ANN ARBOR, Mich. — Ward Manuel is a patient man. Some would say, be patient with mistakes.
The way Manuel sees it, it’s the athletic director’s job to avoid knee-jerk reactions. Sports fans are fickle. They want what they want, and they want it now. When public pressure is at its highest, Manuel believes it’s time to take a step back, collect his thoughts, and make sober decisions.
“You have to seek the facts,” Manuel said recently. “You can’t overreact emotionally.”
Soon, Manuel will need to do that with Juwan Howard. Because facts are facts and emotions go both ways.
Everyone in Michigan wants Howard to succeed. He is one of the greatest players in Michigan history. He’s had a rough year, recovering from heart surgery while trying to coach a team in a major transition. From a human perspective, it’s natural and admirable for Manuel to feel sympathy for the coach he hired.
“If I didn’t worry about him, I would be callous,” Manuel said.
If Manuel keeps his word, he’ll need to put those emotions aside and look at the Michigan men’s basketball program as a whole. What he will see is a team that is 8-18, 3-12 in the Big Ten after a 73-63 loss to Michigan State on Saturday.
Some facts to consider:
Saturday’s loss dropped Michigan to 5-8 at home. In a league where teams win 81 percent of their games at home, Michigan is the only team with a losing record. Michigan has lost a halftime lead in eight of its losses over the past two seasons and is 9-20 in games decided by single digits. And then there’s the off-court stuff: the Wisconsin scrimmage two years ago, this year’s incident with strength coach Jon Sanderson, and the academic suspension that caused point guard Doug McDaniel to miss road games.
Michigan State seems to alternate between lifeless performances and games like Saturday’s, where it failed miserably at halftime but then disappeared. The Wolverines committed 22 turnovers and were held scoreless for the final seven minutes, an all-too-familiar ending for a team with a long history of collapsing late in games.
Then, when asked if he could imagine himself leaving after the season given his heart surgery in September and ongoing rehab, Howard responded defiantly.
“It lets me know you really don’t know me,” said Howard, now in his fifth season. “If you know me a little better and know my story, no matter where I’ve been, I’ve always faced the noise, rolled up my sleeves and looked for solutions. When we finish this season, we will be based on solutions. Next season as well We’re going to finish the season strong.”
MSU picked up a 10-point victory in Ann Arbor on Saturday. (Rick Osentowski/USA Today)
Michigan will owe Howard a $3 million buyout if he is fired after this season. Just days ago, Manuel expressed support for Howard and said he was not considering changes to his plans.
Manuel’s comments came the same day Ohio State fired coach Chris Holtmann, who was in his seventh season. By comparison, Holtmann’s records in the Big Ten Conference were 30-30 and 9-25 the past two seasons. Howard’s records during the same period were 26-34 and 14-21.
Howard has two Sweet 16s, an Elite Eight and a Big Ten championship on his resume, while Holtmann has none. These achievements feel increasingly distant. While it would be unfair to attribute Howard’s early success solely to the program established by John Beilein, the trend line doesn’t do him any favors.
Fans will protest, but there is reason to erase the past record and give Howard another chance to right his wrongs. When Howard’s teams have the right players, they have been competitive in the Big Ten. Michigan had some bad luck in the transfer portal, losing Terrance Shannon and Caleb Love to recruiting issues. Howard bears some responsibility for this, but it’s nice to see the team he recruited actually take the floor and speak.
Add in the fact that Howard was out early in the season due to serious health issues, and Manuel may have reason to stick with Howard for another year. Manuel revealed his thoughts by comparing this basketball season to Michigan’s 2020 football season. With a 2-4 record in the 2020 football season, many fans are calling for Jim Harbaugh to be fired.
Manuel stuck with Harbaugh and gave him a chance to restart the program. Three years later, Harbaugh hoisted a national championship trophy in Houston. The situation reinforced Manuel’s belief in second chances.
“(Harbaugh) probably had some things to change and adapt to, but he’s a great coach,” Manuel said, recalling his thought process. “Everyone was saying I should be fired because I didn’t fire him, and that’s what I told people. It’s ridiculous.”
There’s no denying that Manuel’s patience paid off, but there’s also a risk in overgeneralizing. As every Michigan fan can attest, Harbaugh is one of a kind. He also has a record of winning games at every stop in his career. Howard is a first-time head coach, and this bad season didn’t happen during a pandemic.
If Michigan retains Howard, it should be for one reason and one reason only: because he is the coach who gives Michigan the best chance of success. It must be a decision based on facts and the future, not rooted in history or sentimentality.
In essence, Manuel’s comments last week about Howard’s future weren’t that different from comments he made in January. But they also acknowledge that the current situation in Michigan is unacceptable.
“We have to do better,” Manuel said. “He knows it. They know it. People’s expectations are high.”
At Michigan, Howard had a boss willing to be patient. Patience, like time, eventually runs out.
(Above: Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
