived just like the Packers since abandoning the market and getting younger. The Bills, led by Josh Allen, took a similar route this offseason, opting for quantity over quality after trading Diggs and letting go of Gabe Davis, and drafted Reasonably priced veterans Curtis Samuel, Max Valdes-Scantling and Chase Claypool along with second-round pick Keon Coleman.
Of course, there are still some teams on the opposite end of the spectrum. The Seattle Seahawks are paying DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett a combined $41.3 million per year (they restructured Lockett’s contract this offseason) before drafting a receiver in the first round in 2023 (Jaxon Smith Ngiba). After that, total annual revenue still comes to $57 million (22.4% of the cap).
The Eagles struggled to draft and develop receivers, missing out on Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor, JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Jalen Reagor with the top 60 picks draft picks, and then those investments were made. I can’t help but wonder: Is paying Brown and Smith a reaction to their previous struggles at the position?
There’s not necessarily a right way to deal with the rising cost of wide receivers. If there is, I’m not sure we know it now. Many theories are still being tested.
But here’s something to consider: There’s always a price to pay for the team great money for OK Players are in a position of real scarcity, such as quarterback. But I don’t think wide receiver is a truly scarce position, especially in the modern NFL. So the recent price shock to the contract gives me pause.
I’m still not in favor of letting any good players go, but with every trade set in the market, the cost becomes harder and harder to justify.
(Top photo of Amon-Ra St. Brown (left) and Justin Jefferson: Cooper Neal, Grant Halvorson/Getty Images)
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