A study has found that the likelihood of seemingly “never-ending” rainfall in the UK and Ireland last autumn and winter increased by 10 times and humidity increased by 20% due to human-caused global warming.
A dozen storms battered the region between October and March, making it the second-wettest period on record in nearly two centuries. The downpours caused severe flooding, at least 20 deaths, severe damage to homes and infrastructure, power outages, trip cancellations and severe losses of crops and livestock.
Without the climate crisis, rainfall from storms would only occur once every 50 years, but as global warming has reached 1.2 degrees Celsius in recent years, it is now expected to occur once every five years. The analysis shows that if the burning of fossil fuels does not decrease quickly and global temperatures reach 2 degrees Celsius in the next year or two, such severe wet weather will occur on average once every three years.
Experts behind the study have warned that efforts to protect people in the UK and Ireland remain “woefully lacking”, with poor and vulnerable groups being hit hardest. For example, some people don’t have access to dehumidifiers used to dry flooded homes because of high energy costs, while others can’t afford to replace frozen food lost after storms cut power.
The analysis, conducted by climate scientists from the World Weather Attribution Group, compared the likelihood and intensity of wet winters in today’s hot world with those in a world without high levels of carbon emissions. Warmer air can hold more water vapor, producing more rainfall. Hundreds of “attribution studies” show that global warming has exacerbated extreme weather such as heat waves, wildfires, droughts and storms around the world.
Dr Mark McCarthy, a climate scientist at the Met Office and a member of the WWA team, said: “The seemingly never-ending rainfall in the UK and Ireland this autumn and winter has had a significant impact. “In the future we can expect further increases – this is Why it’s so important for us to adapt to a changing climate and become more resilient.”
Dr Sarah Kew, researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and member of the WWA team, said: “The UK and Ireland face a wetter, damper and moldier future due to climate change. Until the world reduces emissions to net zero, the climate will continue to change. Rainfall will continue to increase across the UK and Ireland.
The study covered the most destructive storms Babette, Ciaran, Genk and Isabella. Another analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit found that arable crop losses due to heavy rain in the UK alone will cost farmers around £1.2 billion compared with average yields over the past decade. Vegetable growers will suffer further losses.
Dr Ellie Murtaugh, head of UK climate adaptation at the British Red Cross, said: “We know that flooding has a devastating impact on people’s lives. The effects can be felt months or even years later.
She said storms and floods had led to an increase in weather-related home insurance claims in the UK by more than a third, with claims worth a record £573m. One in seven people are uninsured, and many say they cannot afford it.
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British ministers have been criticized for years for failing to put in place adequate plans to protect people from the effects of global warming. In July, the government’s latest climate adaptation plan was condemned by experts as “very weak”.
“The level of implementation of adaptation interventions remains woefully inadequate,” Murtagh said. “Independent assessments in both the UK and Ireland have highlighted the lack of progress.”
Dr Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-founder of WWA, said: “Climate change is, frankly, already making life worse. Wet winters have left farms flooded, football matches canceled and sewage systems overflowing. [making] Groceries are more expensive.
“Thankfully, we know the solutions. Replace oil, gas and coal with cleaner, cheaper renewable energy; insulate homes and restore nature. All of this will make life cheaper and better for everyone, Rather than more expensive.
