FFor four months, Russian forces have been trying to seize the village of Sinkivka in eastern Ukraine. On the map, this looks easy. Their forward position was at the edge of the forest. It is only 500 meters away from the Ukrainian front line and is surrounded by shabby huts.
Every few days, the Russians would attack. Their attempts on open ground all ended the same way: a complete disaster. Men sat in armored vehicles, speeding through moon-like craters and shattered trees. Things quickly went wrong. Some were caused by landmine explosions; Others panic and turn the tables. The Ukrainians used drones and artillery to eliminate fleeing infantry. As a rule, all Russians die.
“It’s really bad out there,” said Ukrainian drone operator Gleb Molchanov, showing footage he shot above the battlefield four miles northeast of the city of Kupinsk. The images are horrific. Bodies can be seen lying in zigzag ditches and frozen hollows. Nearby are the burnt remains of BMP-1 tanks, at least 10 of them. Still, the Russians pressed on.
Nearly two years after Putin’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine abandoned the offensive. Instead, it adopted a strategy of active defense: blocking Russian attacks and launching occasional counterattacks. Meanwhile, Moscow wants to move on. It has mobilized tens of thousands of troops in the Kupiansk region. Many are former prisoners, recruited directly from prison and serving in “Storm-Z” units.
The Kremlin has two immediate goals. One is to recapture Kupyansk, the gateway to Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city. Another objective was to capture the important town of Avdievka, not far from Donetsk, the capital of the occupied region. So far, Moscow has failed to achieve both military goals. In the process, it lost a staggering number of troops, tanks, and equipment.
The difficulties Russia experienced at Sinkievka are indicative of broader problems facing both militaries. “This is an armored war against artillery shells. Currently, the projectile is winning,” Molchanov said. The Russians achieved some tactical success, driving Ukrainian soldiers from the forest and several villages. But he said a major breakthrough would be nearly impossible in the age of cheap, deadly and precise drones.
The result of widespread use of drones by Ukraine and Russia is a war that makes traditional NATO doctrine “almost obsolete,” Molchanov said. The first-person view kamikaze drones cost $400 (£315) each. He said they were purchased from Chinese online marketplace Alibaba. “No one really knows how to move forward now. Everything has been destroyed by drones and artillery,” he said.
Kupyansk was captured by Russia on the third day of the invasion, but lost seven months later. Putin had reportedly ordered his generals to retake the spring territory on the east bank of the Oskill River, where the main railroad cities were located. These include Synkivka (once a small village with 3 roads and a clubhouse), and the neighboring villages of Petropavlivka and Kucherivka.
“Their plans are inconsistent with our plans,” said Andrei Besedin, the head of the Kupyansk junta.
He noted from his windowless basement office that the previous deadline for Russia to occupy Ukrainian territory had passed. He said Moscow’s “meat grinder” strategy was ineffective, adding: “They don’t care about human life, including their own people. Or us.”
Besedin said what happens next depends on whether Kiev gets more weapons from the “civilized world.” “Maybe we have enough force to defend. But it’s not enough to defeat the enemy.” He said the dispute in Washington – where congressional Republicans blocked $61 billion in security aid to Kyiv – was critical for both Kupiansk and the remaining It had a huge impact on the fate of the 3,500 people there.
With their troops trapped, a vengeful Russia razed the city to the ground. Last year it destroyed the Kupiansk Museum, killing its director and destroying the apricot-colored Palace of Culture. It bombed hospitals, polyclinics and hilltop administration buildings. Markets, meatpacking plants and Universal Fish Co. were also hit. The latest civilian victim was 53-year-old Olena Lashkova, who died during a strike at her home in Kupiansk-Vuzlovy on Thursday.
Besedin said Kupinsk was once a “sweet” place with factories, jobs and schools. In summer, couples stroll in the park, and children swim in the river and play under the willow trees. He said his former mayor abandoned the city without a fight and then disappeared, possibly to Russia. When asked if there was a future for Kupyansk, Besedin replied: “Yes. When the Donetsk and Luhansk regions are liberated, we can help.”
Besedin said some local residents refused to leave despite the onslaught on Moscow. “We ask them every day. We have a hotline. But it’s up to them,” he said. In September and January, authorities forcibly evacuated parents with their children from villages heavily affected by fighting. There are no civilians left in Sinkivka, but some residents – most of them elderly – are clinging to their homes in nearby settlements, defying attacks from S-300 missiles and aerial bombs.
Many people became casualties. Inna Diakiv, a neurosurgeon at Kharkiv Regional Hospital, said patients in Kupiansk and surrounding areas tell her they want to be self-reliant. “They said they were guarding their property or couldn’t leave because of their pets.” Diakiv believes a small group of people are waiting for the Russians to return. “They won’t say that publicly. You can guess. Russia is the reason they’re hurt. It’s crazy,” she said.
Bohdan Voitsekovskyi, deputy chief of the far-right Freikorps volunteer force, said Russian politics explained the recent doomed attacks. In March this year, Putin became president for the fifth time. “Elections are copycat events,” Wojciechowski said. “Still, the regime needed to convince people to vote for Putin and show their support. So they captured a few hundred meters and suffered heavy losses. They needed to achieve something and sell it as a success.”
Predictions that Russia would launch a major offensive on Kupyansk in early January proved wrong. Kharkiv region governor Oleh Syniehubov said the enemies were regrouping. Last week, Russian forces launched two to five attacks a day, compared with 15 to 20 over the New Year period. They have no strike teams in the area and winter conditions make operations difficult.
Molchanov said that Moscow has not yet proposed a plan to break through Ukraine’s defense lines. “We’re in a technological impasse right now,” the drone operator said. When asked if the Russians could break through, he replied: “The game is theirs. They decide when and where to attack. But I don’t think they can get to Kupiansk. Without skill or innovation, neither side can” Win.”
Last week, Molchanov and his team noticed footprints in the snow outside Sinkivka. They lead to an underground hideout. It was dug under the metal skeleton of an abandoned Russian armored vehicle. Molchanov used his drone camera to zoom in on the photo. Then he dropped a bomb. It was unclear if anyone was inside. “My job is to kill Russians. They shouldn’t be here. I don’t feel sorry for them,” he said.