There are 32 teams on a mission to win Super Bowl 58 this season. Eight teams remain.
Jeff Howe breaks down this weekend’s four divisional round games. AthleticA projection model created by Austin Mock reveals each team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl.
AFC
After the Bills beat the Steelers, look at the AFC playoff bracket.
◽️ Ravens-Texans: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
◽️ Bills-Chiefs: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ETWho do you think will advance to the conference tournament? pic.twitter.com/fsz3vSg6bP
— The Athlete (@TheAthletic) January 16, 2024
No. 1 Baltimore Ravens vs. No. 4 Houston Texans, Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET
Texans rookie quarterback CJ Stroud performed well in his playoff debut, completing 16 of 21 passes for 274 yards and three touchdowns. Stroud was remarkably composed in the early stages of his career. He has completed at least 75 percent of his passes in three straight games and has not thrown an interception in six straight games.
Perhaps no one is better positioned to strengthen their head coaching candidates during wild-card weekend than Texas offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and teams with vacancies will be looking to match up with Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Mike Macdonald’s chess game. The Ravens have allowed an average of 15.5 points in their last four games against strong teams (Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers).
deeper
What C.J. Stroud and his parents saw early on, the world is now seeing
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is likely to win his second MVP award next month, but he’s under pressure to perform in the postseason, having lost three of four career starts. And his pass completion rate was below 60% in every loss.
The Ravens won the franchise’s only postseason meeting 12 years ago.
No. 2 Buffalo Bills vs. No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
The weekend’s marquee matchup will mark the postseason debut of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have been more inconsistent than usual this season, but their defense hasn’t declined; Scored no more than 20 points in six consecutive games.
The Bills’ six-game winning streak began in Week 14 in Kansas City, and they’ve beaten tough opponents along the way. Four of those six wins came against playoff teams, including Monday’s win against the Steelers.
Of course, the biggest news here is the rematch between the two strongest teams in the AFC in recent years. Mahomes has beaten quarterback Josh Allen’s Bills twice in the playoffs since the 2020 season, and both games were entertaining offenses.
The Chiefs are seeking their sixth straight division title game, while the Bills are looking to avoid a third straight loss in the divisional round.
near field communication
The NFC Divisional Round has been determined.
◽️ 49ers vs Packers
◽️Lions vs BuccaneersCall now. Who advances to the NFC Divisional Championship? pic.twitter.com/D2RzHcRhYe
— The Athlete (@TheAthletic) January 16, 2024
No. 1 San Francisco 49ers vs. No. 7 Green Bay Packers, Saturday at 8 p.m. ET
The Packers currently have as many playoff wins as the Dallas Cowboys (3) at AT&T Park and are in the wild-card round behind the stellar performances of quarterback Jordan Love and running back Aaron Jones. Created the biggest upset. They had a very strict game plan to control the game, make shots when necessary and prevent big plays on defense, and they executed it to perfection. The combination of great coaching and high-level performance should make the 49ers nervous, as those traits can carry over into the postseason.
The 49ers allowed the third-fewest rushing yards during the regular season, but that was because their opponents were forced to attack from behind frequently, resulting in the Niners facing the fewest rushing attempts in the league. They allowed 4.1 yards per carry, which ranked 14th, slightly better than Dallas (4.2).
deeper
Are there cracks in the 49ers playoff machine?Yes, but you have to squint to find them
The Niners are a deserving No. 1 seed and have legitimate Super Bowl aspirations, but they have reason to worry as they prepare for a hot and confident Green Bay team that has won four straight and nine games Seven wins in the tournament. The Niners played several starters in the final game of the regular season, so they’ll know if they’re rested or rusty after many of their stars haven’t played since New Year’s Eve.
The 49ers have won four straight playoff games against the Packers.
No. 3 Detroit Lions vs. No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday at 3 p.m. ET
No one had a bigger party over the weekend than the Lions, who won their first playoff game in 32 years and their second since 1957. They will host multiple games in a single playoff game for the first time in the franchise’s 94-year history.
deeper
Lions’ first playoff win in 32 years is pure courage, followed by tears of joy
This will be a rematch between two strong teams, with the Lions winning 20-6 in Week 6 in Tampa. The Buccaneers, fresh off a win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night, were not going to back down when facing the favored Lions in a hostile environment. It’s also a showdown between quarterbacks Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield, who were both drafted No. 1 but went on to find success in new organizations.
The two teams have met once before in the playoffs, with the Buccaneers winning 20-10 in 1997.
deeper
Does offense or defense win the Super Bowl?How the best teams fared in the NFL playoffs
deeper
NFL Playoffs: Key games to watch in every AFC divisional matchup
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen: David Ulett/Getty Images)
The Football 100, the authoritative ranking of the 100 best players of all time in the NFL, is on sale now. Order here.
