The Six Nations Championship should be a marathon not a sprint. However, after an opening weekend that produced a runaway title favorite, that’s not how it feels right now. If this were the Cheltenham Gold Cup, many might have put down their binoculars and prepared to take home the classic Irish Championship roar, while others remain well ahead at home.
Sport’s fast-spinning wheel of fortune is never entirely certain, but no one at Roma or Cardiff will be rushing to back any so-called rival to Andy Farrell’s side. France were well behind in the first half in Marseille, and the other two games showed little sign that the remaining four nations were not yet at the level they needed to be. Whichever way you look at it, it’s looking like Ireland’s year right now.
It also highlights the dangers of hosting the tournament’s most important game on opening night. There is no “meeting” system to provide a guaranteed final result; Ireland have only three home games against Italy, Wales and Scotland in Dublin – which they have lost as often as it has snowed in Riyadh – and Heading to Twickenham to face an English side in rebuilding mode. Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets.
So the pressure is on Saturday’s winners, England and Scotland, to make some kind of big move and prevent what could be an entirely predictable one-horse race. Both teams, who won the first round by three points and one point respectively on the road, have home games this Saturday that will either provide real momentum or drag them back into first place. Particularly if England lose to Warren Gatland’s Wales at Twickenham, any quiet sense of satisfaction at Roma will suddenly disappear.
The return of several senior players such as George North and Will Rowlands already looks likely to give the visitors a boost, while Leicester wing Tommy Reiffel Tommy Reffell is a huge problem every time he comes on and Aaron Wainwright was outstanding against Scotland. Furthermore, as Italy discovered in the first half, the aggressive New England defensive system introduced by former South African assistant coach Felix Jones is still a work in progress.
This theory is totally fine. Sprinting forward in a blur of white, the ball carrier’s time and space to attack the gain line is minimized. However, with England having unfamiliar combinations and fresh faces in the squad, there is a risk of over-enthusiasm. In the end, Italy had three attempts on goal and England twice, with several of the goals being scored much easier than Steve Borthwick’s side had hoped. “We’ve been wrong a few times, haven’t we?” said George Ford. “The most important thing is for everyone to calm down and say ‘mistakes happened’, but we can’t commit again for the rest of the games. We have to stay committed to that.”
If there’s one thing Wales are keen to do from the start after their thrilling comeback against Scotland, it’s to push the tempo and pass the ball faster, which could make for a fascinating showdown. England will also be looking to be more aggressive, but with the match against Italy intensifying, they won’t be able to distinguish themselves from too many teams with their current squad. That means either drafting bigger alternatives at the 8 and center, or finding different, more creative ways to position and utilize space.
In terms of the latter, while Ethan Lutz won the Man of the Match award, one of England’s key players is now Tommy Freeman, who is exactly that kind of athletic, roaming Genius who can change the team’s offensive options. If Borthwick’s side really want to prosper this year, they need to get the ball into the hands of the Northampton wing more often and also look for one or two other ball carriers. Roots and promising Chandler Cunningham-South made encouraging Test debuts, while Northampton’s Tom Pearson is another mobile, quick-running player who will be worth a try at some stage.
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However, all of these are strictly relative. If an 80-minute masterpiece fails to kick off a season, the bad news for Ireland’s opponents is that their World Cup defeat appears to have made Farrell’s green machine even stronger. They also have a towering new totem in the predatory presence of Joe McCarthy in the second row and look set to tour Australia with the British and Irish Lions next year.
Sometimes it just takes one or two players to step in or step up and bring a new dynamic to the team. With Johnny Sexton retiring, Ireland needed a new name to spark excitement and ‘Big Joe’, as he was known, was clearly inspiring the rest of the Ireland squad, along with the ever-distinguished Taher Beirne. In contrast, the French exude all the joie de vivre of a conscientious partner while going on a long shopping trip with their spouse.
Scotland will also want to pay with a similarly downbeat plodding trip to Edinburgh next weekend. If both England and Scotland remain unbeaten going into the third round, their Calcutta Cup tie at Murrayfield will be even more intense than usual. Barring a truly spectacular blunder, though, Ireland will lose the trophy.
