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Novo Nordisk reported results for the first half of 2025 on Wednesday, days after issuing a profit warning that triggered a 23% single-day share price plunge — the steepest in its history.
The results were broadly in line with expectations. In the first six months of 2025, Novo Nordisk’s sales increased by 16% in Danish kroner and by 18% at constant exchange rates (CER) to DKK 154.9bn (€20.77bn).
US sales climbed 16% in kroner (17% at CER), boosted by accounting changes. This included a DKK 3bn (€402 million) provision in the second quarter linked to the US’ 340B drug discount scheme. International sales also rose 16% (19% at CER).
Sales in Diabetes and Obesity care, meanwhile, grew 16% to DKK 145.4bn (€19.49bn), driven by a 56% surge in obesity treatments to DKK 38.8 billion (€5.2bn). GLP-1 diabetes drugs rose 8%, and rare disease sales increased 14%.
Valuation slump
In July 2024, Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk briefly touched a €600bn valuation, becoming Europe’s most valuable company and even surpassing its country’s gross domestic product.
Just over a year later, its market capitalisation has collapsed to around €180bn, as cracks begin to emerge in the blockbuster narrative surrounding its weight-loss drugs.
Yet some Wall Street analysts argue the sell-off may have gone too far. At current levels, they suggest the company could be entering value territory, potentially offering a compelling buying opportunity.
Forecasts for the year ahead
Looking ahead, Novo Nordisk’s 2025 sales are expected to grow 8–14% at CER, with operating profit up 10–16%. Currency effects are seen trimming those gains by 3 and 5 percentage points respectively.
The lowered forecast reflects reduced demand for GLP-1 diabetes and weight-loss therapies due to alternative products from competitors — especially affecting Wegovy and Ozempic in the US and selected global markets.
Meanwhile, leadership changes at Novo Nordisk will take effect this Thursday. After Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen was ousted in May linked to the firm’s falling share price, Maziar Mike Doustdar will take over as CEO this week.
Analysts eye buying opportunity after historic sell-off
Goldman Sachs analyst James Quigley noted that the results were largely in line with the pre-release and exchange-rate pressures on operating profit were slightly less severe than initially feared.
However, the firm flagged the discontinuation of several pipeline assets. These are individually minor, but collectively raising some concern about long-term research and development momentum.
Quigley remained broadly optimistic on Novo Nordisk’s long-term potential growth: “At the current level, we believe the sell-off is disconnected from the long-term opportunity in the obesity market, particularly given the significant manufacturing infrastructure and investments Novo is making or has already made.”
Goldman Sachs acknowledged that uncertainties remain around the GLP-1 and obesity market, as well as Novo Nordisk’s pipeline strength, particularly in light of the eventual semaglutide patent expiry.
The firm said it would continue tracking key data points and developments closely.
Still, Quigley added that, following the sharp share price drop, the risk-reward balance had shifted favourably.
“On balance, we see more upside than downside risk and remain Buy-rated,” the note read, with a DKK 400 (€53.62) target price implying about 29% upside from current levels.
Market reaction
Novo Nordisk shares were trading 2% lower during European morning trading on Wednesday, eyeing their seventh negative day out of the last eight.
Shares are now down over 65% compared with a year ago.
