With the NBA closing in on a new media rights deal, much of the focus has been on what it means for the league and its teams. But there is another beneficiary of this series of deals, which will reportedly pay the league an average of $6.9 billion over 11 years: the players.
Those new deals — whether they end up with Warner Bros. Discovery Channel, NBC or Amazon as a partner with Disney — should be more than double the current deal, which is expected to pay the league about $30 million next season in the final year of its deal with Disney. billion Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery Channel. Although there is no guarantee, the expectation of team executives is that starting from the 2025-26 season, the salary cap in the first few seasons in the new media environment will increase by up to 10%.
The infusion of money into the league will likely result in a feat once thought impossible: a $100 million salary.
NBA players have amassed wealth like never before. Any player in the 2022 draft class will have the opportunity to earn more than $1 billion in NBA contracts (not including any endorsement or sponsorship deals). If the salary cap continues to rise as expected, a player might be able to earn that much over two contracts in his prime. Jaylen Brown’s record-setting contract, which could be worth as much as $304 million, may seem tiny in comparison.
NBA salaries could hit their first $100 million by the 2032-33 season. Assume next season’s salary cap is $141 million, as the league currently anticipates, and then the salary cap is raised 10%.
Under this projection, the salary cap will exceed $302 million, which would push some players over the $100 million threshold. For example, a player in the first year of a supermax contract (paying 35% of the salary cap) could earn as much as $105.79 million in the 2032-33 season, which is Stephen Curry’s league-high $51.9 million this season. double. Players in the second year of the supermax contract that took effect last season can earn $103.86 million that season. Players in the third year of supermax contracts starting in the 2030-31 season can earn $101.41 million.
The size of the contract will be jaw-dropping. Based on those estimates, a five-year supermax contract starting in the 2030-31 season would be worth $507 million. One starting next season will be worth $557.78 million. The supermax contract starting in the 2032-33 season is worth $613.56 million.
Expected NBA super-max contract
| season | Estimated upper limit | 35% of maximum salary | Super huge transaction |
|---|---|---|---|
|
24-25th |
$141 million |
$49.35 million |
$286.23 million |
|
25-26 |
$155.1 million |
US$54.29 million |
$314.85 million |
|
26-27th |
$170.61 million |
$59.71 million |
$346.34 million |
|
27-28th |
$187.671 million |
US$65.68 million |
$380.97 million |
|
28-29th |
$206.438 million |
US$72.25 million |
$419.07 million |
|
29-30 days |
US$227.082 million |
US$79.48 million |
$460.98 million |
|
30-31 |
$249.79 million |
US$87.43 million |
$507.07 million |
|
31-32 |
US$274.769 million |
US$96.17 million |
$557.78 million |
|
32-33 |
$302.246 million |
$105.79 million |
$613.56 million |
Of course, these numbers may be overly generous. Maybe the salary cap won’t go up 10% every year and salaries won’t go up that fast. While national media rights are likely to account for around 30-40% of all basketball revenue when operations begin, local media revenue appears set to decline — and who knows what other issues may arise.
This schedule may also be too slow. Either the NBA or NBPA can opt out of this CBA before October 15, 2028, which will trigger a new CBA for the 2029-30 season. What if the CBA has no salary cap smoothing mechanism and there is no cap on the rate at which the salary cap can rise? Or does it eliminate the maximum salary limit of 35% of the salary cap? Be prepared for some big numbers.
NBA commissioner Adam Silver and president of global content and media distribution Bill Koenig certainly made many people happy. The league’s new collective bargaining agreement was crafted with a new media rights agreement in mind, which should allow the NBA to maintain labor peace through the end of this CBA, which will last until 2030 if no one opts out. There’s always a small possibility that the NBA will have to implement the opt-out provision in the current CBA, which allows the NBA to withdraw from the agreement if its media revenue drops below a certain threshold compared to previous revenue. But with such huge numbers, the league and its players are approaching even greater fortunes.
Because it’s never too early to talk about the offseason — at least that’s what every TV show about the NBA tells me — now is a good time to remind everyone of this summer’s hottest read: the CBA.
Some of the most restrictive parts of the new CBA will take effect next season, with the new salary cap year starting July 1.
Starting from the first day of the just-concluded regular season, teams above the first pitch ($172.346 million) can only trade players that match the salary value of their trade. Any traded player exceptions made in the past year to the first-patch team will no longer be available to the first-patch team unless they return to the puck below.
Teams above the second pitch ($182,794) can no longer aggregate player salaries — a rule that goes into effect at the end of the regular season. These teams cannot send away their own players in sign-and-trades, nor can they send away cash in trades.
The “freeze draft picks” rule will take effect next season. If a team is above the second apron on the final day of the 2024-25 regular season, its first-round pick seven years later (2032) cannot be traded. If the team is on the second pad in two of the next four years, that frozen pick will also move to the end of the first round of that year’s draft. A team can unfreeze its draft picks if it’s below or equal to the second paddock for at least three of the next four years.
If a team does one of the things listed above, it will be severely limited on the tarmac threshold it has yet to cross.
If a team completes a trade between the end of the regular season and the start of the new salary cap year, and the operation of the trade is not allowed to the team above the first or second tarmac, then the team will be in The remaining time is subject to a hard salary cap. But the new CBA does give teams some flexibility, as it won’t take effect until the end of the 2024-25 regular season. From the end of the 2023-24 regular season through June 30, 2024, teams can still have their total payroll above tarmac levels without being subject to a hard cap.
There’s also a new concern for teams that don’t hit the salary floor. Beginning in the 2024-25 season, teams that do not play will not receive any of the funds paid to non-taxpaying teams.
Beginning July 1, teams can now use the non-taxpayer mid-level, room-level mid-level or biennial exceptions to trade one or more players or acquire a player through a waiver claim (the player’s contract cannot exceeds the maximum contract period) the length allowed by this exception). Exceptions will not be aggregated.
The team will also gain more freedom through contract extensions and trades. From July 1, these people will be able to work for a total of four years and be paid 120% of their previous salary.
(Photo: David Burdine/Getty Images)
