When the NFL Draft begins Thursday night, the bright lights and quarterback debate will be as bright as ever. But something is different this year, and that will become even more apparent as the rounds roll around and we head into day three on Saturday.
Just 58 underclassmen declared for this week’s draft, down from 130 players in the 2021 class and the smallest number of underclassmen since 2011.
“It’s crazy that these guys are making more money in college than they are in the NFL,” Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur said.
Players began signing marketing deals after the Supreme Court ruled in 2021 that college athletes have the right to be compensated for their “name, image and likeness.” The 2020 pandemic-shortened season also played a role in keeping players in school, as they were given an extra year of eligibility. The NCAA then allowed players to transfer without waiting a year.
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NIL payments aren’t public figures, but most of the players who will be drafted in the first three rounds this week have money in the bank right now. USC quarterback Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick of the Chicago Bears, is estimated to have earned about $10 million while at school. He may be an outlier, but NFL coaches are noticing a difference in their interactions with NIL-era draft prospects.
“You look for guys who have that look in their eyes,” Las Vegas Raiders coach Antonio Pierce said. “You can really feel it, and you can also see people who are entitled, they don’t have money, and that’s a problem because they’re privileged. They have money in the bank.
“When I came into the league, I was broke. These guys were already wearing damn jewelry and Louis Vuitton was already rocking the boat.
Las Vegas Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce wants to see players enter the NFL with the same competitive edge that he has. (Steve Marcus/Getty Images)
Pierce wants players with upside, and he believes having money in the bank from college could hurt their efforts to make the starting lineup in the NFL. Minnesota Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell said complicating the issue is that it’s hard to know how players will respond to adversity when so many are suddenly entering the transfer portal.
“They already have money in their pockets, so you’re going to see some guys not working as hard in the pre-draft process,” agent Ron Slavin said. “And no one eats those bun ramen anymore.”
The NFL’s 2024 rookie minimum salary is $795,000. Selected players sign standard four-year deals — first-round picks also include a fifth-year option — that adjust based on draft position. The four-year deal for the No. 1 pick — presumably Williams — is $38.5 million. By the start of the second round, the four-year value fell below $10 million. Starting around the fourth round, players make an average of about $1 million per season on their rookie contracts.
This is where the quality of players in this year’s draft has dropped significantly.
“Clubs said it was a really good draft, going through 150 picks, and then it fell off a cliff,” agent Steve Carrick said.
New York Giants general manager Joe Schoen said Thursday that 170 draftable players are returning to school this year, according to the team’s assistant director of player personnel Dennis Hickey.
“The whole draft landscape has changed due in part to COVID and zero,” Baltimore Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta said. “There are fewer players available to be drafted and there are fewer underclassmen. ”
“All these guys stay in school for loose change,” Senior Bowl executive director Jim Nagy said. “You’ll see teams draft players late who typically sign as priority free agents.”
Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said players he has been scouting for years are still not in the draft.
“It’s a supply and demand issue,” he said. “Defensive line is obviously a big issue in college, and a lot of guys are getting paid a lot of money to go back to college. So that’s going to impact our league and the depth at the position and other things.
NFL teams may be looking for fifth-, sixth- and seventh-round picks on the eve of the draft and move up.
“We’ve discussed the idea that in the later rounds of the draft, if there’s no one you covet, maybe trade that pick for a better pick,” DeCosta said.
The feeling in the NFL is that the quality of this year’s draft prospects has declined after the fourth round, in part because too many players are choosing to stay in school. (Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Jason Belzer is the CEO and co-founder of Student Athlete NIL (SANIL), where he manages more than 30 booster groups for some of the larger Power 5 schools.
“I think the NIL has had a pretty big impact on the NFL, and for the better,” Belzer said. “More and more players are choosing to stay in college football to develop and get paid instead of entering the draft. There are multiple quarterbacks making over a million dollars a year who are not going to get that much money because they will be in the final round. Got drafted. Developmentally, the NIL is the best thing that’s ever happened to the NFL.
He estimated that 40 college players are making more than the NFL’s 2023 minimum salary of $750,000, with more making $500,000, including players expected to take tackles in this week’s sixth round. Belzer said there are about five players on every Power 5 roster making more than $100,000.
For late-round draft picks who aren’t guaranteed to make the roster, the decision to return to school can be fairly easy.
“No matter where you go, even if it’s the sixth or seventh round, it’s a big honor to be drafted, but if you’re a seventh-round pick, you’re going to get a $90,000 signing bonus, that’s the only guaranteed part. your contract,” said agent Eugene Lee. “Comparatively, at a school, you have a first-line starter at a P4 school and you say, ‘Hey, come back! We’ll give you $350,000.’ It’s like, ‘Okay.’ You buy a loss of value policy and that’s it.
Late-round candidates simply take advantage of the opportunity to have their cake and eat it too.
“For example, a fourth-round pick has the opportunity to go back to school and get better, improve his draft stock and then make more money next year,” Carrick said. “As insurance, he can make as much as he should with his Day 3 signing bonus, thanks to the NIL and going back to school.”
More college experience could be a good thing, especially at the quarterback position. Jayden Daniels played 55 games at Arizona State and LSU, nearly as many games as North Carolina’s Drake Maye (28 games).
“We don’t have the minor leagues, and those extra years are probably a couple of minor league years,” Adofo-Mensah said. “It also depends on where and what system they play and how relevant that is to our game.”
The Vikings own the 11th and 23rd picks in the first round, and they can trade up to fill their quarterback needs, or just stay put and use their first pick on the best player available , and then use the latter pick to draft someone like Oregon State QB Bo Nix. Nix, who played 61 games at Auburn and Oregon, believes his experience gives him an edge over other potential first-round quarterbacks.
“Repetition is the mother of all skills, so the more things you can do, the better you’re going to do,” Nix said at the combine. “I was able to show that over time, getting better and better, learning new things, playing in different systems — five years out of five is a lot, but it’s also a lot of fun. I don’t know how to use It comes in exchange for the world.
Nix is 24 years old, which may affect his perceived upside.
Bonix’s age (24) may work against him in the draft process, but he considers his experience to be a benefit. (Zac BonDurant/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
“I think if you’re older, it’s not a bad thing, it might even be a better thing,” Raiders general manager Tom Telesco said. “You have more experience and are more mature in this position. Other positions may or may not be important.
“Typically as a scouting staff, we always say we want a young player because he has a chance to develop and maybe has more ceiling. Is that true or false? I’m not really sure. But I do know , we’re going to have some players that come into the league with a lot of experience and may be ready to play earlier than in the past.
Knicks could have entered the draft last year but stayed for a chance to win a national championship and have the NIL-allowed cushion.
That experience advantage may only apply to quarterbacks, though.
“I can’t tell you how many conversations I’ve had in the last few weeks with clubs asking about player A or player B; getting older is always a disadvantage,” Carrick said. “They obviously want to draft a guy that they’re going to have more than one contract with. When you come into the league at 24 and go into your super senior year, it’s not as attractive as 21.
Alabama offensive tackle JC Latham was able to enjoy a different college lifestyle than previous players, but he said the extra money also helped prepare him for the NFL.
“It definitely makes you grow,” Latham said at the combine. “You have to understand that you’re getting more money now, so you’re going to have a bigger target on your back.”
It also helps players learn how to manage their own money before attending their first NFL rookie training camp.
“If you want to create more wealth for yourself and your family, you have to really understand how to manipulate and manage it,” Latham said. “Definitely gives you a real sense of what’s going on around you and how to create wealth early on.”
All of these players who remain in school have to come out at some point, so the pool of draftable players will grow again next year.
𝙎𝘾𝙊𝙐𝙏𝙄𝙉𝙂𝙉𝙀𝙒𝙎: our @seniorbowl The staff has been evaluating 2025 prospects since January, and it’s crazy how much an extra Covid year and NIL has had such a huge impact on the number of draft-eligible people.
So far we have graded 25+ students in most P5 (or is it now P4?) schools.
go through… pic.twitter.com/GG1NiSCRXY
— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) April 11, 2024
General managers and coaches still need to draft good players to keep their jobs — owners don’t want to hear excuses about zero impact after another losing season.
“I do think — especially in the early rounds — this is a very good draft,” Denver Broncos general manager George Payton said.
While the NFL may be uncomfortable with the NIL, that doesn’t change the way it watches player tape and decides who to invest in.
“It didn’t have a big impact on our preparation,” said Mike McDonald, first-year Seattle Seahawks coach and former defensive coordinator at Michigan State. “I’ve been ready since we got back to Michigan.
“The only thing is, some of these players are going to have to take a pay cut to play in the league.”
—Staff writer Tashan Reed contributed to this report.
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(Above: Dan Golfarb/ Competitor; Top photo of Roger Goodell and Caleb Williams: Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images and Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
