timeThere have been rain-soaked festivals and frigid festivals since the National Hunter show began to emerge in the winter and take hold in the racing world. In 2001, no festival took place at all due to the foot and mouth crisis, and in 2021, during the third Covid lockdown, another festival took place behind closed doors. During that period, stretching back to the mid-1980s, key indicators – including number of games, prize money, attendances and stakes – have been on an upward trend.
The “Cheltenham” concept, if it had been considered at all, would not have been feasible in the middle distance, perhaps when the track was sold out for all four days. So the jumping fraternity heads to the West Country on Tuesday with some uncertainty in mind, with British stables facing their annual beating from the Irish and, potentially at least, Cheltenham’s ‘peak’ behind them . .
It’s only been two years since audiences flocked to film festivals again after an empty 2021, as was the case with the post-festival foot-and-mouth outbreak.
The four-day total attendance set a new record of nearly 281,000, with nearly 74,000 fans turning out for the games on both Thursday and Friday. Tuesday’s total attendance of 68,567 was also a record, before the decision was made to “limit” attendances to 68,500 for all four days to ensure “the festival remains an engaging and enjoyable experience in the long term” ”, which seemed sensible since the numbers were already at, or above, this level for all but the afternoon of the next day.
Just 12 months later, the situation was very different. The “post-epidemic rebound” performance was mediocre. The number of attendees fell below the bottom line in the first three days, with a total of 240,603 visitors, a year-on-year decrease of 14%.
Of course, in 2023, with inflation and fuel prices soaring and the cost of living crisis taking center stage, any day in the race (let alone a race that can cost hundreds of pounds in total) is tough. A few months after the economic collapse in September 2008, attendance in 2009 also fell from 2007, albeit by a smaller 8%, but soon returned to steady growth.
The third day of the train strike in 2023 also made life difficult, but at the end of the meeting, the track’s general manager Ian Renton still expressed “complete confidence … that crowds will return to normal levels next year. “
Twelve months later, the mood music at Cheltenham has become even more subdued. Tickets are still available for the Gold Cup day in late February, with tickets sold out by the end of January 2022, while groundskeeper Jon Pullin said two weeks ago that while Cheltenham’s Overall sales are “starting to pick up,” and he hopes to end the week with similar numbers to last year. “
If that’s the hope, the reality is likely that sales are actually lagging behind 2023. If so, news in recent days that Constitution Hill, arguably the conference’s brightest star, will not be able to defend its title in Tuesday’s Champion Hurdle is unlikely to encourage “live” ticket sales on the opening day.
The late omission of “Constitution Hill” from the cast added to the feeling of being at a disadvantage at the start of the session. But since it’s the holiday season, it’ll likely come into play again by Friday, with plenty of potential feel-good stories sprinkled throughout the next four days. Thursday’s ‘Stayers’ Hurdle’ win for the popular Paisley Park outfit – which, it seems, will be immediately retired – is sure to rank among the most memorable festivals of recent decades .
Meanwhile, even without Constitution Hill, there are plenty of quality horses and potential head-to-head clashes, such as El Fabiolo vs. Joe Benn in Wednesday’s Championship Chase, while Friday’s Gold Cup has plenty of characters and potential The game’s plot line begins with the much-loved favorites from Galopin Des Champs.
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But it’s also worth noting that Willie Mullins’ State Man is expected to be the favorite to win the Champion Hurdle even in the absence of Constitution Hill. He’s just one of as many as eight prospects in 28 games, which would set another somewhat unpopular record for this conference.
In general, be careful not to sound like a bitter old-timer complaining that things are no longer the way they used to be. But in terms of the festival’s legendary competitiveness, which in turn has generated excitement, uncertainty and stakes, there are numbers to back it up. In addition to the ever-increasing odds favoritism, the average odds for all favorites in the conference has dropped a point in the past 10 years alone, from over 4-1 in 2014 to just below 4-1 in 2014 11-4. 2023.
With the event reduced from 20 races over three days in 2004 to 28 races over four days, there was always the possibility that the festival would become less competitive. But the past decade has also been characterized by the increasing dominance of Irish-trained runners in general, and the Willie Mullins stable in particular. This year, for the third consecutive season, Ireland will make up the majority of the field. British stables are even increasingly withdrawing from racing.
It’s hard to say how much this all contributes to the apparent reluctance of horse racing spectators in 2022 to repeat the experience a year later. The overall quality of runners at modern festivals is still much higher than it was a quarter of a century ago, and for any serious punter, a winner is still a winner, regardless of where they train.
But this week’s attendance will be closely watched for any sign that the festival’s 35 years of near-constant progress have begun to lose steam. Perhaps 2023 is indeed temporary and the coming week will reignite popular interest in Cheltenham. But at the same time, it’s worth recalling that eventually, even Godzilla was forced to retreat.
