The Army-Navy game holds a special and unique place on the college football calendar.
Given the rivalry’s history, intensity and pageantry, its importance is undeniable. It’s literally the only game on the Saturday after the division championship weekend in December. However, the stakes of the game often don’t matter when it comes to rankings or national title contention.
This year, the situation is complicated.
The service academies are both undefeated and ranked among the best. The 12-team College Football Playoff means the No. 23 Black Knights (7-0) and the No. 24 Midshipmen (6-0) are bona fide playoff contenders — if they If one of them can win the American Athletic Conference.
But the playoff field will be held on Dec. 8, six days before the annual Army-Navy game kicks off in Landover, Maryland. The game on the 14th may be the second meeting between the two teams in a season.
Here’s a look at how things might change.
How did we get here?
Army quarterback Bryson Daily leads all FBS players with 19 rushing touchdowns. (Lucas Bolan/Imagn Images)
This is the first time since 1926 that Army and Navy have started a season with a 6-0 record.
The Black Knights are currently 7-0 and have yet to trail in a game. Naturally, they lead the nation in rushing offense, led by quarterback Bryson Daily, who has thrown 26 total touchdowns. Army is already 6-0 in AAC play, which means it only has two conference games left (at North Texas, UTSA).
The Midshipmen enter a marquee game against No. 12 Notre Dame at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., with a record of 6-0 and 4-0 in AAC play. This is already their best season since 2019, when they won 11 games.
Army and Navy currently occupy the top two spots in the AAC standings.
So…does this mean they can play two games?
Yes—and on consecutive weeks. They will likely face off in the conference championship game on Dec. 6 and resume their annual rivalry on Dec. 14.
But Tulane is not far behind with a 3-0 conference record and will face Navy on Nov. 16. .
Will the Army vs. Navy game count toward the CFP?
Potential encounters in the AAC tournament will be. But not the annual neutral-site game.
Selection day for the postseason is Sunday, Dec. 8, and the annual Army-Navy game will be held the following Saturday. In the four-team playoff era, the selection committee had a protocol that allowed it to wait for Army-Navy if it had an impact on the field. But with the 12-team playoffs set to begin on the weekend of December 20-21, there’s no waiting for results this time.
That means there’s a scenario where a service academy wins the AAC and earns a berth in the CFP, then loses in the final game of the regular season to the same opponent it beat to advance to the playoffs.
Of course, there will still be bragging rights.
Will Army or Navy have less time to prepare for the playoffs?
With no other teams playing the week of Dec. 14, if any of the service academies earn a spot in the playoffs, they have less time to prepare against their playoff opponents.
What are the chances of Army or Navy making the playoffs?
Army or Navy have a 29.6% chance of making the playoffs, but the individual percentages for both teams will look a little different depending on the outcome of the following games.
If Navy beats Notre Dame on Saturday, the Midshipmen’s odds of making the playoffs will rise to 10 percent, according to a predictive model CompetitorAustin Mock. If there is a loss, this ratio drops to 5%.
The Army faced an easier opponent in the Air Force, so the Cadets had a higher win rate: 30% win rate and 14% defeat rate. Army also has to face Notre Dame on Nov. 23 at Yankee Stadium.
Mock’s model shows Army has a 63% chance of winning the AAC, while Navy has a 15% chance.
go deeper
What do Army and Navy’s historic starts mean for the AAC championship? Financial planner?
What else do both teams need to do to make the playoffs?
Two things need to happen. First, it’s obvious that Army or Navy are going to go on to win and win the AAC. As average teams, neither team is likely to make the playoffs.
Second, they probably need the Mountain West to beat each other up. Boise State (5-1) is currently ranked ahead of Army and Navy, with the Broncos’ only blemish being a road loss at Oregon State.
Another team to worry about in the Mountain West is UNLV (6-1). Boise State faces the University of Nevada, Las Vegas on Friday, which will have a major impact on the Group of Five playoff race.
If you wanted a backing guide for Army or Navy heading into the CFP, I’d probably back UNLV to turn things around this weekend and then continue backing those two teams to lose down the stretch. — Austin Mock
Has Army or Navy ever won a national championship?
Led by 1946 Heisman Trophy winner Glenn Davis, Army won national championships in 1944, 1945 and 1946.
Yes, but the specifics are a little complicated because college football doesn’t always host a national championship game.
Army won the national championship five times (1914, 1916, 1944, 1945, 1946), although multiple events won the title in four of those years. Likewise, the Navy also received the national title in 1926.
The last time these two teams were in the AP top 10 was 1964, when Navy peaked at No. 6.
What to do next?
Army joins Air Force (1-6), North Texas (5-2), Notre Dame (6-1), UTSA (3-4) and Navy to close out the regular season.
Navy finished with Notre Dame, Rice (2-5), South Florida (3-4), Tulane (5-2), East Carolina (3-4) and Army.
(Top photo: Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
