Rwanda sitting on top of its World Cup qualification group may be an unusual sight, but if the team can defeat Nigeria on March 21 in Kigali, there will be a real prospect of something even rarer — an appearance on football’s biggest stage, the World Cup.
The Super Eagles have collected just three points from the first four games in the group, while Rwanda will go seven clear if they can take a victory.
Despite the current placing, it won’t be easy for the hosts — ranked 124 in the world, 80 places below their opponents. Nigeria have six World Cup appearances compared to none for Rwanda, and have won the Africa Cup of Nations three times while Rwanda have made just one appearance in the tournament. Nigeria also have a population of 230 million, compared with 13 million.
“It’s not about size or population but what you do with what you have, and Rwanda do that well,” Stephen Constantine, head coach of Rwanda from 2014-15, told DW.
Rwanda have few famous players in Europe, and there were fewer expectations when World Cup qualification started in 2023. However, a 2-0 win over South Africa in November of that year made headlines. The most recent game came last June with a 1-0 win in Lesotho.
“I think Rwanda are underestimated to a large degree but there’s talent in Rwanda, lots of talent,” said Constantine. “That is what happens when you give players time and opportunity to develop.”
European clubs work to develop young talent
Big European clubs are also involved after signing high-profile partnerships with Visit Rwanda, aimed at promoting the country overseas — deals that have not been without their share of controversy.
The United Nations and United States believe Rwanda supports the M23 rebels who have fought recently to take over key cities and mineral-rich swathes of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.
Still, the European clubs have been working to help develop young footballers in Rwanda.
Paris Saint-Germain opened an academy in the southern city of Huye in 2021. Bayern Munich soon followed.
“Yes, we take money from Rwanda, but we also do something for it; by being open about it, by sending coaches there, by building a youth academy together, and so on,” Bayern CEO Jan-Christian Dreesen told DW in 2023.
Arsenal of the English Premier League have also held coaching workshops in Rwanda.
“You need the right coach education, as if you don’t develop the coaches, how do you develop the players?” Constantine asked.
“If you do things in the right way, it doesn’t matter if you are 1 million or 10 million.”
Rwanda’s government invests in sport
A renovated stadium in Kigali is the most visible product of public investment, with much of the focus going on international deals aimed at improving the country’s global standing.
“As well as the brilliant new stadium in Kigali, a 45,000-seater, Rwanda’s sporting investments have been very much outwardly focused,” Alasdair Howorth, a journalist covering African football, told DW.
Rwanda and its president, Paul Kagame, who has been in office since 2000, have had discussions aimed at becoming the first African country to host a Formula 1 Grand Prix since South Africa in 1993. In September, Rwanda is slated to become the first from the continent to stage cycling’s 2025 UCI Road World Championship.
“You don’t want government interference at any level but the government in Rwanda have continued to promote the sport and try to develop and make things happen,” said Constantine.
Critics maintain Rwanda is engaged in “sportwashing”, putting on major sporting events to build up an image tarnished by human rights abuses.
Nigeria’s ‘chances for the World Cup are difficult’
While Rwanda are in uncharted waters, Nigeria are also in an unfamiliar situation. No wins from their first four games means that the Super Eagles can’t afford to lose in Kigali, or missing a second successive World Cup will become a real prospect.
“Our chances for the World Cup are difficult as we lost some games in the first round,” Nigeria captain William Troost-Ekong told DW.
“However, in the next six games we have enough quality to get the results for us to make sure we are going to be there in 2026.”
Nigeria appointed former Mali boss Eric Chelle as head coach in January.
“As a captain, it is my responsibility to try and help him and make sure we can get results straight away,” said Troost-Ekong. After appearing in six of the previous seven World Cups and making the knockout stages twice, failing to qualify for Qatar 2022 was a bitter blow. The defender blamed it on the playoff system.
“I did not think it was 100% fair, we won our group but against Ghana, we didn’t qualify because of an away goal. Now at 31, I will be very, very happy for us to play at the World Cup in America so this is the main target for us now.”
Key coaching change for Rwanda
The fact that Rwanda recently parted ways with their German coach, Torsten Splitter, may be good news for Nigeria.
“A huge amount of the success was down to Spittler,” Howorth said. “They were in a terrible run of form until he took over in 2023 and turned things around.”
It remains to be seen how Rwanda will fare under Splitter’s replacement, Adel Amrouche of Algeria. The smart money is on the Super Eagles, but Howorth knows that nothing can be taken for granted.
“A Rwandan win is unlikely but there is huge pressure on Nigeria as they can’t afford to lose. It should be a great occasion.”
Edited by: Chuck Penfold
