The Jaguars overestimated themselves. Did they overestimate Trevor Lawrence too?

The NFL’s most surprising teams in Week 4 are at opposite ends of the standings.

The Minnesota Vikings are 4-0 after losing their drafted rookie quarterback and replacing him with the well-traveled Sam Darnold.

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The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-4 less than four months after signing quarterback Trevor Lawrence to a $275 million contract extension.

Here’s another surprise: Lawrence’s statistics in 54 career starts are consistent with Darnold’s performance at the same point in his career (Darnold is 57-60 in starts this season).

It’s too early to do an autopsy on the Jaguars, but so far, Jacksonville fits the profile of a team that overestimated itself, and that’s most evident when it comes to paying a quarterback. The team faced serious problems earlier than expected as winnable games disappeared, leaving the Jaguars with an 0-4 record for just the second time in Lawrence’s four seasons, also under owner Shad Khan. The team went 0-4 for the fourth time in 13 seasons.

The schedule features wins over opponents such as the Indianapolis Colts (2-2), Chicago Bears (2-2) and New England Patriots (1-3) over the next three weeks, but the Jaguars There were enough problems in the first four games. Including the Darnold-Lawrence combination.

“It won’t end well”

The Jaguars aren’t the only team to commit market-defining money to a quarterback with question marks ahead of the decision-making deadline. The Miami Dolphins are doing something similar with Tua Tagovailoa and the Arizona Cardinals are doing something similar with Kyler Murray. Lawrence and Murray both signed extensions with two years remaining on their rookie deals.

Shortly after the Jaguars re-signed Lawrence to a $55 million per year contract, 50 coaches and executives combined voted to rank Lawrence at Level 3 in my 2024 quarterback class survey. Bits. Tagovailoa ranks one spot higher. Murray is ranked one spot lower. (The three quarterbacks’ teams have a combined 2-10 record this season.)

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Lawrence’s deal came after the Jaguars lost five of their final six games last season, with their only win coming against Carolina when Lawrence was sidelined with an injury.

“They have a quarterback they think is a superstar, but he’s not a superstar,” one QB Tiers voter said over the summer. “The boss thinks he’s a superstar. It’s not going to end well.

That means Lawrence can be good, but not great enough, and his performances aren’t consistent enough to meet sky-high expectations.

“Without a doubt, this is the best team the Jacksonville Jaguars have ever put together,” Khan told fans in late August. “The best players, the best coach. But most importantly, let’s prove it now by winning.

Darnold comparison

Through 54 starts, Darnold and Lawrence have the same win-loss record (20-34), the same yards per carry (6.7) and nearly the same average yards per carry. Their passer rating lags behind. Darnold had more sacks. Lawrence’s passing turnovers increased.

Lawrence has a higher expected points per pass (EPA), but by looking at the chart below, we’d never conclude that one of these quarterbacks is worth the market-set extension while the other is Failed miserably.

Both players experienced bad team situations early in their careers – Darnold’s New York Jets were in the NFL’s largest media market, and Lawrence’s Jacksonville was in the smallest.

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“Good players can be in bad situations, bad players can be in good situations, and sometimes it takes a while to figure out the real strengths,” one veteran coach said.

In the Jaguars’ 24-20 loss to Houston in Week 4, Lawrence severely missed two open receivers, Christian Kirk and rookie Brian Thomas, on long touchdown passes.

Given those throws, head coach Doug Pederson pushed back when asked after the game about potentially taking over play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Price Taylor.

“For what?” Pederson replied. “I thought he had a great game. As coaches, we can’t go out and compete. It’s a two-way street.

Lawrence missed Thomas on the right side, which would have been another big gain. The receiver makes a diving catch to secure two shorter passes. Other passes were imprecise, limiting yards after the catch. Most turnovers are overturned.

“When someone is gunning for the ball so consistently and they’re a No. 1 overall (draft selection), I almost always feel like there’s some element of, I don’t want to say yes, but some degree of analytics that comes from NFL quarterbacks. JT O’Sullivan breaks down every offensive performance from the Jaguars in Week 4 for his Patreon subscribers.

O’Sullivan pointed out that Lawrence was jumping backwards unnecessarily when throwing in this game. Bad habits develop when quarterbacks don’t trust their pass protection. Lawrence got hit hard early in the game in Houston, where the Texans’ physical defensive front came into play.

The Jaguars rank 16th in ESPN’s pass-blocking win rate metric and 23rd in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking grade, which looks good. Comments within the league were harsher.

“They were playing in the frontcourt like they couldn’t wait for the game to end — it was hard to watch,” one personnel executive said before the Houston game. “The quarterback lacks easy throws. Has bad body language. Overall, offensively, it’s a downtrodden group.

Consider the potential Wentz parallel

During Pederson’s tenure as Super Bowl-winning coach from 2016 to 2020, the Philadelphia Eagles ranked 18th in offensive EPA per game. Does Lawrence follow a similar trajectory on a smaller scale?

The chart above compares Wentz’s and Lawrence’s cumulative passing EPA with Pederson, tied to career starts. Wentz’s team starts at career No. 1, while Lawrence’s team starts at career No. 18. There isn’t anything definitive here, but it might be worth revisiting as the 2024 season progresses.

Pederson benched Wentz at the end of their fifth and final season together. Lawrence is still in the early stages of his fourth NFL season and Pederson’s third. His five-year contract extension starts in 2026.

Lawrence loses nine straight

Lawrence’s current nine-game losing streak as a starter puts him within the longest stretch of a quarterback draft since 2000, tying Carson Palmer (2010) and Jared Goff (2020-21). The losing streak is still one step away.

Ten would also tie the Jaguars’ franchise record held by Chad Henne and Blake Bortles.

Darnold has been in this situation before, once with the Jets who were on a nine-game losing streak. But his recent team and individual production far exceeds that of Lawrence, as the chart below shows.

The decision to extend Lawrence’s contract at such a pricey price tag isn’t the only option Jacksonville has come under scrutiny. They traded the No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft for Travon Walker instead of Aidan Hutchinson. The broader defensive changes also stand out.

Last season, the Jaguars’ offense ranked 23rd and their defense ranked 11th according to EPA’s per-game numbers. They fired defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell and seven defensive assistants.

The offense ranks about the same this season (24th), but the defense ranks much worse (30th) amid the transition to a new style. Jacksonville has the second-highest man coverage rate under coordinator Ryan Nielsen (42 percent) after having the third-lowest man coverage rate last season (15 percent).

Darnold has attempted just two passes while trailing this season on the back of the NFL’s No. 1 defense in EPA per game. If Jacksonville’s defense can produce like this this season, the Jaguars’ record and Lawrence’s role in it will likely become a footnote.

Defensive changes can still pay off. Lawrence and the offense can still find their stride.

The Jaguars nearly scored in Miami’s season opener, but running back Travis Etienne fumbled as he approached the goal line. Two plays later, the Dolphins scored an 80-yard touchdown. With Jacksonville leading Houston 20-17 late in the third quarter, Tank Bisby’s 58-yard run set up the Jaguars’ first score of the fourth quarter.

The 24-20 loss to Houston moved the Jaguars to 1-4 in games decided by four points or less since the start of last season. Things like this tend to balance out. The night couldn’t happen fast enough for a team preparing to induct its only winning coach, Tom Coughlin, into the Ring of Honor in Week 5.

(Photo of Trevor Lawrence (right) and Doug Pederson: Brian Bennett/Getty Images)

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