We’re already in the final four. The top-seeded Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers will try to fend off challenges from the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs and upstart Detroit Lions to advance to Super Bowl XVIII.
Jeff Howe breaks down division title matchup before game AthleticA projection model created by Austin Mock reveals each team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl.
AFC
No. 1 Baltimore Ravens vs. No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 3 p.m. ET
In the Ravens’ 34-10 victory over the Houston Texans, quarterback Lamar Jackson was the best player on the field, and when that happened, they were nearly unstoppable. The Ravens are 10-0 on the season, including Saturday when Jackson had a passer rating of over 90, and that doesn’t even take into account his rushing ability.
But that’s not all Jackson has to offer. Head coach John Harbaugh, offensive coordinator Todd Monken and defensive coordinator Mike McDonald performed well in the playoff opener. Monken’s adjustments worked well against the Texans’ aggressive blitzes, and McDonald accomplished the rare feat of stopping quarterback C.J. Stroud. It would be surprising at this point if McDonald didn’t get the head coaching job this cycle, and it’s not unthinkable to think the Ravens could lose both coordinators.
Patrick Mahomes has won the AFC Championship every season as a starter in the NFL 👑 pic.twitter.com/18EeNToCMC
— The Athlete (@TheAthletic) January 22, 2024
While this looks like the Ravens’ year, they now have to kill off the defending Super Bowl champions as the Chiefs continue their efforts to solidify their status as a modern-day dynasty. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is coming off his first career playoff win on the road and will do it again in his sixth straight AFC Championship Game appearance.
Not only that, but the Chiefs played their best game of the season by a sizable margin. The team’s defense held the game scoreless for three consecutive possessions to end the game, but this team has been consistent all season. What’s even more impressive is that Mahomes and his backers performed well in several key moments and made only one key mistake. If they play this well in Baltimore, the championship game should be a thriller.
Live Division Round Review @robertmays and @nate_tess https://t.co/kfMFmUyDIT
— NFL Sports (@TheAthleticNFL) January 22, 2024
near field communication
No. 1 San Francisco 49ers vs. No. 3 Detroit Lions, Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
This game will likely be decided on the field, and the Lions will need to step up defensively in that area. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who ranked last in rushing and yards per carry during the regular season, ran 15 times for 89 yards on Sunday in Detroit. It was a surprising performance against a Lions defense that ranked second in rushing yards and third in yards per carry.
The 49ers’ ground game needs no introduction, with superstar linebacker Christian McCaffrey being the front-runner for MVP for much of the season. If the Niners move the ball with McCaffrey, they could double the Buccaneers’ rushing numbers.
deeper
Dre Greenlaw isn’t going down, and thanks to him, the 49ers aren’t either
The Packers, on the other hand, rushed for 136 yards on 28 carries (4.9 yards per carry) in the regular season against the 14th-ranked 49ers defense. The Lions’ two-pronged offense of David Montgomery and Jameer Gibbs ranks fifth in yards and yards per carry.
Understandably, quarterbacks Brock Purdy and Jared Goff will get a lot of attention, but every offense’s identity is built on the ground. Purdy was outstanding against the Packers, but before his impressive game-winner, Goff was efficient in both playoff wins. When the offense goes as planned, both quarterbacks are difficult to defend, which is why the NFC Championship Game will likely be decided by the better team on the field.
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AFC
near field communication
deeper
Bills vs. Chiefs differences (and more than just Patrick Mahomes): Sandow’s No. 6 pick
(Photo of Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes: Cooper Neal/Getty Images)
