Een miscalculatie van 450 miljard dollar?

New academic research challenges the circular story of industry and exposes fundamental economic errors. The circular economy model of fashion, which was presented for a long time as the solution to tackle textile waste at the same time, to reduce CO2 emissions and to maintain economic growth, could be built on fundamentally wrong economic assumptions. This is apparent from new academic research.

A study by Loughborough University London, published in the Peer-Reviewed Magazine Frontiers in Sustainability, has shown that the amount of 500 billion dollars in potential economic savings by circular fashion with no less than 450 billion dollars could be overestimated.

The research, led by Talia Hussain, carried out an extensive analysis of 20 influential reports from non-academic organizations, including the Ellen Macarthur Foundation and McKinsey. It noted that these documents contain poorly defined concepts that are independent of the established economic theory, which raises serious questions about the viability of the current circular fashion advances.

The fashion industry faces many challenges in the field of sustainability that are unfortunately not successfully tackled. “We see problems in every phase and on every scale. From water and land use to chemicals, fossil fibers, abuse of workers, overproduction and ultimately textile waste,” Hussain said in the report. “We can see over-exploitation of water from space. Polyester microfibers pollute the deepest ocean water and also our body. Our research shows that the circular fashion solution, which has been embraced by governments and industry, does not pass the least control.”

The circularity paradox

The findings articulate a fundamental tension that many experienced people in industry have recognized private life for years: the inherent paradox between economic growth and circular objectives, according to Ecotextile News. The research highlights various critical economic contradictions:

Circular practices generally reduce profit margins due to higher processing costs and logistics complexity. If the production volumes decrease to achieve the environmental objectives, the operating revenues inevitably shrink, which further threatens profitability. Extended life cycles of clothing fundamentally undermine the business model of production, which may cause commercial value in supply chains to disappear.

“We have heard for ten years whisper from doubts of experienced figures from the industry,” said Ecotextile in her April issue, where this research was first reported. “Successful entrepreneurs at trade fairs and events have long wondered whether proposed circular business models can actually generate sustainable profits.”

The consequences for employment are particularly worrying. A truly circular system could possibly delete millions of jobs in production in developing countries and at the same time make a large part of the sustainability infrastructure that has been created in recent years.

Misplaced focus on consumer behavior

The research also highlights a critical wrong coordination in the way in which industry approaches sustainability challenges. Although consumer behavior is invariably positioned as the pivot point for change, system errors within the industry itself, in particular, get the removal of unsold stock and inefficiency in production, relatively little attention. This criticism corresponds to what pragmatics have been arguing for years: using existing textile technology and infrastructure to produce clothing of higher quality and with a better fit that naturally extends the life of the product. This approach may offer the double advantage of reducing the environmental impact while retaining or even increasing profit margins.

Technology is not the limitation

Perhaps the most worrying is the unveiling that many necessary technologies for making circular systems possible have existed for decades. The research suggests that the availability of technology is not the most important obstacle to implementation, but rather the fundamental economic incompatibility of circularity with profit -driven business models.

Policy implications

These findings are now coming at a crucial moment that policy makers throughout Europe and beyond developing regulatory frameworks on the basis of the principles of the circular economy. The research suggests that such policy can prove to be ineffective or even counterproductive without tackling the underlying economic contradictions.

The researchers call on stakeholders to critically review the circular fashion models and to explore new approaches that give priority to real system changes, even if this challenges conventional profit models.