Each NBA playoff series is its own unique event, with no true point of continuity between the end of one game and the beginning of another.
For example, the Minnesota Timberwolves defeated the defending champion Denver Nuggets, but that didn’t automatically make them king of the hill; the next round series against the Dallas Mavericks presented an entirely different set of challenges, and the Timberwolves’ The lineup is even less equipped to handle these challenges. Likewise, the Indiana Pacers’ valiant battle against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals tells us little about what might happen in Boston’s series against Dallas; aside from leaning toward hiring Rick Carlisle, Indiana and Dallas bears little resemblance.
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That’s important knowledge to remember in the coming days as we investigate every possible angle during the long break before the NBA Finals kick off on June 6 between the Celtics and Mavericks. Boston has won 12 of 14 games by double-digit margins after winning six of its last seven games before being eliminated on Thursday against Minnesota.
However, there’s a fatal flaw in using these games as projections for what might happen in the NBA Finals: These two teams will be facing off completely differently than what they faced in the last round. In that sense, it might be a good thing for Dallas and Boston to have a few days off to regroup. The formula for winning in the next round will be completely different.
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Take the Celtics, for example. They just finished a series against one of the most polarizing teams in basketball and now need to adjust to a much different team on both ends of the floor. Especially the Pacers’ defensive style is almost 180 degrees from Dallas’s defensive style. The Pacers are taking the fewest three-point attempts in the league this season and are more than willing to allow drives to the rim as long as they seal the three-point line.
While they didn’t do a perfect job against the Celtics — Boston still hit 43 3-pointers per game in the conference finals, matching its season total — it still matched Dallas’ three-game season total. The post-game approach was completely different. The Mavericks tried to protect the rim at all costs through rim protectors Derrick Lively II and Daniel Gafford, allowing two-point field goals in Game 5 of the playoffs against Minnesota. Only 50.2%.
The Mavericks aren’t giving up a ton of 3-pointers overall, but they are willing to give up a certain type of 3-point shot — a pick-and-roll 3-pointer from opposing centers. The Clippers and Wolves are without starters to hurt them, but Dallas has Chet Holmgren and Jaylin Williams firing for the Thunder (42 shots in six games), while Minnesota benches Na Z Reid made 25 three-pointers in this game.
Needless to say, this strategy is highly questionable against the Celtics if Kristaps Porzingis is healthy (he is expected to return to the NBA Finals). Porziis is averaging 37.5% from three-point range on over six attempts per game this season, and many of his attempts come from a few feet beyond the arc. For that matter, Boston big man Al Horford is shooting 41.9 percent.
Dallas isn’t the only team experiencing this problem. Keeping rim protectors close to the rim has been a thorny issue for Boston’s opponents all season, a problem that has spawned a variety of original but unsuccessful solutions. For example, the Golden State Warriors tried to put Draymond Green against Jaylen Brown, keeping Green in the paint and encouraging Brown to shoot 3-pointers in games in March. Brown hit five 3-pointers in the first seven minutes and was on pace to break Wilt Chamberlain’s scoring record before the Warriors reconsidered.
I attended that game, and my column that weekend delved further into the unique dilemma posed by Boston’s superior shooting at every position. Simply put: A team like Indiana that struggles to shoot threes and rely on offense around the rim is the only one that has a chance against the Celtics. Sure, the Pacers dropped points, but they beat Boston twice in the regular season and had them in a desperate situation in Game 1 of the conference finals until fate intervened…a late three-pointer.
By comparison, Dallas is a middle-of-the-pack team at stopping opponents from 3-point range, and it’s been that way again in the playoffs. One of the big conundrums for the Mavericks is how to change a defensive strategy that was close to optimal against the Clippers, Thunder and Wolves and adapt it against a very different Boston team. Recent events do not bode well in this regard. When the Mavericks traveled to Boston in March with all their new trade pieces, they lost 138-110, with Boston shooting 21 of 43 from 3-point range.
However, the Celtics also need to make some adjustments. Indiana takes every opportunity possible to get the ball to the man with the rock, while Dallas plays a much slower and more heliocentric style. Yes, the Mavericks will run opportunistically, but compared to playing against the Pacers, it feels like a shift from technical orgy to Gregorian chant.
Additionally, the player controlling Dallas may be the best offensive player in the league, and the defense he faces has an inherent weakness—the inability to truly be able to switch between the five positions. We saw the performance of Minnesota, the league’s No. 1 defense. Can the Celtics really survive the series against 40-plus minutes of defense from Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving? Or do they need to feel uncomfortable?
While the Celtics have more lineup options (for example, they could put Porzingis on Derrick Jones Jr. to counter Dallas’ pick-and-roll game with Lively and Gafford) as well as Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, both defensive backs, but Doncic has seen and figured out every coverage.
Obviously, there’s still a lot to unpack here – Porzis and Irving’s revenge series! Luka reaches the NBA Finals for the first time! Jayson Tatum’s redemption move! Reflections on the Grant Williams era! We’ll have plenty of time to do it all, but these teams have episode Before this final round. Everyone needs it for a complete tactical overhaul.
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(Photo of Luka Doncic and Al Horford: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
