The Sweet 16 lineup is set — mostly what we expected, but with a few twists.
The left side of the bracket (Albany 1 and Portland 4 regions) includes all No. 1 through 4 seeds, while the lower seeds on the right side (Albany 2 and Portland 3 regions) include the No. 5 and No. 7 seeds.
Will there be more chaos in the region? Can the top seed continue to thrive? We’re here to break down the game and provide predictions.
(All times Eastern)
Friday
Albany 1 | 2:30 PM | ESPN
The matchup between the Fighting Irish and Beavers is a game of contrasting styles. Fueled by star freshman guard Hannah Hidalgo and an aggressive zone defense, Notre Dame likes to push the tempo and score in transition. The Irish rank in the 90th percentile in speed and second nationally in fast-break scoring rate, according to CBB Analytics. Hidalgo is averaging 7.5 fast break points per game this season. It’s all a far cry from Oregon State’s boom this year. By comparison, the Beavers rank in the 19th percentile at pace and average just 5.4 points per game. Offensively, they were efficient around the rim and beyond the arc. The pairing of junior guard Talia von Olhoffen and sophomore forward Regan Beals has been particularly difficult to stop.
How the Beavers contain Hidalgo and defender Sonia Citron will also be crucial, especially considering the Irish typically only use six players in a game. The team that decides the flow of the game is likely to have the advantage on Friday. But even when the game slowed down to OSU’s liking, Notre Dame proved it could make plays in the half. The Irish are especially good at finishing in late offensive opportunities. Hidalgo may be a freshman, but she will stake her claim as the most impactful player on the court.
Pick: Our Lady
— Ben Pickman
Albany 1 | 5 p.m. | ESPN
The Hoosiers faced off against Oklahoma State on Monday night in a game that featured 21 lead changes and was tied at 10 down the stretch. In the end, Indians forward Mackenzie Holmes performed well and scored a game-high 29 points. Guard Sydney Parrish added 17 points as the Indians advanced to the Sweet 16 for the third time in the past four seasons.
Things only get more difficult from here, though. The Hoosiers will take on undefeated South Carolina, which just beat North Carolina by nearly 50 points and remains the favorite. How will the Indians stop star center Camila Cardoso? IU’s tallest player, Arielle Wisne, is still two inches shorter than 6-foot-7 Kamilla Cardoso and averages just 1.8 minutes per game. The Indians’ tallest starters, Holmes and Yarden Garzon, are both 6-foot-3. IU also ranks 316th nationally in 3-point defense, which becomes a problem when the Gamecocks’ other end, Te-Hina Paopao, shoots 46.7 percent from 3-point range.
Pick: South Carolina
— Grace Raynor
Don’t blink when you’re around these two! ! 👀 @tehinapaopa0 @camilasilva pic.twitter.com/4P331tTcwX
— South Carolina Women’s Basketball (@GamecockWBB) March 24, 2024
No. 3 North Carolina State University vs. No. 2 Stanford University
Portland 4 | 7:30 PM | ESPN
The Wolfpack committed a season-low four turnovers in North Carolina State’s 79-72 victory over sixth-seeded Tennessee. Guards Saniya Rivers, Aziaha James and Zoe Brooks performed well as they controlled the tempo of the game and scored a combined 58 points. point. The Cardinals’ first priority was to slow down the North Carolina guard. Like past Stanford teams, this year’s team is well thought out on both ends of the floor. The Cardinal averaged just 5.3 steals per game and scored just 6.5 points in transition. Instead, they relied on an efficient half-court offense anchored by Cameron Brink and Kiki Iriafen to finish the game.
In the Sweet 16, the Wolfpack struggled to guard Tennessee’s Rickea Jackson, allowing the likely WNBA lottery pick to score 33 points and grab 10 rebounds. Limiting Ilyafen, who scored a career-high 41 points, will be their next task, and it’s a difficult task. Expect a low turnover game in which possession will be at a premium. If Stanford can limit NC State’s wings, it should have a good chance of advancing to its fourth consecutive Elite Eight.
Pick:Stanford University
— Pickman
Portland 4 | 10 p.m. | ESPN
The Bulldogs posted a 7-2 record against seven tournament teams during the regular season, including an 18-point win over Stanford in December. Gonzaga proved it can stand the test against fifth-seeded Utah, beating fifth-seeded Utah 77-66 in the second round to advance to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2015.
The Bulldogs are tied for second in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 39.8. They beat Utah State on 12-for-22 shooting. Gonzaga has five players averaging double figures, led by Yvonne Ejim who scored 20 points. The Zags may also have an advantage: The game in Portland is just six hours away from campus, which means Bulldogs fans will show up in droves.
Post match scene 🥹 pic.twitter.com/HaDL7rOoHQ
— Gonzaga Women’s Basketball (@ZagWBB) March 26, 2024
But none of that was enough to stop Texas, whose mettle was tested early in the season after Rory Harmon suffered a season-ending knee injury. Led by rookie star Madison Booker (16.8 points, 5.1 assists per game), the Longhorns’ offense is dominant, averaging 112.5 points per 100 possessions, according to HerHoopStats. Expect an interesting battle between teams that can score — both are averaging 81.2 points per game. Junior Aaliyah Moore had a double-double against Alabama. According to HerHoopsStats, Texas ranks fifth among tournament teams in rebounding with an average of 40 rebounds per game and ranks second in offensive rebounding percentage at 42.2 percent.
Pick:Texas
— Shannon Ryan
Saturday
No. 3 LSU vs. No. 2 UCLA
Albany 2 | 1pm | ABC
The defending champions’ game against MTSU lasted two and a half quarters until Flau’jae Johnson turned on the jets. The Bruins struggled more in the second half, but also relied on sophomore guard — Kiki Rice — to power their comeback. Now, the two heavyweights, ranked No. 1 and No. 3 in The Athletic’s preseason power rankings, will meet in the Sweet 16.
Albany 2 is considered a death zone because of duels like this. LSU won it all last year, has the current SEC Player of the Year and Freshman of the Year, and a four-time championship head coach (who, well, is probably more distracted than usual). The Tigers also brought in this year’s No. 1 recruit. The Bruins countered with a top prospect in 2022 (Lauren Betts belongs) and projected first-round draft pick Charisma Osborne.
sweet 16 see#MarchMadness X @uclawbb pic.twitter.com/cvXjojBMN6
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessWBB) March 26, 2024
The showdown between Angel Reese and Bates will be available to watch by appointment only. Bates has the size and is better in the paint, but no one works harder than Reese, who will fight for every inch of her opponent in the post. Osborne will be tasked with guarding Johnson, specifically preventing the second-year star from getting loose in transition, but Osborne is no stranger to tough games. UCLA’s advantage may come at point guard, with Rice being bigger and more physical than Haley Van Liss, which could force LSU to bring in “that last drop” of Boa’s defensive prowess.
The Tigers have the advantage in experience, but the Bruins are deeper and arguably more talented. UCLA beat teams as good or better than LSU in the regular season, but the Tigers had a similar run in the NCAA Tournament. The lineup knocked it out of the park.
Pick: Louisiana State University
-Sabrina Merchant
Albany 2 | 3:30 PM | ABC
It’s always fun when the committee plans a rematch. When it comes to this particular game, there’s a good chance the Hawkeyes will be running into a familiar foe — they defeated Dallas in the Sweet 16 last year and have two more games against Kansas State this season. But that familiarity means we’ll likely see Iowa State coach Lisa Bruder and Colorado State coach J.R. Payne make some funny faces as they pretend to each other and delve into each other’s (already known) weaknesses. .
Considering Iowa struggled against West Virginia’s physical pressure defense, it’s reasonable to expect Colorado to mount a similar offense. The Hornets rank in the top 25 nationally in steal rate, which fuels their offense – nearly one-fifth of their points come on the fast break (15 points per game). Nearly half of their points came in the paint between guard Jaylyn Sherrod going downhill (or pulling up in the mid-range) and 6-3 forwards Aaronette Vonleh and Quay Miller.
Iowa is coming off one of its worst offensive performances of the season and will be looking to bounce back after scoring just 64 points and dishing out a season-low seven assists against West Virginia. Caitlin Clark is the headliner here, but what really determines how far Iowa State goes in March (and maybe April) will be the committee around her. Aside from Clark, the Hawkeyes shot 0-for-17 from 3-point range against the Mountaineers, but don’t expect the cold snap to last long. Colorado has its own three-point weapons in Frieda Foreman and Maddie Nolan (both shooting over 42 percent from distance), but that may not be enough against a Hawkeyes team eager to prove they’re better than last year’s team. The session was a much better team outing.
Pick:Iowa
— Chantelle Jennings
Portland 3 | 5:30 PM | ESPN
Two coaches with pro experience (Lindsey Gottlieb in the NBA and Nikki Curran in the WNBA) roamed the sidelines at USC and Baylor, bringing an offense with pro-style concepts and spacing. Both teams’ defenses may struggle to cover ground, at least initially, as both teams test each other.
Aside from the talent of JuJu Watkins, USC’s main advantage is its size. The Trojans are strong at every position and protect the paint well with the combination of Raya Marshall and Kaitlyn Daves. If the Bears let USC get inside, Baylor would be overwhelmed physically. They need to keep the ball in front and at the other end, keep the Trojans rotating to avoid attacking their size head-on.
If Watkins is disciplined with the ball and the Trojans prevent Baylor from getting into transition, USC can take control of the game. If they continue to attack the paint and use their length as their strength, this game should end in favor of the top seed.
Pick:University of Southern California
– merchant
Yes, we’re still considering it @jadawalkr11Last night’s performance 🤩
Step into the celebration, now available on Baylor+
📺: https://t.co/A60Qhef8li@BaylorWBB | #SicEm pic.twitter.com/JnUDBw8FJl
— Baylor+ (@BaylorPlus) March 25, 2024
Portland 3 | 8 p.m. | ESPN
Maybe UConn’s Sweet 16 showdown with Duke will hinge solely on the performance of Huskies star Paige Bueckers. In the Huskies’ first two NCAA tournament games in March, Bueckers averaged 30 points, 10.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists, and head coach Geno Auriemma said she was “a national playoff prospect.” The best player in the game.” The bigger key, however, may be the performance of the players around Bucs. In UConn’s 72-64 win over Syracuse in the second round, only four players scored (and only six players played), with senior Nika Mühl scoring one in 34 minutes Sent off after a scoreless performance. Despite its depth issues, UConn still ranks in the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency, and its talent often overwhelms opponents.
Meanwhile, Duke was able to beat second-seeded Ohio State in large part because of the offensive output of guard Regan Richardson. She scored 28 points, continuing her 25-point performance in the first round. Richardson could break out again against the Huskies, but she had just 15 points combined in Duke’s previous three games. Defensively, the Blue Devils rank sixth nationally in blocks per game and their physical defense ranks top 25 nationally. This game will likely be a low-scoring one, but the question is whether Duke’s offense can match up with Connecticut’s.
Pick: University of Connecticut
— Pickman
(Photos of Caitlin Clark, Angel Reese and Madison Booker: Matthew Holst/Getty Images, Eakin Howard/Getty Images, Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images)
