Government officials have buried analysis of the financial prospects of some of Britain’s most vulnerable farmers after realizing it was almost entirely bad news, The Guardian can reveal.
The analysis was meant to be part of an upbeat view on the financial well-being of Highland farmers, some of the poorest in the country, but minutes of meetings about the scheme, obtained through a freedom of information request, show concerns about the negative findings.
Farming groups said it was “irresponsible” not to publish the analysis because ministers didn’t like it, after Freedom of Information documents revealed officials refused to publish it.
According to the meeting minutes:
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One official commented: “Ultimately there may be no path to success. We only want to release it if we have something positive to tell people.”
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Government officials acknowledge that dryland farmers are in financial crisis and may go out of business.
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Officials fear highland farmers will sell their land when they see data showing how much money they can make.
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Officials believe highland farmers have little regard for the environment.
Many highland farmers are left to rely on the EU-derived Basic Payments Scheme (BPS) to survive financially, which is due to be phased out completely in 2027.
A post-Brexit farm subsidy scheme will be available to farmers who restore nature, but will be more accessible to those who own land. Many upland farmers are commoners or tenant farmers, and many of the most profitable options under the BPS alternative, such as creating wildflower meadows, improving soil health and reducing pesticide use, are for lowland arable farms. This means Highland farmers are worried about losing the BPS and not making enough money to make ends meet under the new scheme.
In a bid to change this, ministers have asked Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs officials to develop a “Road to Success Plan” for Highland farmers in 2022, showcasing different ways to make farms profitable under the new scheme.
But in a series of meetings that year, officials raised concerns about the financial analysis and the overall plan and concluded it was best not to release them. The reasons were varied, with one official saying it was “a matter of waiting for the political situation to stabilize”. Another said: “[it is] It’s important that we make sure ministers are happy with what we’re delivering to the public environment – the sensitivity around that. “
An official told a meeting they were waiting for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs to know “the number of people expected to go bankrupt”, adding that many would take the opportunity to downsize or sell their farms. However, they added: “If you include land sales as an option, then be concerned – the option of selling is dangerous. We should be focusing on how to keep rural communities there.” Another official said: “Agreed , it’s capital, not income – a personal choice. It’s not a path to success.”
Participants also felt that Highland farmers, many of whom work in England’s national parks, do not care about the environment: “So far, a lot of people have been dismissive of the environmental aspect – getting good engagement on that is a challenge.”
Officials concluded: “We are unable to share economic analysis for the foreseeable future and cannot commit to a specific date for sharing information.” The information has not yet been shared with farmers or the public.
Julia Aglionby, Professor of Practice at the University of Cumbria, chairs the Highland Alliance, which represents mountain farmers and upland land managers, while the path to a successful partnership with Defra is underway. She said it would be “irresponsible” not to publish the analysis.
“It is disappointing and irresponsible that Defra has not published modeling and impact assessments of the new ELM. [environmental land management] Policy for farmers in mountainous areas. The lack of transparency understandably worries this vulnerable group of farmers,” Aglionbi said.
“In the Highlands, there is huge potential to provide more for nature and climate adaptation while securing livelihoods for the future. More than seven years on from the Brexit referendum, Defra have yet to fully detail their proposals for wilderness and commons. The promise of tomorrow’s jam is disappearing.”
The minutes of the meeting reveal the dire situation of the highland farmers. Speaking at a meeting, one official said: “Many highland farmers are rapidly falling into financial crisis and a knee-jerk survival reaction will not lead to anything of value in the long term.”
They added: “The nature of the transformation means highland agricultural businesses cannot see a future for themselves – highland farmers do not understand the steps to running a thriving business.”
Lib Dem environment spokesman Farron said the impacts were already being seen by farmers in his Cumbria constituency, which has many hill farms. “These shocking revelations confirm once and for all that this government knows full well that their diabolical new subsidy policy is a disaster for Highland farmers,” Fallon said.
“Family farms in my area have been devastated by this gross incompetence. We now risk losing a generation of family farmers who not only feed us but are also the guardians of the British countryside. This is huge for farming and the environment A hard hit.”
Gavin Lane, vice-president of the Rural Land and Business Association, which represents rural land, property and business owners in England and Wales, said: “If Highland farmers are forced to sell their land it will eradicate long-standing traditions and destroy local communities. Highland Farmers Wants to help tackle the climate crisis, but needs viable payments and a clear path forward.”
A Defra spokesman said: “British highland farmers are vital to the success of our scheme. We reject claims about the scheme’s path to success and use what we learn from the scheme to help develop policy to improve dryland farming .
“We have just announced the biggest upgrade to our farming schemes since leaving the EU and are working with upland farmers to improve payment rates, in many cases against those in existing agreements. We are also developing a range of new plans for bogland actions for which farmers can pay, providing greater flexibility.
“We have something for farmers of all types to support them in producing food sustainably while protecting nature and improving the environment, and we will continue to listen to feedback so that our plans work in the best possible way.”
The National Farmers Union conference opens today.
