Senior sources in Brussels say the EU will not rush to restart Brexit talks with the UK even if Labor takes power next Thursday.
They say they welcome the change of government, but the deep scars left by the Conservative Party in Brexit negotiations, new priorities stemming from the war in Ukraine and the rise of the far right weigh heavily on the minds of influential figures in Brussels.
“It’s not that people have a good view of the UK, it’s not that they have a bad view of the UK. They’re not thinking about the UK at all,” said a senior source close to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Another senior source warned that while Labor could expect “no appetite from European governments for Brexit”.
“Britain is simply not on people’s minds. We are fighting two wars – reopening Brexit negotiations will require a lot of political capital and absorb a lot of resources from Brussels.
If Marine Le Pen wins a majority in the French election, France could see a Margaret Thatcher-style dispute over tax refunds, which could also spell trouble for protracted negotiations on a long-term EU budget after 2027, while Ukraine’s potential EU membership has already complicated negotiations.
Senior sources at the European Commission also said the UK would have to make a big offer in return for any concessions to strengthen ties with the other occupied blocs.
“If we are asked to send a gift to Britain, the question will be what we get in exchange. People will ask, is the pain worth it?” said a senior diplomat in Brussels.
Labor leader Keir Starmer has ruled out rejoining the customs union or single market, saying it would bring “turmoil” but said he wanted improvements in trade, research and development, defense and security and education Relationship. Carbon pricing and a rejig of expensive chemicals regulation are also likely to be on the incoming Labor government’s wish list.
The UK government will also seek to renegotiate a new veterinary deal that could remove many checks on food and agricultural products exported to the EU, although one UK government insider warned this could bring “years of of pain” and may not be that attractive to the UK. London imagines Brussels.
Anand Menon, professor of European politics at King’s University and director of the British “Changing Europe” think tank, also believes that the views of some Labor Party figures are out of touch with the reality of Europe in 2024.
“The first thing we need to understand is that we are not a priority. They have more important things to do than any improvements to the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). We have to give them what many European countries are craving.
He told a car industry event last week that many Labor supporters believed the EU would be more favorable to Keir Starmer just because he was not a Tory, which was a wrong assumption.
He said the EU would be very hesitant to reopen the TCA, partly because it would be “very good” for the EU, but also because Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made it more “inward-looking, more protectionist in nature”. A series of policies aimed at ensuring the security of EU energy, food and critical raw materials.
On the other hand, paradoxically, changes in the political landscape of the EU, with the far right gaining power, may also give Labor a boost, as the likes of Geert Wilders or Marine Le Pen would Elected to power in France, he may push policies “just to annoy Brussels,” Menon said.
Paradoxically, if France’s EU membership and Macron’s position are weakened by Marine Le Pen’s electoral victory, an alliance with Labour’s Britain could rise sharply to appeal to Berlin and others less like Macron Countries so keen to punish Brexit.
Changes at the top of the European Commission could also give new impetus to negotiations with the UK. Maroš Šefčovič, who has been the main interlocutor on UK relations since Brexit, has been endorsed by Slovak President Peter Pellegrini for a second term but is expected to The new Board of Commissioners will not continue to serve in the same position.
May’s Europe adviser Ollie Robbins is also likely to return to Whitehall, possibly as cabinet secretary.
Brussels insiders say Erasmus is a low-hanging fruit that the UK can use to build a disproportionate amount of goodwill with the new Shefkovic.
“Re-entry into Erasmus has huge political implications for capitals. Exiting the program is unfair and a punishment for young people by those at Bullingdon Club.
Negotiations on a youth mobility scheme are also likely to fawn, despite Brussels’ surprise proposal being roundly rejected by Labor and the Conservatives in April.
The backdrop to the proposal now suggests politics are at play, giving Starmer ample room for maneuver.
Sources said Britain proposed a youth mobility scheme with six countries including France but Brussels was in “complete panic” fearing some member states would break off and strike unilateral deals, prompting von der Leyen to speak during the leaders’ meeting. This blockbuster proposal was made.
Industry insiders say the UK government will not fund the cost of accommodation for EU students at UK universities, showing how poorly thought through the Brussels document was, but outside a highly charged election environment it should be seen as a “starting point” and an “olive branch” “. branch”.
Diplomats also said the EU had been “keen” to strike a more formal security and defense deal and discuss policies to coordinate a carbon pricing scheme that would include taxes on greenhouse gas emissions produced in imports and exports.
