SEven after weeks of pursuing immortality, the Kansas City Chiefs remain undefeated. They’re off to a 6-0 start against teams like the Ravens, 49ers and Bengals. Defensively, they’re elite, packing a bunch of the best quarterbacks in the game into the mix. Two consecutive championships should There was a sense of out-of-control dominance, but something was off about KC’s offense.
Given his performance, Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL. This is not an opinion, but a statement of fact. But the Chiefs offense has been middling to start the season, and Mahomes is a middling quarterback statistically. The Chiefs offense has yet to score 30 points in a game despite facing just one defense ranked in the top 12 in EPA/game (a measure of a team’s efficiency from the bottom up).
In a normal year, hand Mahomes a schedule like that and you could turn in your MVP votes in October and hit the cocktail bar. Instead, the Chiefs quarterback is having the worst regular season of his career, and Lamar Jackson is the clear favorite to win the MVP for the second straight year. Mahomes, on the other hand, has a pass completion rate of 67%, but only has 6 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. His passer rating through seven weeks (82.5) is 20 points below his career average (102.5). If that wasn’t enough, Mahomes has thrown for less than 150 yards in more games this season than he has thrown for over 300 yards.
But those numbers don’t tell the story of Mahomes’ overall performance. There were still some moments of individual brilliance, with quarterbacks dragging a struggling offense over the line on tight plays. He continues to impact the game with his legs in an effort to avoid negative plays or keep the chains moving. However, as we approach the halfway point of the regular season, KC’s passing game has reached one of the lowest points of a quarterback’s career.
“I just think it’s not normal for what you’re seeing from us, not a lot of touchdown passes,” Mahomes said this week. “There were a lot of turnovers, especially mine. So, I think it just shows the versatility of our team. It’s not just about me. It’s not just about stats and light shows and stuff like that. It’s about kicking Team football.
At Mahomes’ best, he’s an offense in his own right: a crafty playmaker who will twist defenses, cut them open in the pocket, or extend plays to engineer downfield shots. But that version of Mahomes hasn’t emerged this season. Today, Mahomes plays with the savvy of an old man. On a per-possession basis, he switches roles. The swashbuckling Mahomes of old is right there, ready to explode when needed. But at just 29, Mahomes is now guiding a late Drew Brees in long stretches, getting the ball to the team’s bruising runners and methodically leading the Chiefs down the field. .
As Mahomes said, this is team football. But on Wednesday, the Chiefs traded veteran receiver DeAndre Hopkins, acknowledging that the passing game wasn’t going well and they needed to find a quick fix.
Mahomes is averaging the lowest yards in the league this season. He’s more susceptible to pressure than he has been in years past. For the first time in his career, he panicked (somewhat) about the pressure. Most troublingly, the highlight-reel shots have largely disappeared, while dumb decisions have crept into his game.
Patrick Mahomes 8 interceptions:
1- Bad throw
2- Not good
3- Incredible game (low throwing rate)
4- bad
5- bad
6-Bounce from WR
7- Tilt at LOS
8- WR falls after throwing the ball
Does he need to get better? Yes. Is it all on him? No. #chiefkingdom pic.twitter.com/fX0B7GKVex— Price Carter (@priceacarter) October 21, 2024
Six games is a small sample size, but the start of the season is in many ways a continuation of trends that started last year. The Chiefs have become a hyper-efficient offense that focuses on the running game and looks to Mahomes to play turnover-free football in a more rhythmic passing game. That style demands perfection from the quarterback — and Mahomes doesn’t always live up to his promise.
However, last season was supposed to be an anomaly. The miracle of KC’s second consecutive title is that they won the Super Bowl with an incomplete roster. Despite Mahomes under center, the team’s passing game often stalled during the regular season. Aside from Travis Kelce, the team’s receiver room is filled with players past and future, and the Chiefs are relying on rookie LaShie Rice to bring some energy to a lackluster position group. By the time the playoffs began, however, the offense was starting to click: The Chiefs’ running game was hammering the defensive front, Mahomes had chemistry with Rice, Kelce was at his best, and the quarterback was playing key Always wear a cloak. With a top-five defense and a stellar offensive line, the champagne flows.
This was meant to be a year’s worth of recipes, though. Early in Mahomes’ career, the Chiefs were a ruthless scoring machine who could chase championships without a defense. They won it all last season with a suffocating defense and a stumbling offense. This year, both should rise together.
The Chiefs addressed their weapons shortage this offseason by drafting receiver Xavier Worthy and signing Hollywood Brown in free agency. Both were acquired to bring some pop to the passing game and help expand the field vertically. The two will free up space, allowing Kelce, Rice and Skye Moore to run underneath and extend drives or create yardage after the catch. Pairing a refreshed passing game with a hot running game, the team can take the load off Mahomes and prepare for Dom Perignon.
But injuries derailed those plans. Brown is injured and is expected to miss the entire regular season. Rice suffered a knee injury in Week 2 and was placed on injured reserve, forcing the Chiefs to sign JuJu Smith-Schuster, who then suffered a hamstring injury against the Niners. That leaves the Chiefs with few options left, with only Kelce being a reliable target. Worthy showed promise as a rookie but wasn’t a reliable contributor. Moore, a 2022 second-round pick, has as many receptions as he has this season: zero. Rice ranks second on the team in sacks despite missing two games, while the team’s second-leading tight end, Noah Gray, ranks No. 2 in sacks despite playing only half of the offensive snaps. Four.
The receiver woes have forced the Chiefs to double down on their run-heavy offense, which adds to the pressure on Mahomes to be perfect. Here’s what’s troubling about this season: Mahomes continues to make ugly turnovers.
Mahomes is a walking firework. But his secret has always been that he rarely puts the ball in danger. He threw 12 picks his first season as a starter, but only threw 11 picks combined over the next two seasons. Last season, however, he threw a career-high 14 interceptions while his touchdown total fell to 27, a testament to a quarterback spending time with an ill-fitting receiving corps. The initial pain. However, he didn’t throw a single turnover-worthy turnover in the postseason. Throwing until the Super Bowl. The turnovers are back this season. He has thrown eight interceptions, putting him on pace for a career-worst interception total, and six of those eight have been clean, according to Pro Football Focus, and his turnover rate is a career-high. The highest in my career.
Not every interception is Mahomes’ fault. Some came through the tilted ball. Others have a great defensive performance to thank (others get paid too!). But given the shift in offensive focus, turnovers are more painful for the offense than they have been in years past.
It’s unlikely that Hopkins can solve the problem on his own. No one knows how much tread the 32-year-old has left on his tires, and he is no longer in peak form. But if the receivers can provide reliable coverage, it would be an upgrade from Mahomes’ work so far this season.
With the addition of Hopkins, the Chiefs can continue to get by with this iterative offense as long as Mahomes strengthens his ability to run the ball. A quality defense, a solid offensive line and a steady Mahomes are enough to make the Chiefs a contender, and a few big moments from the quarterback could push them over the top.
Mahomes is judged differently than others. The number in October no longer matters; it’s about adding a ring in January. The regular season was less about any screams of players struggling in decline and more about how quarterbacks adapted to their situations.
It’s a long season. It will be interesting to watch Mahomes emerge from the fog again.