Three or four?
Precedent is outdated. Gareth Southgate has always been a cautious manager, one who sets out his blueprint and sticks to it – and then there’s this Championship. He made cuts and changes after failing to find a partner for Declan Rice in midfield; this, combined with a lack of left-footed defenders, led to a switch to a back three against Switzerland. Luke Shaw was fit enough to play the final 12 minutes of that game as well as extra time, so he might be able to start and provide natural width on the left. Even if he does, it seems likely that the back three will be retained given England’s more fluid performance in the first half of the quarter-final. This means Kieran Trippier at right-back, Bukayo Saka in the forward line, and Phil Foden likely to be absent; or, more likely, Yes, Saka remains at full-back while Trippier withdraws. Trippier is one of England’s most vocal playmakers, though, and without Harry Maguire or Jordan Henderson, that may be a quality Southgate doesn’t want to lose.
Dumfries Agreement
England’s problems down the left intersect with one of the most striking aspects of Holland’s game: the way Denzel Dumfries pushes forward from right-back to create an attacking overload. Koeman’s team, who lost possession of the ball, played a back four formation, but after taking possession of the ball, Dumfries stepped forward and the rest of the defenders took turns forming a back three formation to defend Tijani Reynders and Tijani Reynders in a familiar ladder formation. Jedi Schouten fights back. This means that whoever starts on the right wing will drop inside to create a 3-2-4-1 formation. To be fair, Harvey Simmons looked more willing to do so than Steven Bergwijn, who exited at halftime in both elimination rounds, once for Don Yael Mullen, once for Walter Weghorst. This could be an argument for England to stick with a back three, allowing the left wing-back, be it Shaw or Trippier, to engage Dumfries as much as possible, with Jude Bellingham as the left of the two inside forwards trying to Contact Dumfries.
Gapu gambling
Dumfries provides width on one end and Cody Gakpo on the other. It is worth noting how often the two combine, one crosses and the other reaches the back post, which is why the quarter-final victory against Turkey was won, even if it was Mert Mardur who ended up passing the ball Pass the goal. But the Dutch team also hopes to attack Gakpo through long passes as early as possible, or have Simmons push him behind the defense. Against Romania, it was Simmons’ quick pass in transition that allowed Gakpo to burst past the isolated right-back Andre Ratiu and open the scoring in the round of 16.
Gakpo will tend to stay high to provide this opportunity, but there is a risk that assuming Saka is used as England’s right-wing back, this could give Saka the opportunity to compete with Dutch left-back Nathan Ake. Kyle Walker’s recovery speed could be crucial against Gakpo.
Midfield possibilities
There was a feeling that the Netherlands were improving as the game wore on, but perhaps that was natural given their preparation had been hampered by injuries. With Teun Koopmeiners and Mats Wieffer already unavailable, Frenkie de Jong has been ruled out a week before the Euros – a huge disadvantage for England considering he guided the Netherlands to victory in the UEFA Nations League semi-finals five years ago. Said it would be relieved. Koeman’s initial solution was to pair PSV’s Joey Wellman with Schouten. However, they were pulled wide by the Austrian side, so much so that Wellmann left the game in tears before half-time.
Schouten is a ball-carrier, a greaser of possession – something he has yet to be deprived of in the Championship – rather than someone who can actually hurt opponents, so he needs someone sharper to play alongside. Koeman found him in Reynders, who looked a bit unwieldy in the group stages but has blossomed into a vital figure after being drawn deeper, with Simmons taking over as his No.10 Role. He is adept at dribbling the ball – only Aurelian Chameni and Toni Kroos have gone further with the ball in this tournament – and is not intimidated by the opposition’s press. But Turkey showed how to overwhelm the Dutch double pivot in the quarter-finals before running out of steam in the second half. A compact formation could overcome this problem, or Akai may have to move into midfield – as Switzerland’s outside center back did in the second half of the quarter-final. However, this could create opportunities for Saka and Foden.
Kane problem
Harry Kane has been far from his best in this tournament and is apparently still battling a back injury that affected him at the end of the Bundesliga season. Will Ollie Watkins start with his natural tendency to pull left to try and drag De Vrij into that space behind Dumfries? Is there any reason to root for Ivan Tony, given his aggressiveness and imagination? It’s almost certain that Kane will still be him, after all, he has scored twice in his last four games and, despite his apparent detachment, has the fifth-highest number of shots in the Championship. At least Southgate was finally prepared to take him off against Switzerland to unleash Toni’s unpredictable talent.
