Security services across Europe are on alert for arson and sabotage, a potential new weapon in Russia’s war, after a series of mysterious fires and infrastructure attacks in the Baltic states, Germany and Britain.
When a fire broke out at an Ikea in Vilnius, Lithuania, this month, there was little comment until Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk suggested it might have been the work of foreign saboteurs.
Investigators have accused Russia of possible involvement in an arson attack in east London, a fire that destroyed Poland’s largest shopping mall, vandalism in Bavaria, Germany, and anti-Semitic graffiti in Paris.
While there is no evidence that the incidents on the continent are coordinated, security services believe they may be part of a systematic attempt by Moscow to destabilize Western support for Ukraine.
They point out that after the end of the Cold War, foreign intelligence operations consisted of spies and their operators, but in the age of social media, saboteurs can be hired with little contact with other attackers because pay-as-you-go saboteurs pay some cost.
Growing concerns that these hybrid attacks could be the work of Russia prompted the issue to be raised at a summit of foreign and defense ministers in Brussels this week, with security officials from the Netherlands, Estonia and Lithuania all warning that their countries’ Vulnerability.
One minister, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they were deeply concerned about “sabotage, physical sabotage organized, funded and carried out by Russian proxies”.
Last week, Tusk revealed that Polish authorities had arrested nine people suspected of sabotage on orders from the Russian government.
He said the crimes allegedly included “beatings, arson and attempted arson” and that investigators were probing whether Russia was involved in a fire at a Warsaw shopping mall, a claim the Russian embassy labeled a conspiracy theory.
An IKEA spokesman said an investigation into the origins of the fire in Lithuania was continuing, and Tusk cited an attempted arson attack on a paint factory in Poland as examples when warning of potential foreign interference.
In April, a British man was accused of planning arson attacks on two units linked to a Ukrainian businessman on an industrial estate in Leyton, east London, who was allegedly recruited by Russian intelligence. The Crown Prosecution Service claimed that he “was involved in targeting businesses with links to Ukraine in order to benefit the Russian state”.
Estonia’s Defense Minister Hanno Pevkul said on Tuesday while attending an EU defense summit in Brussels that his country had fallen victim to Russian sabotage.
“They carried out similar operations in Estonia. They hired 10 people to attack the interior minister’s car and a journalist’s car. This is normal behavior in Russia. We are sorry to say, but we need to understand that Russia has a negative impact on European countries and NATO countries are becoming increasingly aggressive,” he said.
He was referring to an incident in February when the windows of the car of Interior Minister Lauri Läänemets and a journalist were smashed.
Six people, including Russian citizens and dual Russian-Estonian citizens, were arrested shortly after, prosecutors said.
In Germany, foreign intelligence-driven attacks are suspected, in addition to a wave of cyberattacks in 2023 by a hacker group linked to Russian intelligence.
Last month, two German and Russian citizens were arrested on suspicion of planning sabotage attacks, including on a military base in Bavaria. The main suspect is accused of planning bombings, arson and maintaining contacts with Russian intelligence services.
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French investigators are considering whether graffiti painted on a Holocaust memorial in Paris last week was ordered by Russian security services.
It was reminiscent of last year’s attacks in which Stars of David were spray-painted on buildings in and around Paris, raising fears of a recurrence of Nazi-era attempts to identify the Jewish homeland. Authorities later said they believed the attack may have been “requested” by individuals living abroad.
European officials worry the attacks will add to an already proliferating disinformation campaign. Several schools around Athens were evacuated on Wednesday over a bomb hoax. Police traced it to a Russian server and said the stunt was aimed at “disturbing public order”.
EU countries are tracking the incidents. Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Center (NKVC) warned businesses including shopping malls and pro-Ukraine organizations to be on alert.
“The threat level is quite high. We urge the public to remain vigilant,” NKVC head Vilmantas Vitkauskas told reporters two weeks ago.
On Monday, the Netherlands’ national security and counter-terrorism coordinator warned of the risk of subversive operations in the Netherlands, including “espionage and pre-positioning to damage critical infrastructure”.
Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Orrongren said in Brussels on Tuesday that Russia was “trying to intimidate” NATO countries and make EU members vulnerable.
“Yes, we are vulnerable. I think all of us are. We have critical infrastructure. We have undersea infrastructure, we have power supply, water supply, we are vulnerable to cyberattacks.
“I think this is indeed the approach that Russia and the Soviet Union have taken throughout recent history; and I think we’ve seen this a lot in the 75 years of NATO’s existence,” she said.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also pointed the finger at Moscow. “We have seen several arrests across the alliance and across different NATO allies of people accused of arson or sabotage. These are certainly ongoing legal proceedings,” he said. “But what I can say is that we are seeing an increase in Russian intelligence activity across the alliance. So we are on heightened alert.
