A Few of us spoke to Exeter Chiefs director of rugby Rob Baxter the other day about rugby’s toughest challenge. We all probably have a personal take on the subject: say, trying to stop a massive forward charge two meters from your own line, or having to kick a last-minute winning penalty into Gore from 50 meters out Wei’s strong wind.
Baxter spoke more generally, however, and answered the question from the perspective of an experienced coach. In his view, the most difficult obstacles to overcome are often mental. Especially the art of preparing to face an opponent you defeated the last time they fought you. “To go the extra mile in a game where you’ve already done well is the hardest thing in rugby,” insists Baxter. “The times I’ve been involved in it, whether it was playing or coaching, I would win by 30 points one week and the next time it would be different.”
He has this weekend’s Champions League last-16 tie between Bordeaux and Saracens on his mind. When Sarris visited the Jacques Chaban-Delmas Stadium in January, they lost 55-15. So, is a home win this Saturday a sure thing? In Baxter’s experience, that’s not the case. “Without a doubt, Bordeaux’s win over Saracens in the pool stage was their worst game to come back again. Saracens will be in a completely different place and they will be at war. Bordeaux will be thinking: ‘Like we did last time’ Hit the ball, throw it a little bit, try to score a few times, it’ll be great.'”
But, then again, who can say exactly which version of the Saracens will appear? Which team scored 50 points to beat the hapless Harlequins at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, or the beaten Thugs who scored 40 points at Northampton last Friday night? Meanwhile, Bordeaux performed well in the last 14 last month, beating title contenders Toulouse, but were firmly outclassed by weaker Lyon at the weekend.
Up, down, in, out… If you’re looking for a sport filled with danger, rugby league is hard to beat at the moment. What goes up one week may go down the next. The aforementioned Quins struggled against Sarris but were outstanding against Bath at home as they took a 40-3 lead early in the second half, but the visitors struggled in the final half. Only 33 points were scored on the hour. Try explaining this without calling the team psychologist.
There are clearly some reasonable explanations for these apparent differences. One of them is the home and away factor. Lineup rotation. It may seem like common sense to bring in a few freshmen after a huge win, but a team’s chemistry can be surprisingly subtle. Likewise, keeping the exact same XV won’t always produce the same results. As Baxter suggests, mentality is just as important as people.
The old Heineken Cup format of playing home and away games in consecutive weeks is a good example of this, with results often being very different from one week to the next. Take a team like Ulster: they’ll go to a team like Leicester and lose by double digits, then go back to Ravenhill and score 40 points. Perhaps the ultimate example is the 2003-04 season when they beat the Tigers 33-0 in Belfast but traveled to Welford Road the following weekend and lost 49-7.
It’s not just a home and away thing, though. There are all kinds of other intangible factors, from preparation disruptions and contractual disruptions to match-day traffic jams and sick family members. Life is rarely a straight line, and neither is football. Just as important, there are plenty of smart analysts poring over vast amounts of film footage endlessly. What worked last week—or even half an hour ago—may be shut down faster than you can say Steve Borthwick.
Furthermore, modern gaming itself has a fickle, knife-edge quality to it. You’ll increasingly sympathize with the coaches as they struggle to explain exactly how a bunch of their lads went from heroes to zero in the space of half an afternoon. When Quins staged the famous ‘Bristling Amber’ comeback from 28-0 down in the 2021 Premiership semi-finals, it felt like a once-in-a-lifetime achievement. Now, the team spends most weeks recovering from the brink of oblivion.
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Because, if the penalty count dries up and it’s no longer possible to kick a corner, win a lineout and turn the tide, momentum can be very difficult to stop. That’s why the incident of prop Irné Herbst’s premature return from the sin box during Quins’ match with Bass was so shocking. The point isn’t the actual tackle when Herbst returns to the field illegally, but the wider options Buss will face if he leaves the field.
So while at first glance most of the Champions League’s last 16 games look more likely to be won by the home team, it’s not that simple. Bordeaux won’t beat Sarris easily this time, as rugby rarely does. Northampton may have beaten Munster at Thomond Park in January but it will all mean nothing when the first whistle blows at Franklin Gardens this weekend. Which brings us back to the toughest task in rugby. The answer is obvious: referee a big game and don’t make a single mistake in everyone’s eyes. The Professional Football League has been around for nearly 30 years and it still hasn’t materialized.
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