IIf this year’s Six Nations follows recent patterns, it’s expected to end with another Grand Slam. This will be the third title in a row, with history showing us that every championship since the World Cup – barring the COVID-affected event in 2020 – has ended in a sweep.
It’s interesting because when the World Cup cycle starts with the Six Nations, every team is essentially starting from scratch. France and Ireland were two teams that performed well last year, both teams were very consistent and looking to adjust, maintain and sustain ahead of the World Cup. It’s a similar story in Scotland, but England and Wales are both trying to catch up, having recently appointed Steve Borthwick and Warren Gatland respectively. Italy is also on the rise.
But you can’t say that about this championship. Everyone comes to the starting line together, and while Italy may only have one new coach, Gonzalo Quesada, the fact that all five teams have new captains reflects the feeling of change.
The reason for this is that a large group of players who have become synonymous with the Six Nations in recent years will not be participating. Whether it’s the retirements of Alun Wyn Jones, Dan Biggar and Johnny Sexton, Owen Farrell’s decision to sit out the tournament, or Antoine Dupont pursuing his Olympic dream with the France Sevens national team , or Louis Rees-Zammit suddenly turned to American football, and a large number of stars disappeared.
On the one hand, it’s a shame, but on the other hand, it’s an opportunity for the next wave and next generation of players who are trying to lead the team forward. I also believe the Six Nations are strong enough to cope with such an absent roster. The history of the rivalry and competition involved means it will not be affected.
The hardest thing for every team is finding the balance between building for the future and getting results here and now at the start of the World Cup cycle. Because quite simply, Six Nations is not a development tool. Summer tours or autumn internationals give coaches a greater emphasis on development, but the demand for results is never as great as in the Six Nations.
This begs the question of whether there will be any significant changes in style. I don’t think there will be a fundamental change in the coaches’ ideologies, but a change in personnel will inevitably lead to a different approach. In England’s case, Farrell is out, so if Marcus Smith is selected as a scrum-half, the game plan will change because they are completely different players.
The extent to which Borthwick leans into the current player form at Harlequin and Northampton will determine how well he develops for England. It’s often the case that when players come into training camp with a spring in their step because their club is going well domestically or in Europe, the move to international level is that much easier. England have a new look, with Jamie George taking over as captain, which is an excellent appointment. There’s not a single person in the game who isn’t happy for Jamie. He was so well-liked, so respected, so personable. He’s honest in his assessment of England’s performances, good and bad, and is almost guaranteed to start every week.
England have a chance to build momentum in their first game against an Italy side who really need a win in this game. It feels like this every year, but with Georgia’s and especially Portugal’s performances at the World Cup still fresh in their minds, another winless title and another wooden spoon will lead to even louder calls for Italy to be replaced.
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Before England travel to Rome, all eyes will be on France’s blockbuster clash with Ireland on Friday night. Both sides were desperate to get another match together after their heartbreaking defeat in the World Cup quarter-finals, but both teams had lost players who had such an impact on the way they played. For France, everything goes through Dupont and Sexton is the brains behind Ireland’s game plan, but neither will be on the pitch in Marseille. Ireland traditionally start the fastest in the Six Nations – when you can pick 13 players from Leinster and put them in a green jersey, it makes it easier for them to get going. But having said that, France will host Ireland and England this year, so they have a fixture list.
Wells has a true green team. In many ways, the situation is similar to last year. Gatland chose to donate blood to many young people at the time, a situation he has been forced to face this year as they have been hit hard by injuries and retirements. Warren has a wealth of experience and will enjoy the challenge, however, the fact that things appear to have stabilized off the field this year will help him. They start against Scotland, who had a disappointing World Cup performance – after an extremely tough group draw – but I do believe their squad has improved on last year and will be a dangerous threat this time around.
