Russia 'bogged down' in Ukraine, suffering net territorial losses for first the time since 2023

Angela Diffley is pleased to welcome Peter Zalmayev, director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative. He offers a forceful assessment of the evolving dynamics of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Rejecting narratives of Russian momentum, he argues that Moscow’s intensified bombardment of Kyiv reflects mounting pressure on President Vladimir Putin, whose military campaign has become increasingly “bogged down” and politically costly. While acknowledging the devastating impact on Ukrainian civilians, he contends that Russia’s battlefield difficulties, growing casualties, and declining territorial gains have created pressure on the Kremlin to project power through spectacular strikes on urban centers. As Moscow faces AI-enhanced drone warfare to systematic strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and military logistics, Putin must demonstrate to his “jingoistic militaristic base” that “Russia is not impotent. Russia can strike back.”