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Mandel’s final thoughts: Georgia, Ohio and Texas top the list. Guess again later

NY TIMESBy

Now, on a Saturday in early September, 18 ideas are daring AP voters to blow up their ballots and start over.

1. After two weeks, I’m convinced that Georgia, Ohio State, and Texas are the correct top three teams. After that, my guess is the same as yours. Many of the top teams have had close calls against inferior opponents. One of the top five teams was beaten at home by NIU, which won the championship with 28 points.

2. This was supposed to be the year Marcus Freeman led Notre Dame back to the national championship game, not another loss at home to a five-team opponent in Week 2. (2022 Marshall, meet 2024 NIU.) After adding renowned offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock from LSU and quarterback Riley Leonard from Duke Leonard), he already has a wealth of experienced defenses. But on Saturday, Leonard was held to just 20 of 32 for 163 yards and two interceptions against a MAC opponent. NIU used the second down to hold the ball for 5 minutes and hit a field goal in the final seconds to defeat the Irish 16-14.

From day one, Freeman began informally auditioning for the job he already had at age 35 after Brian Kelly left. After a rough first year, he’s trending in the right direction. But Saturday was an absolute confidence-crusher, and it sapped any momentum Notre Dame had to win in the season opener at Texas A&M. If anything, it brings back issues long thought buried in the status of the Freeman Project. Yes, Notre Dame can still make the 12-team playoff, but only if Saturday’s game proves to be a complete fluke.

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Sampson: Notre Dame has been here before under Marcus Freeman. that’s the problem

3. A team like NIU will never win a national championship, but it sure feels sweet to win at Notre Dame Stadium as a huge underdog. Huskies coach and former NIU star running back Thomas Hammock cried during a postgame interview with NBC. The program has had its moments over the past two decades, most notably the Jordan Lynch era around 2012-13, but this is its biggest win yet. I wouldn’t have suggested before the season that the MAC could produce a G5 CFP representative, but I can’t imagine another G5 team winning a more significant non-conference victory.

4. No. 10 Michigan plays No. 3 Texas on Saturday, wearing the same uniforms and playing in the same stadium as the 2023 national champions, but that’s where the similarities end. The Longhorns’ 31-12 defeat at the Big House confirmed the worst fears about the Wolverines’ depleted offense. Even more amazing is the ease Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers (24 of 36, 246 yards, 3 TDs, no INT) shredded a Michigan defense that still had star power.

The Corners dominated the line of scrimmage, with Steve Sarkisian showing his usual prowess at finding crafty open players, most notably tight end Gunnar Helm. Gunnar Helm (7 catches, 98 yards). This should be a nice confidence boost for Texas as it begins its first-ever SEC schedule.

5. New Badgers head coach Sherrone Moore, who took over after Jim Harbaugh left for the Chargers, managed to keep the defending champions’ roster intact, but he also didn’t do much to upgrade it. I was surprised last spring when he didn’t bring in a transfer quarterback to compete for the starting job. Two games in and I’m already confused. Davis Warren appears to be a serviceable backup and he’s been thrust into the starting role, which isn’t a good thing for Alex Orji, whom he beat out. We’ll see if Moore gives Augie more reps next week against Arkansas State.

6. Nebraska’s 28-10 win over old rival Colorado was just the kind of party long-suffering Husker fans were craving. Five-star rookie quarterback Dylan Raiola looks to fit the role (23-for-30, 185 yards, 1 TD, no INT), while Matt Rhule Rhule’s second team looked faster on offense and more ferocious on defense. For Deion and Shedeur Sanders, on the other hand, it’s a frustratingly familiar plot. Colorado gave up six sacks and ran for just 16 yards to Shedeur Sanders (23 of 38, 244 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) and Travis Hunter (10 catches, 110 yards) after the game was announced. Keep playing catch on your own.

The Buffs’ defense is improved compared to 2023, but there’s still a sizable gap in their offensive skill talent and offensive line. Maybe AFLAC can help solve this problem.

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Stewart Mandel’s 12-team playoff predictions after Week 2

7. By far the best player in the country is Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty, who followed up his 267-yard, six-TD performance at Georgia Southern with a 2-0 loss against No. 7 Oregon ran for another 192 yards and three touchdowns. It wasn’t enough to overtake the Ducks, who won 37-34 on a last-second field goal, thanks in large part to an 85-yard punt return touchdown by Tez Johnson and a 100-yard touchdown by Noah ·Whittington’s punt return touchdown.

Without those, Oregon State could be in trouble as its usually explosive offense can’t function. Following significant losses along the interior of the offensive line, the Ducks have allowed seven sacks in two games. That’s two more than they gave up in the 2022 or 2023 seasons.

8. The night Alabama dedicated Nick Saban Stadium at Bryant-Denny Stadium, the Tide’s offensive performance left their former coach thoroughly frustrated. No. 4 Alabama scored just two points in its first 11 possessions against pesky USF and led just 21-16 with 6:45 left before exploding into two long stretches. from a touchdown and ended up winning by a deceptive 42 points. Karen DeBoer’s team has no shortage of weapons, such as running back Jam Miller (15 carries, 140 yards) and freshman receiver Ryan Williams (four catches, 68 yards). , but on this night, the Tide’s offensive line brought back troubling memories.

9. Saturday night’s Tennessee-North Carolina game in Charlotte was supposed to be a coming-out party for Vols quarterback Nico Iamaleava, but his defense stole his Limelight. No. 14 outlasted former Coastal Carolina Wolfpack quarterback Grayson McCall and limited No. 24 North Carolina to 143 total yards in a 51-10 victory code. We know Tennessee has an elite pass rusher in James Pearce, but nose tackle Omari Thomas and the rest of the Vols’ D-line dominate the Pack. Iamaleava (16-of-23, 211 yards) had his moments, but he also threw a pick-six for NC State’s only touchdown.

10. Here’s a game I didn’t see coming: South Carolina beat Old Dominion 23-19 at home, then beat Kentucky 31-6 on the road a week later. The Gamecocks’ D, led by five-star freshman pass rusher Dylan Stewart, had five sacks and six sacks of Wildcats quarterback Brock Vandagriff ), while allowing just 188 yards.

In addition to a 1-0 start in SEC play, Shane Beamer’s team went 5-7 last season and blew up on ESPN’s GameDay. The show is expected to take place next weekend in Lexington, Georgia, Kentucky. Now: Louisiana State University, South Carolina.

11. A few years ago, former star quarterback Brock Purdy led Iowa State’s rise under Matt Campbell. Enter Rocco Becht, a sophomore in his second year as the starter. Trailing 19-7 against rival Iowa State’s notoriously salty defense, Becht hit Jaylin Noel for a 75-yard touchdown and then again in the final minute. Connected with Noel for a 30-yard touchdown and set up Kyle Konrady’s game-winning 54-yard pass target. With the 20-19 victory, Campbell defeated Kirk Ferentz twice in the past three years after losing his previous five Cy-Hawk matches.

12. The Big 12 avoided two upsets in the early window on Saturday when No. 16 Oklahoma State trailed 21-7 before defeating Oklahoma State 39-31 in double overtime. Arkansas State, while No. 17 Kansas State trailed 20-20 at one point.

However, the losers of these games will be kicking themselves for a while. Offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino’s Razorbacks gained 648 yards but committed three turnovers and were stopped twice on fourth down. Meanwhile, Tulane redshirt freshman quarterback Darian Mensah had a big performance, finishing with four rushes of 30-plus yards and looking like he had the game remaining. The tying touchdown was thrown with 17 seconds left. But officials denied it, citing a nonexistent offensive pass interference call. Then Mensah threw a dagger to intercept.

Maybe a quality win or two will finally improve the Big 12’s chances.

13. Clemson heard all our ridicule after last week’s game against Georgia and took it out on respected G5 team Appalachian State. Behind a near-perfect performance from quarterback Cade Klubnik (24-for-26, 378 yards, five touchdowns, no penalties), the Tigers scored 35 points in the first quarter and halftime Scored 56 points before the end and won 66-20. It was a friendly reminder that despite losing the opener 34-3, Clemson could very well turn things around and win the ACC. And Georgia remains a holy terror.

14. The offensive wizardry Hugh Freeze showed at Mississippi State and Liberty has yet to come to Auburn. In the second game of Freeze’s second season, visiting Cal stifled the Tigers’ passing game, picking off Peyton Thorne four times and holding Auburn to 286 total yards. , won 21-14. Auburn fans will certainly be calling for Thorne, who was never able to replicate his great 2021 season at Michigan State, but it’s hard to tell how much of the problem is his fault and how much is the Tigers’ poor offensive line. of.

15. A year ago on the same weekend, Illinois traveled to Kansas State and trailed 34-7, losing 34-23. So it’s significant that Bret Bielema’s team not only won Saturday’s rematch 23-17 but also stifled the veteran offense of the 19th-ranked Jayhawks. Kansas’ star quarterback Jalon Daniels completed just 18 of 32 yards for 141 yards and threw three picks against the Illini defense. Maybe this means Illinois is ready for another season like 2022, when it won eight games and made Michigan uncomfortable. Or maybe KU isn’t ready for the preseason Top 25 just yet.

16. Last week, Syracuse coach Fran Brown joked that he should offer Ohio State’s Ryan a bottle of champagne for letting quarterback Kyle McCord hit free agency. McCord looked even better in his ACC debut, going 32 of 46 for 381 yards, four touchdowns and no picks in a 31-28 home win over Georgia Tech. Brown, the former defensive backs coach at Georgia, was relatively unknown before taking the job last winter, but he immediately earned fans’ trust when Syracuse emerged as the unexpected landing spot for the Buckeyes’ 2023 starter. It looks like these two will be big factors in the new conference this fall.

17. The restructuring gods tried to kick Washington State and Oregon State to the curb, but they didn’t go quietly. The Cougars defeated Big 12 rival Texas Tech 37-16 on AfterDark on Fox, with quarterback John Mateer responsible for 197 of the team’s 301 yards. Next week, the Apple Cup takes place against Washington in Seattle. The Beavers, meanwhile, won 21-0 at San Diego State and will face the pesky Ducks at home next week. That one is on Fox, too.

The future of both projects remains uncertain. At present, they have chosen not to continue cooperation on next season’s West Mountain schedule, possibly to arrange more P4 opponents. For a week at least, it feels like old times on these campuses.

18. Finally, when UAB reliever head coach Bill Clark had to resign due to health reasons before the 2022 season, offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent stepped in as interim head coach and posted a 7-6 record. That wasn’t good enough for UAB, which hired Trent Dilfer in a big way even though he had never coached college football.

Vincent is now the head coach of Louisiana-Monroe, which beat Dilfer’s Blazers 32-6 on Saturday. Dilfer, a former NFL quarterback and ESPN analyst, has three FBS wins in his first 14 games at UAB.

As always, the most high-profile recruits are rarely the best recruits.

(Photo of Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers celebrating after a touchdown: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

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