You might have watched Manchester United reach the FA Cup final for the second time in as many seasons thanks to Alhaji Wright’s left boot and thought it was a lucky escape as they lost 3-0 to the Championship Opponent, it’s not worth it.
However, Erik ten Hag does not think Manchester United are lucky. If anything, he discussed his team’s misfortunes most enthusiastically in his post-match press conference, particularly Coventry City’s stoppage-time penalty, which he considered a handball awarded to Aaron Wan-Bissaka. “Absolutely crazy” decision.
Ten Hag made much the same argument during United’s last Premier League game against Bournemouth. While admitting that “like a minister” he would take ultimate responsibility for the outcome, he could not help but lament his team’s bad luck over the past eight months.
“It’s huge. There’s a lot of things going against us this season,” he said. Although United’s misfortunes are not limited to refereeing decisions in Ten Hag’s mind, that is where his training focus lies.
“You look at all the penalties we conceded last week (against Chelsea and Liverpool) that could have happened the other way too. You think over the course of a season sometimes you get one and sometimes you lose one. This season it feels like we Just dropped the ball.
Manchester United has received 5 penalties and conceded 11 goals this season, 4 of which were conceded in the first 4 games of the Champions League group stage. While most goals conceded in Europe are not particularly controversial, many of the six conceded in the Premier League have sparked debate.
Some were weak – notably the concessions of Rasmus Hoylund and Casemiro against Manchester City and Wolves – while others were more controversial. Remarkably, none resulted in the official in charge of the next round being suspended, as happened to Wolves after a penalty was denied at Old Trafford on the opening weekend of the season.
However, all of these decisions are matters of opinion. With the exception of offside, most refereeing decisions are inherently subjective and, as the VAR era has taught us, there are different definitions of what constitutes a clear error.
Ten Hag has more substantive reasons to complain about the single biggest reason for Manchester United’s woes: player injuries and forced absences. At some point this year, the revolving door in United’s treatment room has been worn by all but four senior members of the squad – Bruno Fernandes, Andre Onana, Diogo Dalot and Alejandro Garnacho. Pass.
The 2-2 away draw with Bournemouth was the first time Manchester United had an unchanged lineup since the first two games of the season due to injuries. According to Transfermarkt, United have missed a total of 1,710 days since the start of the season.
Ten Hag said last week that he had been unable to pick his “favourite” line-up since the 2-1 defeat to Manchester City at Old Trafford last January. Just as United’s injuries appear to be easing, new concerns have emerged.
Fresh questions for Willy Kambwala, Mason Mount and Sofijan Amrabat mean United’s list of absences has once again swelled into double figures ahead of the semi-finals, with Marcus Rashford and Scott McTominay both seemed to have problems when they were substituted at Wembley.
Marcus Rashford leaves the pitch after suffering an injury at Wembley (Glyn Kirk/AFP via Getty Images)
Ten Hag believes the absence of his first-choice left-back for much of the season has had a significant impact on United’s ability to play the way he wants. The absence of Lisandro Martinez leaves him without a player who was transformative in his first year in Manchester.
But is it all down to luck or could some things have gone differently? United have moved to restructure their medical department since he appointed head of sports medicine Gary O’Driscoll. Sources, who asked not to be named to protect their relationship, believe things have improved significantly since the former Arsenal doctor’s arrival and that the restructure is still proceeding apace.
Ten Hag’s training methods have also come under scrutiny and can be intense, especially for those not competing, who undergo rigorous training the day after a game to maintain a consistent physical condition across the team load level. The fast, direct and often chaotic style of play adopted this season must also be considered part of the equation.
Statistically speaking, Manchester United’s style of play has resulted in performances that have a fair amount of good luck balancing out the bad.
It’s no secret by now that United face a lot of chances – 574 in total in the Premier League this season. No top-flight team faces so many opponents per game, but against the backdrop of recent history, the numbers have only become more remarkable.
Since the 2016-17 season, eight of the 15 top-flight teams that have faced more shots than Manchester United have been relegated. No one finished higher than 15th. At the current rate, United will surpass all 15 of these teams, but even in the absolute worst-case scenario, they won’t finish lower than 14th.
Ten Hag has defended United’s apparent willingness to give up shots on goal, arguing that these chances were mainly of low quality, and he has a point. The average shot chances United have faced in the league this season is 10%.
Andre Onana has been busy this season (Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)
Brentford and Newcastle have the worst records in this area, with an average of 13% of their chances on goal. The difference between the odds of 13% and 10% is small, but significant. Marginal gain, if you will.
But if you concede at least 20 shots per game, as Manchester United have been doing so often recently, and concede one goal for every 10 shots, then you need to score three goals to win. The eighth-worst offense in the league, with only 47 goals scored in 32 league games, cannot be counted on.
Manchester United’s 47 goals are level with Luton Town and in line with expectations. Defensively, Ten Hag’s side have conceded 48 goals – one of the best records in the Premier League – but have an expected total of 59.8 goals conceded.
Excluding one of them, United’s expected goal difference is -12.2, fifth-highest in the league. Suddenly, an actual goal difference of -1 doesn’t look so bad.
But nothing can change the perception and narrative of a team, at least in the short term, like a favorable run of fixtures, and United will now face the Premier League’s bottom two teams at Old Trafford in four days.
It goes without saying, but by any combined measure United are better than Sheffield United and Burnley. They don’t need luck to prove it.
(Top photo: Glyn Kirk/AFP via Getty Images)
