Western leaders hope a round of meetings at the Munich Security Conference will put overwhelming pressure on Israel not to launch a ground attack in Rafah.
In addition to Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Amir-Abdullahian, almost all key figures will be in Munich on Friday, including the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar and Jordan. Israeli President Isaac Herzog and Foreign Minister Israel Katz will also attend, along with the three hostages Raz Ben-Ami, Adi Shoham and Aviva Siegel. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will also fly in.
Pressure on Israel to avoid a ground attack comes from almost all parties, including allies such as the United States, Britain, France, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. The specter of a return to the ICJ and further UN Security Council resolutions sponsored by Algeria looms over Israel.
Since Tuesday, Egypt has hosted representatives from the United States, Israel’s main backer, and Qatar, home to Hamas’s political leadership, to negotiate a long-term truce that would include the release of more hostages. No breakthrough has been made yet.
Separate, more secretive talks are currently underway to see whether Hamas can form a “national consensus” with Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah movement under the umbrella of the Palestine Liberation Organization government”.
Western countries fear that if Hamas and Israel cannot agree on a suspension within days, Israeli and Hezbollah attacks in Lebanon will escalate, making it difficult for Hamas and Israel to return to the negotiating table.
Hamas no longer insists on a permanent ceasefire, but hopes to achieve it through a six-week humanitarian pause. Extraneous elements of Hamas’s original peace plan, including future policing of Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque, must be abandoned.
Arab leaders have been reluctant to set up a group to formally engage Western countries multilaterally on the Gaza crisis, including discussing the future governance of Gaza, preferring instead to hold bilateral talks with the United States. Therefore, it is unclear what form the Munich talks will take.
Abbas on Wednesday urged Hamas to “quickly reach an agreement with Israel” to protect the Palestinian people from “another catastrophe no less dangerous than the Nakba of 1948.” Hamas is seeking complex guarantees that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will abide by the ceasefire or suspension.
Western diplomats have also been discussing the creation of some kind of international security force and Arab contingent to enter Gaza after a ceasefire.
Israel opposes handing over Gaza’s security to a third party and opposes a two-state solution. Netanyahu said on Wednesday that the most important power Israel must retain is “maximum security control” west of the Jordan River.
Right-wing elements in the Israeli government have reiterated their complete opposition to Palestinian statehood.
British Foreign Secretary David Cameron has led calls for the West to recognize a Palestinian state before negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians end. The United States has said it is reviewing its recognition policy and Germany broadly supports Lord Cameron’s initiative.
During his latest trip to the region, Blinken called for “a practical, time-bound and irreversible path to a Palestinian state in peace with Israel.” “It’s becoming more and more noticeable,” he added.
But U.S. recognition of Palestine is a big step that will require the Palestinian Authority to do more to reinvigorate its democracy, including Abbas handing greater power to Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh. After Abbas fired 12 regional governors in late January without giving reasons, Shtayyeh announced a sweeping reform plan that includes the appointment of new regional governors. However, the plan, which included greater independence for the judiciary, lacked any implementation mechanism, including an elected parliament.
The most secretive and potentially crucial element in the discussions is the possibility of reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah under the umbrella of the PLO. Negotiations have failed several times in the past because Hamas’s charter does not recognize Israel. Apparently, Qadaa was trying to convince the Hamas leadership that they needed to allow a new, unified technocratic leadership to rule Gaza and the West Bank the next day, with elections to be held later. Iranian sources said Tehran did not object to the move and the news had been conveyed to the British Foreign Office.
Some Western countries, including Britain, insist Hamas cannot remain in power and must exile its leadership to reassure Israel that its security will be defended. At the same time, British officials acknowledge that Hamas is more than just a military force.
U.N. humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths said it was difficult to imagine a peace deal that excluded Hamas.
In an interview with Arab international newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, Abbas said the Palestinian Authority would be ready to govern Gaza “as soon as the aggression against our people ceases.”
He added that peace depends on recognition of Palestinian statehood secured through full membership of the United Nations and that an international peace conference is needed to provide guarantees and detail a timetable for an end to the Israeli occupation.
