Bookmakers believe Scotland are expected to beat Wales in Cardiff. Considering Scotland haven’t won in this competition since 2002, that’s really saying something.
Bookmakers are cold, boring statisticians. They usually ignore the hysterical whims of the rest of us, which is why they’re so rich. So when they ignore a string of defeats from over 20 years ago, and when they hold their heads high and say that despite all this, a team can still win, we know something is going on.
Scotland hold a four-point lead over the hosts, the most obvious factor being the huge loss of experience Wells has experienced. The long-standing jitters have lingered over the famous Wales side, which have won multiple Grand Slams over the past two decades, with several senior players reaching triple figures. This time a year ago, 10 players in their Six Nations squad had made more than 50 appearances. Now they are gone.
George North, who has 121 caps for his country, should return for England’s game at Twickenham next weekend, but the Wales starting line-up will be out in the first round. 413 times, more than half of which were shared between Gareth Davies, Jack Adams, Adam Beard and Aaron Wainwright. Seven of the teams have played a total of 62 times.
Twelve of those have been won by new captain Dafydd Jenkins, who at just 21 is Wales’ youngest captain since Gareth Edwards. His appointment has been brewing for some time, particularly since one of his predecessors, the great Alun Wyn Jones (170 caps for his country), announced his retirement last year. Warren Gatland has picked two co-captains for the autumn World Cup, but Jac Morgan and Dewi Lake are also currently out.
This might be called an absence from the Six Nations. Most attention has been focused on the absences of England, Ireland and France, but Wales have been hardest hit when measured by appearances. Or in the case of Stardust, who suffered horribly from the loss of Louis Rees-Zammit, who left just weeks ago to find his fortune in the NFL.
As a result, Wales go into such an important game with the least experienced Six Nations starting line-up since facing Italy in 2019, and this is a Grand Slam tournament. Gatland is quietly confident his new team will deliver results. North may be absent, but Wales has fielded a strong center combination of Nick Tompkins and Owen Watkin, both of whom have played more than 30 times for the team and are relatively experienced. The back row is light but tough and nimble, anchored by the admirable Wainwright.
But all eyes will be on Dan Biggar’s replacement and Liam Williams-Leigh Halfpenny’s backline. Sam Costelow made his debut at half-time in the Six Nations, while Cameron Winnet made his international debut. The Cardiff full-back has just turned 21 and has been attracting attention from spectators and defenders alike. Gatland is excited about his potential and he may well be right. Even a halfpenny has to start somewhere.
All of this may overlook Scotland’s situation. Their starting lineup played just 104 games, with most of them forwards. From 11 to 15 years old, they actually have less experience than the hosts (44 games played).
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Amid the wails of absences, Scotland are filling a huge hole of their own at fullback, a position that once occupied Stewart Hogg. And then there’s Blair Kinghorn. Opposite, Welsh rookie Wynette will be paired with Kyle Rowe, the only player featured in the 2022 tour of Argentina. He has Sevens experience and will likely be as quick as Wynette, even though he is five years older than Wynette. He takes over from Kinghorn, who will be suffering from the loss of the first two rounds due to injury.
Halfway through the flight, however, we notice the most obvious difference in experience. The tension between Finn Russell and Gregor Townsend appears to have calmed down as the manager has handed the captaincy to the mercurial playmaker. Russell is in his mid-30s and has become a father, and with all those classic milestones behind him, the mercurial playmaker should mature.
If Scotland are to prove themselves worthy of the bookmakers’ trust, let alone the weight of Cardiff’s history, they will need a definitive No. 10. Russell was never callous and boring. He may have a chance to learn from statistics.
