The power of their all-out frontal attack
Even before their recent Six Nations triumph, Ireland stood out in the extent to which they battered opposition defences.
This goes beyond the international stage. The world record for most tackles in a single game is 518 between Leinster and Connacht in January 2020, while the single-team record is 331 against Leinster in Glasgow the previous year. Break. Jonny Gray alone produced 43. Meanwhile, the top eight tackles in Six Nations history have all come against Ireland.
A similar pattern emerged this year. The Irish have forced 181 tackles per game through the first three rounds. Wales is ranked 167, but the next three countries are ranked around 130 (Italy is ranked 105). Ireland’s average possession rate is 58%, by some margin the highest in the tournament. Conversely, defensively, while England made fewer tackles, Ireland seemed to share the load more evenly. They have just one player — Caelan Doris — ranked among the top 30 tackles.
It’s not the number of tackles that matters, it’s what you do with it
Having the other team make a lot of tackles is not in itself a guarantee of victory. Ireland have lost three of the eight games in which opponents have made a record number of tackles (Glasgow beat Leinster in 2019).
Some players corrupt, some create, and some cause harm. Great teams combine all three. It stands to reason, though, that any player who can graft, create and hurt is truly special – as is a team full of them. Everywhere you look across this Irish team, there are some punishing ball-handlers who are comfortable on the ball and very productive.
The comparison between Ireland and Wales last weekend was telling. In fact, Wells had Ireland tackled almost as often, but they didn’t have the weapons to hurt them. Ireland had more possession of the ball than any team, nearly 800 meters more than second-placed Wales. However, when it comes to meters above the gain line, proportionally they are even further ahead (while Wales fall to the bottom by that metric). The Irish have made 30 breaks; everyone else has earned between 13 and 11.
Opposition team in progress
It seems absurd to describe a team that has won silver and bronze at the past two World Cups as a work in progress, but England certainly are. The most striking aspect of their Six Nations campaign so far has been their rushing defence. As Andy Farrell hinted after the game against Wales, his Leinster players are now coached by Jacques Ninabe who successfully developed this defense in South Africa. However, there are rumors that South Africa are far more concerned about losing current England defense coach Felix Jones than Ninaber.
Jones still has a lot of work to do defensively. From an attacking perspective, England looked worse than before, but their first try against Scotland was superb and felt very Irish in terms of timing and use of dummy runs. George Ford doesn’t want to be remembered for the few passes he made at Murrayfield, but he’s still the boss. If Ireland are the king of possession-starved teams, England have kept their opponents in their own half more often than any other team (41 per cent of the time).
But enough about statistics and tactics, they are grossly overrated as indicators of match results. More important is mental quotient, which is a simple question of who is likely to play well relative to expectations — or, just as importantly, who is likely to play poorly. If you don’t perform well, no game plan or tactic in the world can help you.
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Of course, Ireland have room for error here as they are a better team than England. Next Saturday you can give the home team a 4-1 win, which means bookmakers give them a 20% chance of winning their own game. The handicap is as high as 12 points. Ireland could afford the rest day and escape with victory.
However, the existence of these possibilities will surely leave England foaming at the mouth. Looking at the stardust in the opening game against Scotland, and the intensity of the World Cup semi-finals they were so unlucky to lose to the Springboks, a home win was definitely within the realm of imagination. But England had no room for error.
Six Nations Momentum Law
Don’t let anyone tell you that Grand Slams are hard to come by. This achievement has been achieved far too often in the Six Nations era (13 out of 24 games). This is largely due to the momentum that the winner builds in such a short period of time, and just as importantly, the momentum that wanes for all the losing teams.
If Scotland get their chance against France, we could create something very rare (only one in 24 games), a Grand Slam decider. They responded by denying England the chance to build some winning momentum of their own, and the pain will inspire Steve Borthwick’s side to do the same against Ireland.
But when the intensity of the game brings tears to the eyes, often only the teams with the real stuff can pull through. Twickenham may be Ireland’s biggest challenge yet. If they win there, they are expected to claim their first back-to-back Grand Slams in the Six Nations.
