oxygenOn April 25, the 89th annual NFL Draft will kick off in Detroit, Michigan. As owners, general managers, coaches and scouts take a closer look at the top prospects preparing to make the jump from college to the pros, four quarterbacks are likely to be selected in the top 10 for the third time in history. In fact, for the first time ever, the first four picks could all be quarterbacks.
This is partly due to the talent at the most important positions in gaming this year. Caleb Williams, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner out of USC, is considered a generational prospect with skills that rival those of Patrick Mahomes. He will almost certainly be selected No. 1 overall by the Chicago Bears.
And Jayden Daniels, who won the Heisman Trophy in the 2023 season. The 23-year-old played five years at the collegiate level, first at Arizona State and then three seasons at LSU. Last year, he became one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks to declare for the draft since two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, throwing for 40 touchdowns and rushing for 10 more.
Derek Meyer’s second season as UNC’s starter wasn’t as good as the year before, when he broke the school’s passing yardage record and tied the Tar Heels’ touchdown record. But his size, arm talent and athleticism put him on par with Josh Allen. JJ McCarthy, expected to be the fourth quarterback drafted, lacks the statistical resume of the other three but led Michigan to a national championship last season. It’s also possible that one or both of projected second-round picks Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr will be selected within the first 32 picks.
Yet for all the talent, the clamor for quarterbacks in this year’s draft is largely due to teams’ rare desire to land a franchise star at the position.
The Bears made that clear when they traded last season’s starter and the 11th overall pick three years ago, Justin Fields, to the Pittsburgh Steelers in exchange for a 2025 sixth-round pick. They plan to draft a quarterback with the first overall pick. The Washington Commanders, who selected No. 2, made a similar move when they traded last season’s starter, Sam Howell, to the Seattle Seahawks. And, the New England Patriots are expected to have 2021 No. 15 pick Mac Jones after he failed to ignite the post-Tom Brady era in Foxborough and was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the offseason. Select another quarterback with the third pick.
In addition to the teams with the top three picks, there are a number of quarterback-needy teams ready to offer future draft capital to trade into the top five. The Arizona Cardinals have the fourth overall pick, but with Kyler Murray already on their roster, they don’t need a quarterback. The same goes for the Los Angeles Chargers, who are ranked fifth and have one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Justin Herbert.
The Minnesota Vikings lost Kirk Cousins to the Atlanta Falcons in free agency, and they were the top pick on this team. Do Need a quarterback though. Last month, they added the Houston Texans’ 23rd overall pick to their own No. 11 pick, seemingly signaling their intention to compile an attractive package of picks to trade up. Combining those two picks with a future first- or second-round pick might be enough to convince the Cardinals, Chargers or even the Patriots to make a trade.
But there’s also the New York Giants, who could replace the injury-prone Daniel Jones at the end of next season. They own the sixth overall pick and face the conundrum of whether to use their first-round pick to address another area of great need — like wide receiver, a talent-rich position in the 2024 draft — or trade up to acquire a top-four pick. Split guard, or stay put and hope someone falls into their clutches.
The Denver Broncos, who absorbed the largest dead cap hit in NFL history last month by releasing Russell Wilson, are also in the market for a new quarterback, though that consideration may be on the cards after trading Zach Wilson on Monday Variety. The low-ranked Las Vegas Raiders are another team hungry for a quarterback, although they signed journeyman edge starter Gardner Minshew in free agency.
Like most sports, the NFL is a league where chasing teams try to emulate the best practices of recent winners. When it comes to drafting quarterbacks, two philosophies prevail — either select the most talented players by investing draft capital and then build around them to find the next Mahomes; or put together a potent offense. List linebackers and pass catchers, then find a capable game manager on a cheap rookie contract to further tie them together in the draft. This cheaper contract makes it possible to move multiple stars at other positions, much like Brock Purdy did for the San Francisco 49ers.
But Mahomes and Purdy are not imperfect examples of the methodology they represent. Mahomes was not the No. 1 pick: He was selected with the 10th overall pick in the 2017 draft. The Chiefs acquired him through a trade, which means he joined a strong team that had a record of 12 wins and 4 losses last season. He was able to sit out most of his rookie season, learn from veteran Alex Smith, then step into an offense that included Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce and was dominated by a great offense Supervised by one of the brains, Andy Reid.
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The Niners drafted quarterback talent in 2021 when they traded three first-round picks to select Trey Lance with the third overall pick. Purdy, the final pick in the 2022 draft, was never supposed to be a starter — it wasn’t until Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo were sidelined with injuries that he got his chance.
Chicago is well-positioned to have the best of both worlds. They were able to sign Williams because they had the No. 1 pick in last year’s trade with the Carolina Panthers, who finished the 2023 season with the NFL’s worst record. The Bears add depth and experience to the receiving corps, which already includes DJ Moore and free agent signing six-time Pro Bowler Keenan Allen. They also have the ninth pick, with which they could further bolster their pass-catching corps or improve another department.
But there are still no guarantees when it comes to drafting a quarterback. There is a similar level of hype surrounding the 2021 draft class, with three quarterbacks selected in the top 3 picks and five others in the top 15.
Four of those five — Lance, Fields, Jones and Wilson — have already been traded by the teams that selected them. That year’s No. 1 pick, Trevor Lawrence, was considered the best quarterback prospect of the decade, but even he didn’t live up to the lofty expectations the Jaguars had when they drafted him.
This year’s draft will provide a better supply of talent at quarterback than most classes, but whether that supply can meet the high demand for franchise stars is far from certain.
