The Kansas City Chiefs enter the Super Bowl as underdogs for the second straight season. They defeated the favored Philadelphia Eagles last season and will try to defeat the favored San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
Will people be upset if Kansas City pulls this off? The Chiefs have the ultimate advantage in quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is healthier this season than he was last season and has performed well for much of the postseason.
Every year around this time, I ask a group of NFL coaches which team they would pick to win the Super Bowl and why. Our group performed pretty well last season and the first coach correctly picked the Chiefs to win by three points.
Four coaches weigh in on their predictions for this year. We spoke with a defensive coach to find out what’s bothering 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy and whether the Chiefs are well-prepared to exploit this particular vulnerability.
deeper
2024 Super Bowl betting guide: Expert picks, props, analysis and all the information you need
defensive coach
The Fighting Swifts have a better defense than the Niners right now, and that could be the difference. San Francisco has to play better defensively to win. The 49ers are still dangerous and violent, but they are giving up more yards and plays. I think they’re going to play well, but if you ask my gut, I still think Kansas City is going to be successful.
Impacting Brock Purdy is one of the biggest keys to this game. The teams that give Purdy trouble are the ones that can influence him. Cleveland can do this. Detroit can’t influence him that way, but the Chiefs can. They did a really good job of raising their hands. This is a big deal for Bullock. They work well to impact not only longer casts, but faster casts at all different launch angles.
Purdy’s strength lies in how strong his lower body is. This quote from George Kittle is really funny, he said Purdy looked like one of those little water dragons that run across the water. This is exactly what Purdy looked like. His legs are very powerful. But when you can push the pocket onto his front foot, he’s going to struggle. It’s going to be tough to get there because they throw the ball so fast at times, but I think the Chiefs have the ability to do it.
When one reaches Purdy’s front foot, the ball drags, drags or drifts.Just like the one he threw Into the belly of the Packers. He couldn’t fully twist his hips and his hips floated. Influencing Bodie in this way was easier said than done. The 49ers know what they’re doing, Purdy is really good and Kyle is good at calling the ball, but I think the Chiefs can do it at times with four rushers.
(Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo) is going to press and play his two-high combo in coverage. It’s hard to play a combination defense when the 49ers have everyone out. They have position players. (Christian) McCaffrey is going to be a receiver, Deebo (Samuel) is going to be in the backfield, 44 (Kyle Juszczyk) is going to be everywhere. When you play them in a split safety defense where they can see it and get away from it, the matchup can be really good.
When the Chiefs get into space, they don’t always do a great job figuring it out. Steve did a great job not letting that happen this year. In other years, you can isolate their players. All of Kyle’s players are 6-1, 215, or 6-1, and can run with big hands and fury after contact. If they can find a way around the D-line and keep these guys going, that will be their advantage.
I also think San Francisco will attack the edge in the run game, much like Kyle did in Atlanta against New England in the Super Bowl. If you can get around Kansas City’s interior and force someone other than Justin Reid to take tackle, you can do something. But you have to get around their big boss. I think Kyle will find a way to do it, but I have more faith in the Chiefs.
deeper
Inside 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl game: What to watch when the Niners run the ball
No. 1 Defensive Coordinator
This is going to be a very interesting game because the Spags defense is so good and I think that’s going to cause problems. They will be able to hunt down Brock Purdy. Sparks would come up with some good plan that would at least make Bodie think and disrupt his rhythm.
The 49ers’ entire team is built on a lead mentality. When they’re ahead, they pounce, they get better, they’re more athletic, their talent shines. Things are usually different when they play from behind. Against Detroit, they came back. I’ll give them credit, but Detroit totally screwed up. What happened is unrepeatable.
All you have to do against the 49ers is play them early. I would catch the ball and try to score. Green Bay did it. I know it’s only 7-0 early and it doesn’t matter, but if you score early you’re not answering them.
Mahomes makes the right plays when needed. He’s been protecting the ball, which he didn’t do as much in the first half of the season. People have to respect Lahi Rice now. He has evolved. MVS (Marquez Valdes-Scantling) has become more consistent.
The 49ers defense has proven throughout the playoffs that they can move the ball to them. They don’t have many answers. You hit their weak spots, don’t get their rushers going, they don’t get takeaways, and you’re fine. The coverage system is not complicated. They had a good corner and a safety who performed really well.
When Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are on the field, they’re going to find those weaknesses. Andy was able to pick up 5 yards from Travis Kelce on a catch-and-run play. It’s hard to go against Reid and Mahomes.
deeper
What makes the pairing of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes as special as any great coaching and quarterback pairing?
Defensive Coordinator No. 2
The better team may be San Francisco, but the Eagles were probably a better team last year thanks to Patrick Mahomes.
For San Francisco, it was mostly game flow. That’s not to say Brock Purdy can’t come from behind. I didn’t mean to say this. But I think they’re a team that has a better chance of winning in games, whereas the Chiefs are probably a little better at finding a way to win in any type of game.
That’s what happened when these teams played in 2019. Kansas City trailed by two, then suddenly went up two in the fourth quarter. This is unbelievable.
San Francisco came back and beat Green Bay and Detroit, but they were much better than those teams, especially Detroit. In my opinion, Detroit is not a team that can compare to San Francisco. Detroit’s inability to close out this game shows how good this team is in San Francisco.
I could see San Francisco’s defense not being dominant against the Chiefs. I don’t know if they’re as dominant as DeMeco Reigns and Robert Saleh. It feels like they’re not all there is. Deep down, I’m talking about the Chief.
deeper
Inside 49ers-Chiefs Super Bowl game: What to watch when KC has the ball
The 49ers offense is difficult to defend because they have skilled players who can generate yards after the catch and their quarterback can quickly read the defense and get the ball to the designated spot with accuracy. Their drop-down game is very timing-oriented, while Kansas City is not.
Mahomes’ ability to play on schedule or off schedule may be the difference. The great thing about Mahomes is that he’s a great quarterback off the field who doesn’t need to play off the field to be great. I always felt like Russell Wilson was like that. When everyone says he’s great, I think as a high-level quarterback, you still have to be able to throw the ball on time. Mahomes can do that.
Purdy’s unscheduled performance was fine because he was a bit crafty. He just doesn’t have that much down time to play. Mahomes is an elite player in his downtime, and I think that’s Kansas City’s strength.
offensive coach
Surprisingly, Kansas City’s (Isiah) Pacheco ran the ball well and they were more willing to run the ball, which I think really took some of the pressure off Mahomes. This helps their defense. This could make them a more complete team.
San Francisco trailed by 280 yards in the first half against Detroit. Maybe they surprised Detroit, but they still haven’t figured out how to slow down the outside running game. Pacheco is a killer, and if you keep him on the edge, I think he’ll be good, even though he’s more of an interior runner.
Detroit just kept running both ends and throwing the ball, while the 49ers’ secondary was slow to provide support. I’m sure San Francisco will make adjustments to the master throw game. They just need to find someone to provide faster support. It’s not a major adjustment, but they may be reluctant to do it because of Mahomes.
I love Kansas City. I want to like San Francisco, but I think the quarterback matchup is pretty big in these games and there’s a big gap between these guys.
Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, those two are good enough to overcome that, but I don’t think that’s the case in this game.
final thoughts
If the 49ers win, people associated with their team will surely claim that no one gave them a chance. Although the oddsmakers favor the 49ers, it won’t be a huge stretch as many inside and outside the game are picking the Chiefs. I beat Kansas City 24-20 in our staff draft. This isn’t so much about the 49ers’ draft as it is the fear of drafting Mahomes. I was on his side every week in the playoffs. Why stop now?
deeper
With recent Super Bowl run, Chiefs’ future dynasty echoes ‘Patriot Way’
(Top photo of Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy: Patrick Smith, Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
