cincinnati tigers
Slow starts are familiar territory for Cincinnati. In Zac Taylor’s six seasons as coach, the Bengals have started 0-2 five times. But losing the first three games is a new situation, and now their odds of winning are slim. Since 1990, only four of the 162 teams that started the season 0-3 have made the playoffs.
If you take a positive view, the Bengals have looked flawed in all three games this season but are just a few games away from 3-0. On a negative note, they struggled offensively once again and bottomed out defensively for the first time since Joe Burrow came to town.
Through three weeks, the Bengals’ defense ranks 30th in the NFL per game, based on a bottom-up efficiency measure measured by the EPA. While that alone is enough to make the team restless, what’s even more disturbing are the numbers behind the scenes. Cincy held just 9.8 percent of its passes against Washington on Monday night. It’s not how often pass rushers approach Jayden Daniels, it’s how often defenders beat Personal blockers. In 10 years of recorded data, this is the worst pass-rushing performance on record.
Burrow and the offense offer hope. After a poor showing against the Patriots in Week 1, the offense is playing well — Burrow has thrown five touchdowns and zero interceptions. If this continues, the Bengals should be able to get back into the wild-card game. They have a favorable schedule over the next four weeks with games against the Panthers, Giants, Browns and Ravens that could put them closer to .500. But unless they can find some energy on the defensive line, they’ll be out of the playoff picture before Thanksgiving.
Panic level: 10/10
Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce got off to a slow start. There are many theories as to why. Does he podcast too much? Worried about his film career? Spending too much time with Tae? The most likely explanation is simple: He’s a 34-year-old tight end.
Playing tight end is brutal and hurtful. When a recession comes, it happens quickly. Last year there were warning signs of impending doom. In 2023, he started slow, got hot midway through the calendar, and then tanked again at the end of the regular season. Aside from a few big games against the Bills and Raiders, Kelce struggled through the Chiefs’ final nine regular-season games. But when the playoffs came around, he was back to his best.
This season will likely follow a similar trajectory. Although Kelce is aging, he still has the ability to be one of the most dynamic weapons in the league. He still has an indescribable connection with Patrick Mahomes, which could help Kansas City’s offense get out of trouble. His days of guaranteed first downs may be gone, but he’s still a big-player waiting to happen.
As the Chiefs work with a new group of receivers and look to young tight end Noah Gray to take some of the load off Kelce, his numbers will drop — with apologies to the fantasy crowd. But come playoff time, Mahomes will still be counting on Kelce to handle the inevitable downfalls and still have enough tread on his tires to be a difference-maker.
Panic level: 3/10
dallas cowboys
You have to hand it to Dallas, they find new, weird entertainment every season. If the playoff collapse wasn’t enough, the twist this season has taken is crazy: They’re allergic to stopping the run.
Nothing is more frustrating for a team than having the ball shoved down its throat over and over again. Through three weeks, the Cowboys’ run defense has been the worst in the league — and it’s not even close. They rank 32nd in EPA per game; they give up more fumbles than any team in the league; they have more tackles than anyone. There may not be a more shocking number to start the season than Dallas’ 6.18 scoring average. Forklift depth. This is not a typo. Cowboys are throwing in the towel six yards Before the defender greets the ball carrier.
Stopping running takes a lot of work. But it boils down to three most important principles: talent, skill and toughness. The Cowboys are lacking in all three areas — and lacking at all three levels of defense. Rewatch their games against the Ravens or Saints and you’ll see the defense being pushed back, linebackers scrambling, and descending safeties lost in the carnage in front of them. It’s jarring and at times amateurish. So far, adjustments to programs and personnel have not alleviated the problem.
“We have to pay attention to the details,” defensive back Jordan Lewis said Monday. “I mean, at the end of the day, it’s us stopping people. That’s it. Details have been lacking, but the Cowboys just lack bodies up front. Former first-round pick Mads Smith has struggled to keep up with the speed of the NFL at defensive tackle, They rotated a bunch of grizzled veterans around him, their best days long behind them.
Of all the issues that contributed to the Cowboys’ poor start to the season, none were more inconsistent than their inability to stop games. Finding a mid-season solution will be a challenge.
Panic level: 8/10
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jacksonville jaguars
When the head coach talks about overhauling his entire offense three weeks into the season, you know things have reached a five-alarm level. “Changes have to be made, whether it’s game design, personnel, everything,” Doug Pederson said after Monday night’s 47-10 loss to the Bills.
Over the past 10 quarters, Jacksonville has scored just 23 points and converted just 18 percent of its third-down possessions. But aside from the results, Jacksonville’s offense had zero identity — no organizing principles. They behave like a student who crammed for an exam the night before. Everything looks sloppy. Nothing flows. This is an offense that lacks ideas, paired with quarterback Trevor Lawrence who still misses easy opportunities when they arrive.
If we’re going to place blame, a lot of it should be placed on the inadequacies of the Jaguars’ front office and coaching staff, which left the offense looking unprepared. But Lawrence also has his faults. Despite his physical gifts, he still makes ugly, almost incomprehensible decisions. On any given week, he could deliver mind-numbing turnovers just like he was the pitcher that day. At some point, inconsistency isn’t a maddening habit that’s holding you back from reaching your full potential. This is you.
The way the schedule goes, Pederson could be out of a job by the time the Jaguars return from London in October.
Panic level: 9/10
Caleb Williams
After clinching the offseason title, the Bears had a frustrating start to the actual season. Anticipated violations of throwing fireworks and firecrackers have already occurred. Chicago, meanwhile, was forced to watch as Jayden Daniels dominated the secondary and Justin Fields led the Steelers to a 3-0 record.
But any sense of panic should be suppressed. Caleb Williams may have arrived in Chicago with a ton of hype, entering one of the best quarterback draft picks in a long time. The Bears surrounded their young quarterback with a flashy receiving corps. They invested heavily in the offensive line. On the other side of the ball, they’ve restored much of the defense that finished among the top five at the end of last season. But initial problems are to be expected.
Early returns are scattered. Williams made the wrong decision. Sometimes the game moves too fast for him. His accuracy has been hit or miss, and he’s been eager to get out of the way to try and create. But even amid the early struggles, there were flashes of the player Williams hopes to become. His offensive line has been a sieve so far, forcing him to indulge his free agency habits. If things tighten up a bit, then Williams will be able to distribute the ball more effectively.
The optimism of early August may have faded, and other players on the roster may be farther away from playoff contention than expected. But as far as Williams is concerned, Chicago should listen to its former foe.
Panic level: 2/10
