There’s a reason why, the moment Gareth Southgate and his players were verbally abused and plastic cups hurled at them in Cologne on Tuesday, the UK’s major bookmakers were slashing England’s chances of winning 2024 Odds for the 2020 European Cup.
It’s not about a sudden burst of optimism or a flurry of betting activity. After all, who would spend money on an England victory after that?
It’s because of the way the tournament has started to take shape: England’s odds have been slashed along with Italy, Austria and Switzerland. The odds of France, Spain, Germany or Portugal winning the title also changed.
If there were a free draw after the group stage, as happens in European club competitions, it would be difficult to set our sights on Spain, Germany, Portugal and pre-tournament favorite France (despite their poor performance so far).
But the path is predetermined. The knockout bracket looked unbalanced until the ball was kicked. The imbalance was further exacerbated by France’s failure to win their group, meaning they finished in the top half alongside Spain, Germany, Portugal and Denmark. Belgium could also make it into Group E if they finish second or third.
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What is England’s route to the Euro 2024 final?
On paper, the bottom quarter of the group looks quite strong: Switzerland face Italy in Berlin on Saturday; England face the third-placed team (most likely the Netherlands) on Sunday. But Switzerland, Italy and England each won one game in the group stage. If you add the Netherlands (or the third-placed team in Group E – Romania, Belgium, Slovakia or Ukraine), then a possible 12 games becomes four wins.
To put this into context, in the lower quarter of the draw, teams with just one win in the group stage will advance to the semi-finals – which at worst would mean facing Austria, Belgium or the Netherlands. The most likely semi-final arrangement in the second half draw is probably Spain or Germany versus Portugal or France.
After a 0-0 draw with Slovenia on Tuesday, Southgate was told England may be lucky with their situation in the knockout stages. “We shouldn’t be tempted by which half of the draw we get,” the manager told ITV Sport. “We have to take it step by step. Tonight was an improvement. We have to improve ourselves to win the next round.
At the post-match press conference, he made it clear that England were ultimately on the opposite side of the ball with Germany, France, Spain and Portugal. “We have a lot of respect for all the teams you mentioned, but equally, we have some really good teams here,” he said.
But the situation is not the same. As at the 2018 World Cup, fate favored England and all the other teams who ended up in this group – especially Austria, who had every right to claim they had made their own luck by finishing ahead of France and the Netherlands.
In 2018, 5 of the top 6 teams in the knockout stage (Brazil, Belgium, Portugal, Argentina and France) ended up on one side of the draw, while the other half went to Spain (who won just one game )composition.
That World Cup was widely regarded as Belgium’s best chance of winning a major tournament, with many of their “golden generation” players at or near their peak. But they paid a heavy price for victory in Group G, beating Japan and Brazil before losing to France in the semi-finals. England finished second in the group behind Belgium and thus secured a softer spot in the draw, which saw them beat Colombia and Sweden before losing to Croatia in the semi-finals.
Euro 2016 brought a similar imbalance. Italy, led by Antonio Conte, performed well in the group stages, but their prize of winning Group E was placed on the tougher side of the draw. They beat Spain 2-0 but lost on penalties to Germany in the quarter-finals. The German team lost again to the host France in the semifinals. On the other hand, Portugal drew third place with Iceland, Austria and Hungary in Group F, defeated Croatia in the round of 16, Poland in the quarter-finals, and Wales in the semi-finals. entering the finals.
Some competitions are free draws, such as the FA Cup. Others, like the NFL or NBA, look at team rankings based on regular season records, which should theoretically ensure that the two strongest teams in each league end up on opposite sides of the draw.
That’s not how international football competitions – including the World Cup, European Championships, Copa America, African Cup of Nations and Asian Cup – work. It was determined from the moment the lots were drawn: the winner of Group A versus the runner-up of Group B, the winner of Group C versus the runner-up of Group D, and so on.
The group stage draw is seeded, but teams are assigned to each group through a random draw, which increases the possibility of a one-sided knockout outcome. With tournaments compressed into four or five weeks, and games taking place in the host country, it’s beneficial to have a predetermined structure for planning, travel and ensuring each team has adequate rest between games.
There are still inconsistencies. Austria will have seven days off between the end of the group stage on Tuesday and the first knockout game next Tuesday, while Spain’s last-16 opponents (yet to be determined) will only have four days off.
Everything about knockout football makes a difference. But it can be safely predicted that a team that underperformed at Euro 2024 will reach the semi-finals and possibly the final. After a difficult group stage, teams such as England, Switzerland, and Italy all achieved soft landings. It might even be a springboard for one of them.
(Above: Andreas Gora/Picture Alliance via Getty Images)
