What the Chiefs need to do to win
run the ball. The Niners’ run defense has been poor all season. Over the past two months, they have sunk to a level where they can barely perform. For all the flaws in this version of the Chiefs’ offense, one thing they’ve been able to do is run hard. They were able to win in tough games thanks to the unique style of Isiah Pacheco, a running back who runs like a llama escaping the pen. If KC can run the ball early, they will be able to establish the flow of the game and limit the exposure of their shorthanded receiving corps. Oak
Catch the ball? Chiefs lost home field advantage due to finger issue. But to Patrick Mahomes’ huge credit, he’s never given up on his receivers — and they’ve stepped up for him in the playoffs so far. Rookie Rashe Rice has emerged as a threat downfield, and Travis Kelce — who has been hampered by injuries for much of the year — had a near-perfect performance at receiver in the AFC Championship Game. Both will once again have big nights against the Niners’ suspected secondary, especially if Pacheco isn’t tracked. AL
defense In the Chiefs’ first two games, he went against two of the best quarterbacks in the league in Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, largely due to a stellar secondary. If things stay the same on Sunday, Mahomes and Pacheco, who is averaging 84.7 yards per game this postseason, should be able to close out the game. TL
Andy Reid must engineer the offense Let Rice have an explosive performance. The rookie caught a lot of passes in KC’s win over the Ravens, but Baltimore kept him from getting deep into the backfield. If Rice isn’t in the game, the Chiefs will be in trouble in shootouts because hitting Kelce over and over in the middle of the field is too predictable. GS
What the 49ers need to do to win
Winning the turnover battle. I know. This is basic. But trying to contain Mahomes for four quarters is impossible. He’s going to find a way to put points on the board. The Niners’ offense needs to be patient and not press too early. If Brock Purdy has a clean game, San Francisco’s defensive giants — Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw — can force turnovers that turn the game around. Oak
Feed Christian McCaffrey. The Niners are at their best when their offense flows through McCaffrey, who is as dangerous running the ball between the tackles as he is catching the ball in the air. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo expects blitzes from all directions, and McCaffrey will play a big role in taking the pressure off Purdy, who will be playing in his most important game to date. The faster CMC moves forward, the more opportunities it will open up for Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and other playmakers in San Francisco. AL
Get version number Purdy wins game with wild performance Way to beat the Lions, not a crazy play that just attacks opposing defenses. Purdy is going to YOLO ball at some point, and Niners fans can only hope it works. TL
Defense needs to be strengthened. A team that was, if not a great team, collapsed in the playoffs due to talk of a lack of effort from the team itself. If big games don’t motivate them to at least start trying to stop the run, Pacheco will give the Chiefs a great platform to build from. GS
Chiefs key players
Nick Bolton, guard. If you add up their playoff performances, the Chiefs’ defense ranks first in EPA per game, a measure of bottom-up efficiency. A lot of that will depend on the quality of the team’s cornerbacks and Spagnuolo’s magic. But no offense puts pressure on opposing linebackers like the Niners did. Leo Chenal was an outstanding supporter of KC this year. But Bolton is more of a comprehensive, first-in-class type. He has to do his best to tip the balance in the Chiefs’ favor. Oak
Max Valdes-Scantling, wide receiver. His turnovers and neutral zone violations put the Chiefs in trouble during key moments in the regular season. In order to give Kansas City a fair chance to beat San Francisco in the Super Bowl, MVS can’t make any mistakes. AL
Patrick Mahomes, quarterback. I’d love to come up with some nerdy metrics as to why special teams players ultimately decide this game. Yes, we know he doesn’t actually have any receivers. But when you have Michael Jordan, why worry about anyone else? TL
Harrison Butker, kicker. Bartek replaced the obvious. He was as clutch as they come, having a perfect record with seven shots on goal in seven attempts in the playoffs. If the game goes down to the wire, Butker won’t hesitate to tie the ribbon on another KC crown. He did it last year. GS
49ers key players
Brock Purdy, quarterback. There are two scenarios for this game: a tense, cagey contest in which a single mistake decides the outcome; and a track meet in which two offensive players trade hay. In either case, Purdy will be under pressure to deliver. The Niners couldn’t afford to give the Chiefs the ball the extra possession. Oak
Nick Bosa, defensive end. There’s no doubt Bosa can get sacks with the best of them. The problem with him is that when he’s enthusiastic about rushing the backfield, he can overdo it, creating opportunities for quarterback escapes or running backs to miss on defenses at the next level. By improving his work setting the edge, Bosa can keep Mahomes in the pocket and allow the Niners’ linebacker group to better stop the Chiefs quarterback and his running backs from breaking up big plays. AL
Fred Warner, guard. The Chiefs utilized their running game well in the playoffs, and the Lions crushed the Niners early in the NFC Championship Game. Therefore, Warner needs to stay close to his usual All-Pro level to keep the Niners competitive. TL
Christian McCaffrey, running back. Kansas City’s defense is very good, but they haven’t faced a running back as devastating as this year’s incoming offense. His talent seemed to have no end. Regardless of Purdy’s level, San Francisco had great shooting opportunities and McCaffrey dominated the handoffs. GS
a bold prediction
Choose one of six to decide the game. Let’s back up the funniest scenario: In a game with a tied score, the ball is in the quarterback’s hands with two minutes left. This is a traditional drive. Both defenses are aggressive and loaded with star playmakers. One mistake, or one great defensive play, can close the door to a comeback victory. There have been 15 six-man shows in Super Bowl history. If a team wins a game on Sunday, they will be crowned champions. Oak
Kadarius Tony enters the chat room. The Chiefs’ rotational receiver has been sulking about his health throughout the postseason, though he’s had enough turnovers to justify the move. But don’t be surprised if Reed changes his mind and figures out a way to get Tony involved in some gadgets or return to the game. AL
Vegas becomes permanent home of Super Bowl By 2034. As the NFL became more closely associated with gambling, it decided that Las Vegas would be the ideal location for the big game. There’s no shortage of hotel rooms and entertainment facilities, either, and most accommodations within the stadium are within walking distance—an impossibility for every Super Bowl host. TL
Usher promised he would roller skate during the halftime show.When one of his supporters crashed into another skater, the world collectively let out a collective chant of “Oh my God!” and an epic domino rally ended in The usher stacked it in the largest position. Things were bad for Janet Jackson, but things were even worse for Usher. GS
Which of these teams is most likely to be here next year?
This is the Chiefs. The Niners are about to be hit by the salary cap, which means they will lose some key contributors this offseason. The Chiefs have a weak roster, but they have Mahomes — and some of the most talented young defensemen in the league. Oak
Chiefs. Mahomes and Reid are the new Brady and Belichick. You bet against them at your own risk. AL
With Mahomes at the helm, the Chiefs will remain competitive for the next decade. But they also play in the AFC, which is loaded with quarterback talent, so getting to the Super Bowl through that route will be much more difficult than through the NFC.Purdy still holds cheap contract 49ers Should be able to retain some of their stars, even if their salary cap situation isn’t great. TL
49ers. Both are possible, but Kyle Shanahan’s team is ahead as six of the Chiefs’ starting backs could potentially hit the open market via free agency. There’s no doubt that Spagnuolo will create another solid roster, but make up for the potential loss of tackle Chris Jones, cornerback LaJarius Snead and linebacker Drew Tranquill, among others. will be difficult. Purdy is signed for another year on his rookie deal and should put the 49ers ahead of other teams in the weaker NFC. GS
The MVP will be…
Travis Kelce. If the Chiefs have a chance, they’ll need Kelce and Mahomes to overcome structural and skill issues with the players around them. The duo has reached a Brady-Gronk level in the playoffs: everyone knows where the ball is going and it’s still hard to stop them. The Chiefs need Kelce to dominate the game, even if the Niners allocate as many resources as possible to slowing him down. Oak
Mahomes. Three points would tie him with Montana and Brady and push the most heated debate ever to 11 points. AL
The MVP has played quarterback or receiver in the past seven Super Bowls. Last year it was Mahomes, so let’s go catch it this time. Since everyone loves narrative, why not make MVS the MVP Max Valdes-ScantlingThe punchline for much of the season, he racked up 128 yards and two touchdowns. TL
Brock Purdy. The story ends when San Francisco wins the Super Bowl. His hero’s journey has been taken only by legends: David, Luke Skywalker, and now Mr. Irrelevant. Expect multiple touchdown passes, an interception on a haymaking attempt, and some dangerous rushes. While not as talented as Mahomes, he is an important cog in a high-tech machine like the Chiefs that beat the 49ers in 2020. Fortunately, the doubters will have to calm down, at least until summer. “But he’s just a game manager,” they said. Isn’t that the quarterback’s job? GS
The final score will be…
49ers 24-27 Chiefs. This is one of those thoughtful choices. The Niners are a more well-rounded team. The Chiefs have a great defense but no answers as to the specific pressure the Niners offense puts on opponents. But they also have the most talented players on the planet in the most valuable position in the game. This is Mahomes’ choice. The Chiefs shouldn’t be here; they’re a flawed team with the worst offensive unit of Mahomes’ career. But he’s still Mahomes — and it’s hard to compete with the quarterback continuing his dynasty run. Oak
49ers 24-30 Chiefs. Purdy played well, but Chiefs D got the better of him in the end. AL
49ers 14-31 Chiefs. It would be interesting to see the Niners win since they haven’t won a championship this century/millennium and the Chiefs are already a modern dynasty. But it won’t be close: The Niners were lucky enough to beat the Packers, and without a few strokes of luck, they might lose to the Lions. The team’s defense struggled in both games, resulting in games that could have gone either way. The Ravens beat San Francisco on Christmas Day, and the Chiefs will do the same on Sunday. TL
49ers 33-28 Chiefs. Heart or head? Well, ego trumps both. The 49ers are my preseason favorite, you have to stick with it, don’t you? (I also have to work hard to salvage the credibility of suggesting the Ravens will miss the playoffs.) Shanahan is going to cook up something truly special to get his first ring. Next year’s trilogy battle will be intense. GS
