SecondElections will not change the country overnight. They reveal changes that lie beneath political complacency and cultural habits—or that are visible but ignored. The seismic event, which won Labor a large number of seats, showed that tectonic pressures were building even before Rishi Sunak launched his campaign in heavy rain six weeks ago, and the land was already feeling Like being in a far away place.
While polls suggest Tory defeat seems inevitable, there’s a difference between predicting regime change and waking up to a UK that has already consigned dozens of Tory MPs to political oblivion and elected Keir with an absolute majority. Starmer is Prime Minister.
It is difficult to gauge the extent to which the results convey positive support for Labor and its leader. The need to punish the Conservatives for years of political misdeeds was obvious during the campaign, but not to jubilant Starmer fans. But disdain for the current government and enthusiasm for the only available alternative were never quite matched. The Lib Dems’ strong gains in some former Tory strongholds are partly a nod to Ed Davey’s party, but swing voters in these constituencies know that ousting the local Tories will help propel Starmer into Downing Street . They jumped at the chance.
The de facto tactical voting coalition that has crushed the Conservatives to their lowest level of parliamentary representation has revealed the underlying strength of a broad liberal, centrist moderate wing of British politics that is demoralizing and divided.
Starmer may not have wanted to talk about Brexit during the campaign (other than claiming in his defense that he would never reverse it), but the angry spirit raging in some Tory heartlands contains a strain of Remainer revenge .
The same cultural fault line emerged in the handful of seats won by the Reform Party and in the many more seats Nigel Farage’s party pushed the Conservatives into third place. In the terrain prepared for the 2016 EU referendum, reform has become a natural reservoir of dissatisfaction with the status quo. Farage himself, who finally infiltrated the House of Commons after seven failed attempts, would become a beacon for the anti-Westminster, anti-immigration, nationalist reaction. He will use his new parliamentary seat, just as he used the platform he had as a member of the European Parliament, to undermine the institution from within, enjoying the privileges it affords him while denouncing the entire system to rot.
Sunak’s failure to recognize that he could not compete with Faragist posturing while trying to run a serious, credible government was the decisive strategic mistake of his time in Downing Street.
The outgoing Prime Minister has the opportunity to cast himself as the antidote to the reckless and arrogant style of government embodied by Boris Johnson. Restoring the Conservative Party’s economic credibility after Liz Truss’s disastrous short reign may not be feasible, but restoring the “integrity, professionalism and accountability” Sunak promised when entering 10th should not be Out of reach.
But this cannot be achieved through a policy agenda based on the whims of far-right conservative factions. Sunak learned the hard way that if you offer voters a populist tribute act, they’re likely to just vote for the real thing. Whether Conservative MPs remaining in Parliament will learn this lesson is less certain. Many will look at the combined Reform and Conservative vote shares and imagine a path to revival through merger. Resisting them will be a long-silent faction of moderate Conservatives who recognize the folly of abandoning any attempt to appeal to voters whose Faragism is abhorrent.
Some of the frustration was expressed by Robert Buckland, who has just been ousted from his Swindon South constituency, urging colleagues to end “performance art politics” and “stop saying stupid things”. But the best incentive against wanton political folly should be the responsibilities that come with ministerial office. The Conservatives were not bound by this restriction when in power, which is the main reason why they have found themselves expelled so far.
In part, Sunak’s defeat sowed the seeds for the shaky electoral coalition Johnson assembled in 2019, promising to “get Brexit done”. Implementing an agenda in government that satisfies the divergent interests of culturally and geographically incongruent voting blocs (the former Labor working-class north and the traditional Tory south counties) is an impossible feat of political alchemy.
Now Starmer faces the same challenge. The size of Labour’s majority provides huge legislative powers, but the red sea on the map masks the complex divergence of interests and competing demands that the new government will struggle to meet. Seats recaptured in what used to be known as the “Red Wall” will not revert to old tribal loyalties.
The days of automatic party membership, passed down from generation to generation and worn as an unshakable badge of cultural identity are over. Johnson benefited greatly in 2019 from the dismantling of that force. But a series of dramatic shifts from one party to another shows that volatility and shallow connections have become the new normal.
Safety seats have become an endangered concept. Britain may have swung overwhelmingly to Labour, but the political mood and the pressure on Starmer will feel insignificant.
The impact is not limited to the traditional battle between Labor and the Conservatives. Many new Starmerite councilors will target the reforms as their local challengers. The Greens emerged victorious in recent parliamentary elections as a force capable of harassing the left-wing Labor Party. A warning of potential instability has also been raised by the expulsion of Jonathan Ashworth from Leicester South by an independent candidate who has stirred up opposition from the local Muslim community to Labour’s stance on Gaza stance of anger.
With a significant increase in representation in parliament, the Lib Dems will want to carve out some role for themselves rather than being fellow travelers and electoral accomplices of the Starmer government.
When a party has a majority, it tends to foster internal opposition. One of the organizational strengths of Starmer’s plan was its ruthless selection of compliant candidates. (This appeared to have backfired in Chingford and Wood Green, where Iain Duncan Smith held the seat, as the opposition vote was split between ousted former Labor candidate Faiza Shaheen and her hastily The incoming successor.) Progress on public spending limits, housing, foreign policy, etc. may dissent from members who have been vetted for their loyalty.
These are relatively complex issues for a new prime minister to consider on his first day of being elected with an overwhelming majority. There is reason to expect Starmer to be better able than Sunak to manage his party and the fractious electoral tribe it represents.
On the one hand, the Labor leader comes to work with a mission of his own, while the Tories he replaces wear ill-fitting old office robes provided by Johnson through Truss. What’s more, Starmer is no ideologue. He is a Labor man at heart – the name Kyle was reportedly chosen by his parents for the party’s first leader – but his party’s re-election process after a heavy defeat in 2019 revealed his pragmatism Intense devotion of spirit. what works.
Starmer hopes that continued demonstrations of competence will build real popularity on a broad but superficial electoral base. Optimistically, expecting cynical voters to be grateful to them won’t do any politician any favors, but Labor will have some leeway for the time being because it’s not a Tory party.
For those on the right who believe that Remainers are the enemy of the people and that the rule of law is a conspiracy against border controls, it will be difficult for them to accept that Starmer is a more authentic representative of the national mainstream than Johnson or Johnson. Labor has also strengthened its position as the most important party in the whole of the UK as it regained seats from the SNP.
The complications behind the headline majority do not fully justify Tony Blair’s repeated claim that Labor has become “the political faction of the British people”. But through the simple arithmetic of parliamentary democracy, Britain was revealed overnight to be Starmer’s country, not the Tory party.
This change is characterized not just by a pendulum swing from right to left, but by a change in the political spirit. The era of Downing Street dominated by ideological fanaticism is over. It gives way to something that shouldn’t be dramatic, but still brings a refreshing change – the prospect of real governance despite more volatility ahead.
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Raphael Bell is a columnist for The Guardian
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